The Hindenburg Omen

[James48843]

I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.

 

[bmneveu]

I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.

Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered!

 

[Bquat]

Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered!

Yeah I'm right there with you buddy. I didn't realize the threat of stopping the money pump would effect the F fund also.:embarrest:

 

[bmneveu]

By the way, as of this morning -- The Hindenburg Omen is officially offline and not issuing any new signals due to the 50 day MA turning south at the open.

Don't mistake this for thinking we are in the clear though. We are still very much in the thick of the event.

Edit: Which is possibly coinciding perfectly with Tom's 1987 chart comparison.

 

[bmneveu]

Is the event over? If so, I would say the HO signal was a success, calling a decent correction of 4.8% from 1652 to 1573.

 

[Birchtree]

A correction doesn't happen until we lose 10% or more - we experienced a mild consolidation. If the Kress cycles are important hell arrives in 2014.

 

[tsptalk]

Is the event over? If so, I would say the HO signal was a success, calling a decent correction of 4.8% from 1652 to 1573.

Close...

"From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%"

"Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines."

- WSJ

 

[bmneveu]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

 

[bmneveu]

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

I haven't seen anything yet, but I'm lookin' for ya

 

[James48843]

oh fiddlesticks- not another round of ho's! yuk.

 

[tsptalk]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.

Now I have to mention you in the commentary again.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Birchtree]

We are in the strongest bull market in 65 years - have no fear of Hindenburg. They are simply trying to scare you away from investing.

 

[bmneveu]

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

No signal for the 7th, but there was a 3rd signal yesterday, August 8th. That 3 signals in 4 days, quite a "cluster", as these guys call it (which starts a new event, I am assuming). Some quick facts based on historical results of official signals:

73% chance there will NOT be a major stock market crash!

Decline of at least 2-5% -- 92% chance
Decline of at least 5-8% -- 77% chance
Decline of at least 8-10% -- 54% chance
Decline of at least 10-15% -- 39% chance
Decline of more than 15% -- 27% chance

 

[Warrenlm]

We are in the strongest bull market in 65 years - have no fear of Hindenburg. They are simply trying to scare you away from investing.

This conclusion is supported by Marc Faber becoming the most strident he has ever been about an imminent crash. He's becoming ever more frustrated.

 

[PLANO]

Hasn't he been predicting a major correction about every other month since January??? I guess if you keep saying something often enough, eventually you'll be right.

This conclusion is supported by Marc Faber becoming the most strident he has ever been about an imminent crash. He's becoming ever more frustrated.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

No signal for the 7th, but there was a 3rd signal yesterday, August 8th. That 3 signals in 4 days, quite a "cluster", as these guys call it (which starts a new event, I am assuming). Some quick facts based on historical results of official signals:

73% chance there will NOT be a major stock market crash!

Decline of at least 2-5% -- 92% chance
Decline of at least 5-8% -- 77% chance
Decline of at least 8-10% -- 54% chance
Decline of at least 10-15% -- 39% chance
Decline of more than 15% -- 27% chance

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

 

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.

 

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

And I don't know the answer to your second question. I wish I did. Interesting thought. I could look it up later, maybe this weekend sometime.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.

Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.