The Hindenburg Omen

[bmneveu]

Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.

Yes it should be the 2nd signal for that reason. I'll try to dig in and confirm that the statistics reflect that later as well.

 

[tsptalk]

Dow down 130 - Oh, the humanity!


(I assume it's not too soon for that joke.)

 

[James48843]

Here is another "doom and gloom" report that ties in:

"Dr. Doom says- crash coming."

Dr. Doom: A 1987-style crash is coming - Yahoo! Finance

 

[tsptalk]

I think he'll be on CNBC's Fast Money today at 5 PM ET.

 

[James48843]

Hindenberg Omen spotted just outside of Ardmore, Oklahoma.....

 

[James48843]

Nice writeup of the Hindenberg Omen over in the Christian Science Monitor-
Hindenburg Omen: Time to sell your stocks? - CSMonitor.com

They are saying there were five Omen signals in the last eight trading sessions.


I bailed today. I believe in that stuff.

Good luck.

 

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.

But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!

 

[tsptalk]

Great stuff, bmneveu! Keep it coming!

 

[sniper]

A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.

But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!

let it come, i'm on the sidelines in cash waiting to go all in

 

[bmneveu]

We've retraced about 60 points now on the S&P500 from ~1690 when the 2nd signal fired off on August 6th. That's just over 3.5%. Sure feels like more. I would already consider this another successful prediction, but I won't be surprised to see more selling pressure to come.

 

[James48843]

Note to all- The Hindenburg Omen reappeared on Monday this week- according to this source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chin...ers-the-deadly-hindenburg-omen-163418385.html

Remember we had a series of multiple Hindenburg Omens in November, and now this one this week.

Personally, I'm going to do what I think is prudent, in light of the Omen, plus the Chinese virus thing, plus everything else that is going on.

You do what you want to to- as for me- I'm out, waiting better weather.

If you are not familiar with "The Hindenburg Omen", this thread helps explain it. Go back to the early posts and read.

There is almost nothing NEW in the stock market- it's patterns that seem to repeat from time to time. Part of doing well in the market is recognizing when strange patterns appear, and what to do about them.


Have a great day!

 

[James48843]

There was a series of 8 Hindenburg Omens in late January/early February. It is likely now that the downtrend will continue for some time. I think tomorrow’s bounce will be a one day fluke that will be followed by lower in the six months ahead.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...denburg-omens-betrays-bullish-case-for-stocks



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[James48843]

Blackstone IPO…a sign of a top in the Market?
Meanwhile, another action associated with a market top is the Blackstone Group's initial public offering of its stock (IPO). This is the largest public offering since 2002 , bringing in $4.13 billion. Is the smart money cashing out?
A second Hindenburg sighting...and a third!
Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. :blink::worried:

That was from Member "Showme" back in the summer of 2007. Shortly before a significant market downturn.

We just got another 8-alarm bell Hindenberg Omen end of January- first week of February 2020.

Just saying- watch out.

 

[Bullitt]

Monday was the sixth since January 31, 2020.

Not a timing mechanism because of many false positives, but you can't have a crash without one.

 

[James48843]

I guess everybody here ought to learn about that Hindenburg Omen.

Once again proved it’s worth- did it’s stuff- signaled loudly it was here- just before the crash.





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[tsptalk]

I guess everybody here ought to learn about that Hindenburg Omen.

Once again proved it’s worth- did it’s stuff- signaled loudly it was here- just before the crash.

I was calling it the boy who cried wolf for a couple of years since we saw it so often. I think I wrote about that once or twice. Yup, the boy was right this time.

 

[James48843]

Whenever an Omen appears, I perk up and start running much more extensive reviews every day of what’s happening, just to watch for any unusual things that catch my eye.

In this case, back on 1-31, I saw some funny motions up and down within a range, remembered the Hindenburg Omen had signaled in November, and then did a quick google search, only to find out it had repeated a couple of days before in the last week of January with a series of Omen signals. I had not seen that anywhere else, and so I sat up In my chair, and posted the wArning in this thread on Jan 31st - and moved my own money to safety based on the double Omen of November/Jan. Thank God I did, cause it, plus the signal from TSP Plus system, convinced me something wasn’t right- and that move saved me from a $ 70,000 loss.

So - an Omen, combined with a TSPPlus sell signal, is now, to me, worth its weight in gold.

The problem now is going to be figuring out when a good time to buy back in will be. I’m thinking now it may not be until July or August at the earliest, and could be much, much more severe. The pandemic is the wildcard. Could be a few months, or this could created a HUGE shift in economic activity that hurts for years.


We’ll see. I think Covid-19 is now going to dominate the recession about to hit. It’s going to be a bad one.




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[James48843]

Again, from my 2-25-20 posting-


https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...denburg-omens-betrays-bullish-case-for-stocks


A New Cluster Of Hindenburg Omens Betrays The Bullish Case For Stocks
Feb. 13, 2020 7:16

Summary

While an individual signal has very little value in forecasting a stock market crash, a cluster of signals can be valuable in that it signals a pattern of dispersion that is not compatible with a healthy uptrend.

In the past, these clusters have marked important intermediate and long-term reversals.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen another cluster of 8 individual signals between the NYSE and Nasdaq.

(Link above for complete article)


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[Bullitt]

No Hindenburg warnings out there right now. Just a lot of pre-election uncertainty going on the past two weeks.

 

[bmneveu]

No Hindenburg warnings out there right now. Just a lot of pre-election uncertainty going on the past two weeks.

You fooled me with the thread bump. I saw it and thought, oh man here we go!