tsptalk's Market Talk

[wavecoder]

AGG and Gold just spiked big time.. hmmm...

edit: and the SPX also. something's a brewing haha. People hedging bets before the fed meeting? sounds like risky business, like buying stocks before earnings report

 

[burrocrat]

AGG and Gold just spiked big time.. hmmm...

edit: and the SPX also. something's a brewing haha. People hedging bets before the fed meeting? sounds like risky business, like buying stocks before earnings report

unless you know what's in the earnings report...

 

[tsptalk]

If this can hold up here above the 200 EMA, it's a very good development.

 

[tsptalk]

The SPY did this a few days ago, but the S%P 500 Index itself has now filled its open gap from the first trading day in January.

 

[tsptalk]

I notice the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagging this morning. If this is a new bull market it usually means new leaders will emerge. That may be the case because some of the leaders of the prior bull market are still lagging badly compared to the major indices...

 

[wavecoder]

CNN's Fear & Greed Index seems pretty useful for looking for a good time to buy. Buy fear sell greed :smile:

 

[tsptalk]

Holding in high 70's.

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year treasury yield has made a triple bearish pattern which, if they play out as T/A would have us believe, could be bullish for bonds prices and the F-fund going forward.

 

[tsptalk]

Like the AGG bond chart I post in my commentary, gold is also in a pennant formation and surprisingly the bullish pattern broke down - mostly because the dollar has been rising. But these patterns can do the fake-out / breakout dance so give it a few days to before declaring this a breakdown. Plus it would have to rebound back into the pennant to fill the open gap created this morning. I'm not a gold bug by any means - I don't own any at the moment - although buying some for a quick trade to fill that gap is on my radar. I just like to watch how common T/A patterns play out.

 

[wavecoder]

I noticed I have a tougher time being bullish without Birch around

 

[tsptalk]

I noticed I have a tougher time being bullish without Birch around

How's this.... Stocks are up? Great, I'm making money! Stocks are down? Great, I can buy more!

 

[wavecoder]

How's this.... Stocks are up? Great, I'm making money! Stocks are down? Great, I can buy more!

Forgot to add more golden prices for my dividend buybacks, my wallflowers will accumulate more shares in time for SPX to run up to 4000 *snort* :laugh:

 

[tsptalk]

Oil futures moved down overnight and early today, but stabilized for most of the day until the last few minutes...

 

[wavecoder]

Only a modest day down for the DOW and SPX, but small caps (IWM) got totally slammed today.

It seems like large caps have been showing more strength the past few months, and I always heard Birch saying the end of bull runs are near when large caps outperform. Could this be it?

 

[tsptalk]

This morning's open gap has been filled and now the SPY may be running into some resistance. Getting above 204 will be an important area in this last half hour of trading and into next week. It's the last 30 minutes of trading before a 3-day market weekend so I won't rule anything out.

 

[tsptalk]

The 3:33 pre-holday whoop!

 

[JTH]

The 10-year treasury yield has made a triple bearish pattern which, if they play out as T/A would have us believe, could be bullish for bonds prices and the F-fund going forward.

Great stuff Tom, for the PnF scale I use on AGG (which is different than my other indexes) I show we're at a major Triple Top.

Based on the patterns (which resemble candlesticks) it looks like we're poised to flag/pennant up...

 

[tsptalk]

Thank, JTH. Here's the latest. Possible breakdown in the yield next week after the small red bear flag broke...

 

[wavecoder]

GDP report tomorrow. Question is would a negative GDP report be an up day for stocks on monday because we're still in the 'bad news is good news' market? Seems like what wall street is fearing the most is a rate hike

 

[wavecoder]

GDP report beats expectations, +1.4% vs the predicted 1.0%. In the past this would have been good for the markets, in this central bank manipulated market though, who the heck knows? lol