The Hindenburg Omen

[Show-me]

http://www.minyanville.com/articles...rg+Omen-breadth-wide-divergence/index/a/14554

 

[James48843]

And here:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Dang- how did we miss that?

Third Hindenberg Omen.


Everybody- expect a nice big fall from here!

 

[qibovin]

Third Hindenberg Omen.


Everybody- expect a nice big fall from here!

Doesn't the original back in June expire after 120 days?
And didn't we already have a >5% (9.7%) decline?
Is this the start of a new omen or a continuation?
Any data on occurances this far apart?

 

[tsptalk]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3882.htm

"Hindenburg Omens are relatively rare. In checking them from 1997, going back to 1970, Jim found that they usually occurred prior to major declines, with relatively few false signals. Sometimes two or three signals occurred in a row, within days of each other. I consider that a signal expires 30 days after its last occurrence, unless a decline has taken place within that time. There was only one signal before the 7% drop in October of 1989, but there were several days of signals in both 1987, and again in June- July before the 20% drop into October, 1990. There were several before the 10% drop in March 1994."

 

[Show-me]

A reminder of the Omen. Does not always come true but when you see one use caution.

 

[alevin]

I will be giving Hindenburgs strong consideration forever after from here on out as sell/wait signal. I've learned from brute experience the last 3 months not to brush them off. I had been out in late October, but went back in 10%C,10%S first week of Nov (Sentiment Survey indicator? don't remember why now). Unfortunately I stayed in all the way til a couple weeks ago. It hurt. At least I stopped the pain lately, but currently poised on knife edge what to do with token F holding between now and upturn in stocks, whenever that happens.

 

[Bullitt]

(Begin humming Dark Side theme from Star Wars before continuing reading)

We got our second Hindenburg Omen of the month yesterday from Dr Doom and Gloom (Robert McHugh). Probability of a panic sell is 41% and the big crash is 24%.

Did you buy your SDS today at the sucker's gap up? Maybe I should have waited on re-balancing my portfolio last week!

Last summer when the Hindenburg came to town, the Dow shed 185 the next day.

So what is a Hindenburg Omen?It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 22 years.All of them. No panic sell-off occurred over the past 22 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen. Another way of looking at it is, without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe. But we have one as of June 22nd, 2007. The way Peter Eliades put it in his Daily Update, September 21, 2005 (Peter is well worth the read, believe me), "The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both." When both new highs and new lows are large, "it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence - many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn't matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs. This is the condition that leads to important market bottoms."

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh062407pv.html

The saga continues...

 

[nnuut]

Hindenburg Omen, I ain't scared of no Hindenburg Omen!! And we don't need no "Stinkin' Badges Senior". Doe's that sound like I'm speaking from the heart? Sometimes the HO is real, most of the time it's NOT!

 

[Fivetears]

...And we don't need no "Stinkin' Badges Senior".

 

[Show-me]

Oh, goodie! Thank you so much for the update as I have been way out of the loop the last few weeks.

 

[James48843]

I missed any talk of Hindenburg Omen.

If that is in fact the case, that aligns with other indicators as well- P&F says down ahead. If there's a Hindenberg going on, then it's all hands to the lifeboats.

 

[luv2read]

twice in the past week Bullyboy.

 

[James48843]

I'm TDY so I missed it before just now. Thanks.

Yes, the P&F chart is also showing a revised downward estimated price objective. I can't post it up from here right now (location, eh? ) but it is now showing 1230 as the downside target figure.

I didn't believe that when I saw it earlier today. But if there is a double hindenburg omen, I believe it.

I'm on the sidelines now- and will keep it there until the dive comes. See you in the mid 1200's. If it happens - and goes back into the mid 1200's- I'm diving back in then.

If not, then, well, the sidelines is a nice place to be today.

 

[airlift]

The article that Corepuncher posted in his thread is sufficient grounds to at least consider very seriously that the Hindenburg Omen might be a reality soon to occur. The article relates to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) advising its clients to be aware of the potential crash. Coming from this institution, one must take this very seriously and consider capital preservation during the summer and through September at least! Bankers are realists and not usually doomsayers...

"RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage."

twice in the past week Bullyboy.

 

[XL-entLady]

"Economic woes are expected to continue until at least mid-2009, and things may get worse before they get better, according to a quarterly survey of chief financial officers. "This could be the longest slowdown since the double dip recession of 1979-81," John Graham, director of the survey, told CNNMoney.com."

And some more Happy Talk. G Fund is lookin' pret-ty go-o-od!

Lady

 

[Christopher]

Some sunshine, in light of so many gloomy forecasts:

"In the second halves of all presidential election years over the past 110 years, the Dow has gained an average of 9.7%. In the second halves of all other years, in contrast, the Dow's second-half gain has been 2.7%, or barely more than a quarter as much. This difference turns out to be marginally significant from a statistical point of view."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/historical-precedents-rest-year/story.aspx?guid=%7BDEF80991%2DB50F%2D4787%2DA867%2DDED7AF8F88C4%7D&siteid=yhoof

 

[Bullitt]

The latest from McHugh. Omen setup still in progress.

Still, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past two signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 76.9 percent.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.html

 

[tsptalk]

The latest from McHugh. Omen setup still in progress.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.html

... the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising, which we consider met if it is higher than the level 10 weeks earlier

I wonder how he is determining the 10-week MA? Looking at a weekly chart of the NYSE, the 10-week simple MA does not appear to be higher. It is now 9384, where you can see below that is has been falling for months. That is also true when you use the exponential MA. Maybe my assumption that a 50-day MA is the same as a 10-week MA (10 x 5 days?) is wrong.

 

[Bullitt]

Tom, you may be sensing my sarcasm when it comes to Mr. McHugh. I read that thing twice and the theory is less clear to me now than before. I understand the rational behind a prelude to a drop when the market is rising and the A/D Line is declining, but that's about it.

How many crashes have we seen since the Hindenburg's inception? Maybe 2? Data mining at it's finest but you've gotta love it.

 

[Christopher]

WELLLLLLL.......so much for THAT "marginally significant" statistic! SO MANY stats have been kicked to the curb this year - Friday's anticipated (statistical) sizable 'bump' could turn out to be a sizable 'burp' instead...

There's a ton of green in the markets today, floating atop a sea of red that's swirling around us like a whirlpool. Locked gains for 2008, moved from 50/25/0/0/25 G/F/C/S/I to 100% G before noon - the sun will come out..."TOMORROW"!

Happy New Years cheers to everyone...may your 2009 be blessed with lives full of health and vigor, and relationships full of love, truth, and honor. Real prosperity doesn't exist without these...

Please consider a year-end donation to the charity of your choice...

Christopher

Some sunshine, in light of so many gloomy forecasts:

"In the second halves of all presidential election years over the past 110 years, the Dow has gained an average of 9.7%. In the second halves of all other years, in contrast, the Dow's second-half gain has been 2.7%, or barely more than a quarter as much. This difference turns out to be marginally significant from a statistical point of view."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/historical-precedents-rest-year/story.aspx?guid=%7BDEF80991%2DB50F%2D4787%2DA867%2DDED7AF8F88C4%7D&siteid=yhoof