Steadygain's Account Talk

[budnipper1]

I noticed that oil is at $34.86 down 2.34 while the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 4.96% which is the lowest ever and we now have a record housing affordability. We are setting up real nice here for a multi-year recovery and market rebound. Test the Nov. 20th lows and move forward.
Our mutual friend Frozen simply needs to thaw out a little and stretch out that sphincter - he's wound a little tight if you ask me.

:laugh: Loving your "diplomacy".
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[Mista_Magee]

Thanks Steady,

I took my name from that Prince song and also thanks for the words to the song. I appreciate the encouragement for a plus 10% for the year, so far I'm 6.79% in the red. Last year, down 40%. So, I'm hopeful. Good luck to you.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Steady,

I took my name from that Prince song and also thanks for the words to the song. I appreciate the encouragement for a plus 10% for the year, so far I'm 6.79% in the red. Last year, down 40%. So, I'm hopeful. Good luck to you.

Wow that's pretty cool

I thought of the cartoon character when I saw your name - but the song is a thousands times cooler...

oh yeal...so you would have seen her walk in through the out door.. on a very warm day :nuts:

The BIGGEST MISTAKE you could make is jumping in and out too fast and letting your emotions take control.

Have an over all game plan - know where the Markets are heading and what to expect: In my game plan they are heading way down

If that's how you see it then focus on Staying in G Fund - wait it out patiently and maybe once a month a BIG OPPORTUNITY will appear then plan to go in maybe 2 or 3 days Max.

If you see the Markets leveling off soon and are confident they are soon to spring up...then stay in High Risk and wait it out.

The most important thing is getting a feel for The Markets and the Overall Economy.

GL to you too my friend and thanks for stopping by.

 

[Steadygain]

158 (my current position on the Auto Tracker)

48 today at 0.09%


Well it turned out to be an EXCELLENT DAY

S FUND gets the prise - whoever went 100% - excellent job


HAVE A GREAT NIGHT EVERYONE...SEE YA TOMORROW

 

[Steadygain]

I'm a bad boy for breaking her heart

Now I'm FREEEEEEEEEEEE

FREEEE FALLENNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

YEAL I'm FREEEEEEEEEEE

FREEEEEE FALLENNNNNNNNNNNNN

We interupt this program for an emergency update:

Once set into motion you can not change the outcome. I hit the cue ball towards the bottom with the force of 2 atomic bombs using a spring stroke. The force pushed the ball fully into the Markets but after impact the 'BACKSPIN' brought the cue ball back out.

That means I'm going back into G Fund today. That was my original plan and based on solid circumstances and not emotions. I don't want greed to push me - I'd rather play it safe and solid.

If the Markets turn out bad today - however - I may leave things alone and get out next week.

 

[Steadygain]

IFT to G FUND

REALITY: The bounce yesterday and today were fully expected. I stayed in G Fund the whole year waiting patiently for this event.

I did well - and will lock in the gains.

Obama Week and Recession

It is possible the Markets will rally next week in celebration of Obama becoming President. In my view that is wholly emotional and completely against the STRONG DATA supporting huge persisting weakness and a very high probability that the Markets will continue the FALL.

I believe next week will at the very best hold to whatever we have today - linger in that range and then fall further.

GL to all

 

[Gumby]

Obama Week and Recession

It is possible the Markets will rally next week in celebration of Obama becoming President. In my view that is wholly emotional and completely against the STRONG DATA supporting huge persisting weakness and a very high probability that the Markets will continue the FALL.

Steady,

I believe you are 100% correct. The only reason I am in the market right now is because I thought the market would bounce due to the Obama effect. I made a chunk of change by buying into SDS on election day when the S&P500 spiked over 1000 and then selling one week later.

With the government still propping up the financials, the market may run higher...but I believe the market will eventually come down to earth when reality sets in that the government does not have enough cheese to bail every company out. S&P 500 below 700 this year....count on it.

 

[Frixxxx]

It is possible the Markets will rally next week in celebration of Obama becoming President. In my view that is wholly emotional and completely against the STRONG DATA supporting huge persisting weakness and a very high probability that the Markets will continue the FALL.

I believe next week will at the very best hold to whatever we have today - linger in that range and then fall further.

GL to all

I think you are on the right track as Gumby stated. Patience is a virtue!!!

Steady,

I believe you are 100% correct. The only reason I am in the market right now is because I thought the market would bounce due to the Obama effect. I made a chunk of change by buying into SDS on election day when the S&P500 spiked over 1000 and then selling one week later.

With the government still propping up the financials, the market may run higher...but I believe the market will eventually come down to earth when reality sets in that the government does not have enough cheese to bail every company out. S&P 500 below 700 this year....count on it.

Ride those waves when you can catch them, but be careful of the reef sharks nibbling at your toes....

I agree on your S&P number being low, but my expectation is 650.:nuts:

 

[Silverbird]

Nothing happens automatically, the first half of 2009 is, according to every economist I've seen info from, toasted already. There may or may not be a little jump in stocks, emotional buying may NOT occur because most of the enthusiastic impulsive buyers already got burned and may not think the Market is the place to display their exuberence.

 

[Birchtree]

At the depths of a recession earnings will look awful when compared with earnings of a year earlier. But because the stock market looks forward rather than backwards, it more often than not will rise in anticipation of the economic recovery that is just around the corner. The economy is poised to begin a recovery in the second half of 2009 starting in June. I realize that is a minority position but that's how it works.

 

[sugarandspice]

At the depths of a recession earnings will look awful when compared with earnings of a year earlier. But because the stock market looks forward rather than backwards, it more often than not will rise in anticipation of the economic recovery that is just around the corner. The economy is poised to begin a recovery in the second half of 2009 starting in June. I realize that is a minority position but that's how it works.

Since you were crying for the attention I thought I would oblige you this last time. I know no one really cares that you do this.

The more things change, the more the sham continues.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...=&time=&symb=SPX&sid=3377&source=htx\http2_mw

 

[Steadygain]

Nothing happens automatically.

It 'feels' like it does - but I think you're right. I guess I deliberately strive to be as open and accepting as possible; to foster an atmosphere that allows my patients to be comfortable and know they are safe in sharing their difficulties or whatever circumstances they may be dealing with. Somehow I believe they 'feel' this and I all the more believe they acknowledge it in the manner I look at them 'and connect' with them as they're communicating.

So to a huge degree it all seems automatic to me.

I also 'feel' the more open and transparent we are - the more we live life naturally and fully - the more we have a completeness and a genuine peace that seems 'automatic'

At the depths of a recession earnings will look awful when compared with earnings of a year earlier. But because the stock market looks forward rather than backwards, it more often than not will rise in anticipation of the economic recovery that is just around the corner. The economy is poised to begin a recovery in the second half of 2009 starting in June. I realize that is a minority position but that's how it works.

That is not 'a minority position' at all. This expresses the most fundamental truth of Markets in general and especially 'the recovery' of a recession. MARKETS ALWAYS RECOVER STRENGTH and have significant GROWTH - prior to ECONOMIC STRENGTH.

Nothing describes my long range 09 plans better than this Birch. I am more than ready to invest LONG TERM during (or just prior to) the second half of 09.

 

[Steadygain]

Since you were crying for the attention I thought I would oblige you and let you know I'm still around

Above quote may have been slightly modified during transition


Wow!!! SugarandSpice,
I smelled the purfume just as I was finishing my last note. Banged my knees on the desk as I jumped in celebration cause I know only one lady has that aroma.

WELCOME BACK!! and please don't be a stranger.

12% and others have already said, "FTS, if S&S has left there's nothing worth staying for got mad and left.

Anyway, I'm thrilled to see you're still around. When the weather warms up I'll bring a few bags of marshmellows over and we can chuck them in the open windows of cars passing by

 

[Birchtree]

Ah, the days of wine and roses - it's good to know she is fine. Now we know it's not agoraphobia because she did step out and take me to task once again - I deserve a little credit for offering the temptation. We do need a little spice around here now that Buster is quiet. So Sugar don't be a stranger.

 

[Steadygain]

I have a DREAM...

I know he may have made some mistakes and things that were hidden came to light...


But this Speech and the REAL VALUE of all it represents will stand the time forever and ever.


Have a GREAT WEEKEND everyone!!

 

[Steadygain]

We're gonna walk down to ELECTRIC AVENUE

...................and then we'll take you HIGHER

...................HIGHER..................HIGHER

..............We're gonna walk down to ELECTRIC AVENUE

and then we'll take you HIGHER

.....................HIGHER...........HIGHER

This is how I see the Markets playing out this week and this song will likely reflect the change on Penn. Ave. FOR THOSE WHO remainded in HIGH RISK there is a good chance you returns will grow as much as 5 to 10% by the end of the week. I know that sounds incredible but Consumer Confidence will likely explode and with it the Markets will RALLY HARD. For 99% of the MB - I would strongly encourage you to grab those gains and lock in to G Fund - as it will not last. I have already gone to G Fund and will have to stay there the rest of the month. Currently I'm 1.77% for the year and I'm happy with that. Am #9 on the Auto Tracker but will probably be #50 - 70 by the end of the week.

I do expect this to be one of the best weeks ever for the Markets; but my game plan is based on a Recession with declining Markets and therefore I've decided to ignore emotion and stick with my original plan. So far I can not complain - but I will honestly be trilled for all in High Risk - if this week turns out as I've noted.

Wishing the BEST for ALL,

Steady

 

[justbizness45]

Thanks Steady, HowTheMarketWorks.com has a poll going for what the market will do in 2009:

Go up 20%+ - 23.1%
Go up 10%+ - 30.3%
Go down 10%+ - 25.9
Stay flat - 14.1%
Not sure - 6.7%

This is a learn the stock market site. I think this gives a good insight to the bullishness of the dumb money right now. You might be dead on for next week until the dumb money gets completely invested. Then the big boys will take their shirts. I am still in stocks but plan to be out COB Wednesday at the latest. Wish me luck!!

 

[Boghie]

The Obama High!!!

SteadyGain,

I really don't think there will be much of a bump. We have heard enough rhetoric over the last 26 months. The inaguration speech really won't give him an opportunity to get specifics out. That is what the money wants to hear. The small folk have been blown out already.

Regardless, like SteadyGain stated:
Watch out for the post rush dumps... It will occur much faster than you can trade within the stupid IFT system. Don't try to market time to the day. Instead, expect a range (say $9.70 -> $10.50 in the 'C Fund') and sell at the top and buy at the bottom. The 'C Fund' is at $9.83 - which leaves you with a 6.8% profit if you bail out at $10.50.

I missed the $10.50 target by two days (one by not watching, the second via the slow trades behind the IFT). Sold instead at $10.08. Thus, I gained a bit, but by delaying two days I lost half the gain. I still have 32% in C/S/I so I can still make some money on a bump to $10.50.

The biggest concern is that the upside doesn't look big - but the downside could be 20%+ decline. So, me think I will NOT play big in C/S/I

 

[Steadygain]

I am still in stocks but plan to be out COB Wednesday at the latest. Wish me luck!!

I wish you the VERY BEST OF LUCK !!

SteadyGain,

I really don't think there will be much of a bump. We have heard enough rhetoric over the last 26 months.

If there is a BUMP - it will be complete garbage. Europe just announced 2.5M jobs to be cut and are striving to put another huge sum in the economy to get it going.

Regardless, like SteadyGain stated:
Watch out for the post rush dumps... It will occur much faster than you can trade within the stupid IFT system.

The underlying data has been largely ignored by the excitement.

The most major aspects by which the Economy runs in a healthy manner are being turned upside down - things are getting worse (not better). There is no way possible a Rally can be sustained.

Don't try to market time to the day.
Excellent advice - thanks for posting it here.

I still have 32% in C/S/I so I can still make some money on a bump to $10.50.
I hope you do very well - this is a rare day - and if any day could emotionally SPUR a rally TODAY IS THE DAY.

The biggest concern is that the upside doesn't look big - but the downside could be 20%+ decline. So, me think I will NOT play big in C/S/I

I'm counting on at least a 20% Loss for 09.

GL - you can play is BIG when the Markets TANK 500 - 700 points (one or two days) then get out.

 

[Steadygain]

WOW!!

Makes me think of Custer's Last Stand...:worried:


Birch, and others have mentioned Historic Panic Sell offs. I believe 2009 will be most know for that event. We got a taste of that in 9/08 but it passed too quickly and beginning in 10/08 the FED and Treasury made major shifts to pour money into the Global Economy.


NOW - we've got 1/4 of 1% left. Europe is falling fast and it is very closely linked with us.

If it keeps falling - it will be the best event in the LONG RUN - will be like the roller coster going down the steepest drop which will form the V Formation. A BOTTOM will undoubted be hit and money will start pouring in.