tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

That is a little odd. A good sign, I don't know. But a 600 decline to a 260 decline is less panicky.

What's even more strange is why the inverse VIX ETF's were down Friday and Monday.

XIV,SVXY | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison | YAHOO! Finance

 

[tsptalk]

Surprising... London's FTSE Index closed at its highest level since mid-April What Brexit?

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Brexit scared me so I got out early. Is there a bottom in sight?

Yes, but it is in the rearview mirror! :why:

 

[tsptalk]

London FTSE closes at 10-month high.

Surprising... London's FTSE Index closed at its highest level since mid-April What Brexit?

 

[tsptalk]

The rest of Europe is still struggling...

 

[tsptalk]

Oil down 5%. Gold up. Bonds up. Stocks down. It could be some post-holiday profit taking in stocks, but together it's not a great combination for the economic outlook.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't know how long London and the rest of Europe can move in opposite directions, but it sure makes thinks interesting for the I-fund. Great Britain markets are the 2nd largest holding in the I-fund (Japan is #1). Other European markets have been getting pounded. Brexit sure shook things up.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is close to new all-time highs, but still short (although near a 52-week high). The SPY did make a new high, and that is more in line with our C-fund. The difference is the dividends paid that we get in the form of a higher C-fund price.

SPY

SPY

S&P 500 Index

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds are up too? :scratchchin:

 

[userque]

Yeah, market has been 'unique' since 6-13 imo.

 

[tsptalk]

After more than a year (May 2015), a new high was made on the S&P 500 this morning.

Weekly chart:

 

[tsptalk]

Transports have run up to, and stalled at, the 200-day EMA, but have 20 minutes left to try to close above it.

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow just made a new all-time high this morning, and the Transports may be breaking out from their descending channel. It's early, so let's see where they close.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The Dow just made a new all-time high this morning, and the Transports may be breaking out from their descending channel. It's early, so let's see where they close.

Prior to this rally it seems like the C fund was gaining more than the S fund. Now it is reversed. Have any idea why?

 

[Cactus]

It has more catching up to do.

 

[tsptalk]

Prior to this rally it seems like the C fund was gaining more than the S fund. Now it is reversed. Have any idea why?

Probably interest rates. Small caps depend on borrowed money more than large caps and now that rates look like they'll stay down a little longer, it helps the outlook for small caps.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Probably interest rates. Small caps depend on borrowed money more than large caps and now that rates look like they'll stay down a little longer, it helps the outlook for small caps.

I'll buy that.

 

[tsptalk]

This breakout in the dollar is probably not a good sign for the I-fund.

 

[tsptalk]

Two important breakouts from bull flags this morning...

 

[tsptalk]

From Monday's commentary:

"One of the more import charts is this weekly chart of the Transports. It looks like a very large inverted head and shoulders pattern, which would produce a very bullish upside target if it can breakout, but inverted H&S patterns can be continuation patterns, continuing the larger trend that it was in before the H&S, which in this case was down. So, it is very important for this market leader to move above 8000 with some authority before we can say this is bullish."

More: TSP Talk - Market Commentary

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/3799-new-highs.html