The Hindenburg Omen

The Hindenburg Omen is on the clock until December 17, but if bears want to strike, late September to October is a better time seasonality wise.

Timing for Chanos was wrong by more than a decade, so that doesn't mean he was right.
 
I read about this too and had a chuckle. :laugh: Not to disparage the bears, but I love how people I haven't heard from for weeks are now coming out to brag "I told you so." But it's ok...everyone deserves to have their day in the sun. :smile:

tsptalk said:
Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.
Click to expand...
 
Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.
 
tom4jean said:
Link? Thanks!

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Click to expand...

Go back to the very first post in this thread- and that explains what it is. Thanks. Good luck.

We just had a second and third. Historically, this is from back in June 2007, leading up to the crash in 2008.


“A second and a third!

Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. “

(From earlier in this thread).



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James48843 said:
Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.
Click to expand...
Link? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 
More often then not, HO warnings are false alarms, but as bullitt said, basically all crashes are preceded by one or more signals. Generally, the more signals in a short period, the more vulnerable the market becomes. Watch the new highs / new lows lists each day. High numbers of both trigger this warning.
 
Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.
 
That's it.

Third Hindenberg Omen and I'm out. See you in a couple of months- I'm expecting a good retrenchment within 30 days.
 
Agree, there have been so many false alarms with this thing over the years. It's seems to be complicated indicator, but most importantly it follows the new highs and lows coupled with McClellan Oscillator.

Today the lows on the NYSE ended at 154, the highest since March 30 when it was 180. McClellan is also in negative territory currently.
 
Recent Hindenburg Omen signals have produced little downside. But if they start to get ignored, that's when they'll likely be effective again.
 
Oh great. A Hindenburg Omen- Just when I had dived in.

Well, thank you Bullitt for posting that. Definitely has me on my toes. Here is the NASDAQ chart which also is scary to me today:

Image1614862677.804219.jpg


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Looking for confirmation from the NYSE.

Using Refinitiv data, a more stringent construction of the indicator shows a signal popped up Tuesday on the Nasdaq. The last signal developed 12 trading days ahead of the Nasdaq's Feb. 19, 2020 top and what would then prove to be a 33% swoon in the tech-laden index into its March trough. No signal occurred on the NYSE on Tuesday. Its last occurrence was the Feb. 3, 2020 date.
Click to expand...

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/live-markets-hindenburg-omen-buzzing-the-tower-xcdw6ay835bkseu.html
 
No Hindenburg warnings out there right now. Just a lot of pre-election uncertainty going on the past two weeks.
 
Again, from my 2-25-20 posting-


https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...denburg-omens-betrays-bullish-case-for-stocks


A New Cluster Of Hindenburg Omens Betrays The Bullish Case For Stocks
Feb. 13, 2020 7:16

Summary

While an individual signal has very little value in forecasting a stock market crash, a cluster of signals can be valuable in that it signals a pattern of dispersion that is not compatible with a healthy uptrend.

In the past, these clusters have marked important intermediate and long-term reversals.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen another cluster of 8 individual signals between the NYSE and Nasdaq.

(Link above for complete article)


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