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Doesn't the original back in June expire after 120 days?Third Hindenberg Omen.
Everybody- expect a nice big fall from here!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh062407pv.htmlSo what is a Hindenburg Omen?It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 22 years.All of them. No panic sell-off occurred over the past 22 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen. Another way of looking at it is, without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe. But we have one as of June 22nd, 2007. The way Peter Eliades put it in his Daily Update, September 21, 2005 (Peter is well worth the read, believe me), "The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both." When both new highs and new lows are large, "it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence - many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn't matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs. This is the condition that leads to important market bottoms."
...And we don't need no "Stinkin' Badges Senior".
twice in the past week Bullyboy.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.htmlStill, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past two signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 76.9 percent.
The latest from McHugh. Omen setup still in progress.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.html
I wonder how he is determining the 10-week MA? Looking at a weekly chart of the NYSE, the 10-week simple MA does not appear to be higher. It is now 9384, where you can see below that is has been falling for months. That is also true when you use the exponential MA. Maybe my assumption that a 50-day MA is the same as a 10-week MA (10 x 5 days?) is wrong.... the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising, which we consider met if it is higher than the level 10 weeks earlier
Some sunshine, in light of so many gloomy forecasts:
"In the second halves of all presidential election years over the past 110 years, the Dow has gained an average of 9.7%. In the second halves of all other years, in contrast, the Dow's second-half gain has been 2.7%, or barely more than a quarter as much. This difference turns out to be marginally significant from a statistical point of view."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/historical-precedents-rest-year/story.aspx?guid=%7BDEF80991%2DB50F%2D4787%2DA867%2DDED7AF8F88C4%7D&siteid=yhoof![]()