The Hindenburg Omen

Sort by newest Sort by date
Looking for confirmation from the NYSE.

Using Refinitiv data, a more stringent construction of the indicator shows a signal popped up Tuesday on the Nasdaq. The last signal developed 12 trading days ahead of the Nasdaq's Feb. 19, 2020 top and what would then prove to be a 33% swoon in the tech-laden index into its March trough. No signal occurred on the NYSE on Tuesday. Its last occurrence was the Feb. 3, 2020 date.
Click to expand...

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/live-markets-hindenburg-omen-buzzing-the-tower-xcdw6ay835bkseu.html
 
Oh great. A Hindenburg Omen- Just when I had dived in.

Well, thank you Bullitt for posting that. Definitely has me on my toes. Here is the NASDAQ chart which also is scary to me today:

Image1614862677.804219.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
Recent Hindenburg Omen signals have produced little downside. But if they start to get ignored, that's when they'll likely be effective again.
 
Agree, there have been so many false alarms with this thing over the years. It's seems to be complicated indicator, but most importantly it follows the new highs and lows coupled with McClellan Oscillator.

Today the lows on the NYSE ended at 154, the highest since March 30 when it was 180. McClellan is also in negative territory currently.
 
That's it.

Third Hindenberg Omen and I'm out. See you in a couple of months- I'm expecting a good retrenchment within 30 days.
 
Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.
 
More often then not, HO warnings are false alarms, but as bullitt said, basically all crashes are preceded by one or more signals. Generally, the more signals in a short period, the more vulnerable the market becomes. Watch the new highs / new lows lists each day. High numbers of both trigger this warning.
 
James48843 said:
Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.
Click to expand...
Link? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 
tom4jean said:
Link? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Go back to the very first post in this thread- and that explains what it is. Thanks. Good luck.

We just had a second and third. Historically, this is from back in June 2007, leading up to the crash in 2008.


“A second and a third!

Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. “

(From earlier in this thread).



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.
 
I read about this too and had a chuckle. :laugh: Not to disparage the bears, but I love how people I haven't heard from for weeks are now coming out to brag "I told you so." But it's ok...everyone deserves to have their day in the sun. :smile:

tsptalk said:
Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.
Click to expand...
 
The Hindenburg Omen is on the clock until December 17, but if bears want to strike, late September to October is a better time seasonality wise.

Timing for Chanos was wrong by more than a decade, so that doesn't mean he was right.
 
More signals?

166 new 52-week highs today on the Nasdaq, 249 new lows. And that was with the Nasdaq 100 closing flat.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Mixed day to start holiday shortened week
Replies
0
Views
740
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Yields rallying causing stocks some trouble
Replies
0
Views
888
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks sell off after modestly soft jobs report
Replies
0
Views
4K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Just what the bulls needed - a boring Fed
Replies
0
Views
140
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The Fed sounds dovish, but inflation data matters
Replies
1
Views
7K
JTH
JTH
Back
Top