Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Obama is speaking right now, only to announce his appointment of a Performance Officer for the White House. I don't see this as a Market Mover. So the question still remains; " Is this the beginning of a big drop, or, is this a one day drop and the Market continues the recent rally tomorrow".

Obama will do wonders for the USA - mainly because he will not allow himself, Ben and the others to parade out to the American public with wonderful smiles 'telling the Nation everything is fine and patting themselves on the back'. Goverment will be way more TRANSPARENT and the ship will not only be hugely cleaned up but it will run tight and all will see 'the smoke and screens tactics' ARE FINALLY DISAPPEARING AND WE ARE DOING THINGS RIGHT.

There is no MARKET MOVER little brother. The question is not is this the beginning of a big drop... THE QUESTIONS ARE:
1. Did the Recession begin in the last quarter of 2008?
YES
2. Has the overwhelming bulk of Economic Turmoil been ongoing since about 9/08 and continuing to get worse?
YES

So the MAIN QUESTION needs to be does 2009 make any difference other than a fantasy emotional wish of something better?
NO - we are in a Recession and things will continue to get worse. This is where I will undoubtedly be able to prove the Economy has everything to do with the Markets. Whatever gains the small volume brings will be smashed down we can expect a HUGE DROP to occur even if it takes another week or two (or another month).

So the MAIN QUESTION should be are you in position for Markets to TANK - here it is best to sit back and be patient.

If the markets follow the trend and bounce down off the upper Bollinger band and then up at the 20 DMA like it is suppose to do it would be nice, BUT:

I was thinking about jumping in the Market thursday,
We know a BIG DROP is unavoidable - there is simply no way possible to prevent it. Jumping in the Market now (or in the near future) would be a very dangerous move.

but looking at the prospect of bad numbers from the employment report I've changed my mind. NonFarm Payrolls and Unemployment numbers might get a bost from Christmas, but not as much as it has in the past.

I'd say our best bet is to stay in safety and enjoy the ride. Those in High Risk will probably lose another 20% before it's all over - while we build capital and go in at the BOTTOM.

That's my game plan and I'm thrilled with the prospects.

 

[Guest2]

Strong points my good friend, I think patience will reep rewards. I'm not
as likely to jump as a result. Tomorrow will be interesting to watch it unfold.
I don't expect a rebound will occur, but I'll be watching that (F) Fund
very closely too.

 

[Corepuncher]

NO surprise here that I agree with you totally. I'm looking at some possible support near 850. Could get a bounce off that level. Then a retest later on this year...who knows when.

One thing that really scares me if the prospect of interest rates going higher (treasuries selling off). If that occurs...it will negate any buying of MBS the Fed is doing and everyone will be very, very disappointed when mortgage rates don't fall further...and instead rise! OUCH!

If you are planning on refinancing, wait for a good market down leg...and a subsequent rise in the bonds...I'm thinking you should be able to get 4.75% fixed 30 yr soon, no pts.

 

[Steadygain]

NO surprise here that I agree with you totally. I'm looking at some possible support near 850. Could get a bounce off that level. Then a retest later on this year...who knows when.

I didn't have 'a number' but had a similar thought. Figured I'd wait for some real significant drops back to back - especially if it starts mid week and then have a HUGE DROP the start of the next week.

So if things continue going down 'nicely' this week and Monday the Markets are say -300 starting off the day - THEN I'LL GO IN.

One thing that really scares me if the prospect of interest rates going higher (treasuries selling off).
Treasuries are stable - once the Markets honestly start TANKING that's where a lot of money will go. The focus has already shifted largely to capital preservation among the masses.

Our TSP crowd is a seperate population altogether.

If that occurs...it will negate any buying of MBS the Fed is doing and everyone will be very, very disappointed when mortgage rates don't fall further...and instead rise! OUCH!
No idea what buying MBS means

Mortgage rates should have dropped to 3% (or 4% minimum) awhile back. Banks have been getting money for FREE for at least the past 6 months. They are idiots for not making Mortgage Rates way more inticing. They won't go up for awhile (especially to any significant degree).

If you are planning on refinancing, wait for a good market down leg...and a subsequent rise in the bonds...I'm thinking you should be able to get 4.75% fixed 30 yr soon, no pts.

THANK YOU my friend - honesetly - I really appreciate that. I got 5% for 15 yrs at least 8 or 9 years prior. My wife does all the financial stuff (by her choosing) - I just make the money (which is fine with me). She pays extra with each payment but I only look at the interest payment with my income tax returns.

PEACE - LOVE - ROCK N ROLL

 

[Steadygain]

Hey ya'll,
Wanted to let everyone know Carrie has been enjoying her TSP Story thoroughly. She still has not finished it and explained last night that she reads the pages slowly to make sure she's found all the hidden treasures - then reads them over another 2 times.

She recently parted from her Identical Twin - the glistening white pearl - and now is with WV-girl.

Anyway thank you all for giving me the inspiration to write the story and please know she had expressed tremendous approval.

Steady

 

[Birchtree]

I didn't even realize that our rabblerouser was missing - thanks for the honorable mention. I do believe his one celled cousin is filling the gap.

 

[Steadygain]

MARKET GAMEPLAN - Patience is the most fundamental rule when dealing with the Markets. Watching the charts too closely and going from day to day - typically makes patience more difficult.

Exceptions to this rule are choosing Safety (me in G Fund) or High Risk (Birch) and staying there without the thought of jumping back and forth. By maintaining your position you avoid the stomach churning emotions and expectations and fears that frequently go with investing.

I anticipate the months ahead to be very BORING - with volitility throughout the first half leading to a gradual FALL. There will likely be occasional weeks with 400 to 500 point ONE DAY DROPS blended with other less substantial drops. Those are the moments I will wait for and I'm in no hurry for them to occur. Patience is everything and being able to ignore the small stuff becomes easier and easier the longer you maintain your position.

So it's not that I would encourage anyone to Buy and Hod; rather in this setting I would encourage you to either stay in safety and learn to wait patiently for the LARGE DROPS - or stay in HIGH RISK and DCA until the TRUE BULL TAKES OVER. At this point you can expect the Markets to gain slowly and Drop fast.

 

[Steadygain]

RANDOM THOUGHTS..............Taking a little break

In my later teens my hair was long and during the summer I stayed at the Farm and let my cousins "Tease my hair" (2 younger girls loved to tease my hair - make it stand up straight)

Now I've got a large bald spot in the back. Am thinking about sueing my cousins for "teasing my hair" - because unknown to me at the time it hurt their feelings so bad they ran off and died.


I'm 6'5" and a fairly large guy - with more a clean cut professional look. When I shop (rare) - say go to Walmart for dog food and pass younger kids in the ailes I'll make really psychotic sounds (very strange noises) when I'm walking pass the younger crowd. Picture a cartoon bird who's been grabbed by the throat - or something like that - a squirel laughing....

Well anyway - I do that stuff to entertain myself because I'm a giant man to them and I chuckel at the thought of them telling others about the strange sounds I make WHEN I KNOW FOR SURE MOST ADULTS WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THAT.


I like to sing what I call "OPERA" when I'm out alone - say mowing the lawn or I when I get out of my car/or get back to it - in what appears to be an empty parking lot. Mowing the border around our 8 acres I'm singing - "MAMA JUST KILLED A MAN..." the song by Queen and belting it out OPERA style so loud - that my wife/kids could hear me inside the house. They couldn't hear what I was singing - but said it sounded like I'm shouting out a bunch of Japanese words.

Well, recently as I was approaching my car (after Walmart) the lot looked empty so I sing a phase or 2 super loud - off the top of my head. It's nighttime.

Well one lady way down to my left turns around and shouts something like "I know you ain't singing to me"... WHATEVER...but she rambled on for a few moments looking in my direction. BUT right after I sang my line - which is always super random - a lady walked by a nearby van (which made her invisible) - looks at me with a big smile and walks past.


OK - I'm cool now. Time to type up a letter and get it mailed out.

The story you're about to see is true...the names were changed to protect the innocent...my name is Friday...Joe Friday

 

[Steadygain]

Man I have been swamped today!!:blink:

My last post was immediately after drinking my very FIRST LARGE CUP OF ORGANIC COFFEE FROM ETHOPIA :nuts:

I'd say it's very obvious I was flying high on caffeine


Well I've noticed the overall MB is quite Bullish - many went High Risk



It would seem that Obama would create high upbeat momentum and honestly I hope ya'll come out doing well. From my perspective he is going in at the worst possible time - so I'll wait it out awhile.

Well I've got to head to the hospital...

Squalebear, I didn't mean to make it sound like you were struggling or anything like that. I just realized more and more that something as big as refinancing your home - is beyond my honest assessment and didn't want any mistakes through my input. My message was solely an out - for me - anyway take care and I hope you're feeling better.

Mamikin, I'll send a PM before I go home - sorry but a lot on my plate right now...so I have to put all my thoughts out to the world.

Have a good weekend everyone - be safe and know I love you

 

[Corepuncher]

If there is one thing I've learned over the past year...it's to have patience. One guy in my office has been out of the market since summer 2006. After accumulating in G for over 2 years...he bought in in the 800s...while his effective sell was around 1400. Good job.

I instead took a few gambles, going in and out. My 10/1/08 move was the most ill timed move...but oh well, you can't win them all. I was up 10% that day, then lost it all. Hey...but since that time, I've moved in and out, gaining 7%...so I made some up.

The old me would have bought COB today...but I decided to wait and be patient. Earnings over the next 2 weeks will not inspire bullishness. I forsee a gradual sifting down towards 850...then 1 or 2 day rally fairly strong back to test 900. That is when I'll sell.

The tricky thing for me...I can only buy 1 time...so what percentage do I go? Surely not 100%. I might get aggressive and go 75%...but 50% might be a better gamble in this type of market environment.

 

[Steadygain]

I forsee a gradual sifting down towards 850...then 1 or 2 day rally fairly strong back to test 900. That is when I'll sell.

I'd say we're thinking the same thing - I just didn't have a number in mind

The tricky thing for me...I can only buy 1 time...so what percentage do I go? Surely not 100%. I might get aggressive and go 75%...but 50% might be a better gamble in this type of market environment.

This is where I guess I stand out a lot differently. When I go- I go the way - either C/S/I or G (and rarely F).

If you're thinking a fast move anyway - leaving anything in G (F) displays the sissy side - the pansy crap stuff I'm liable to make fun of. So don't be surprised if I say something like "Hey wimp man I see you still have one foot on the ground"

Now I can more see the ones in G (F) making gradual increasing moves to C/S/I

Join me CP - and let's show these pansy asses that a man who waits patiently has no problems diving in the water and going fully in.

 

[alevin]

Waaaay too much caffeine, Steady!:laugh:

 

[Steadygain]

Waaaay too much caffeine, Steady!:laugh:

Sufffferringg Suckkatasshhh

I'm sure you're RIGHT!!!

Plus the busier I am - the more revved up I get - it's the only way I maintain the energy to get it all done.

In this world it's great to let my hair down and go wild - to help balance out everything else.

Well after today I should finally take a fairly good jump from 158 (my current position on the Auto Tracker) up towards the middle.


Later everyone - and thanks for putting up with me

 

[Guest2]

Hey, can someone get me a Double Latte ! I could use alittle !
Its refreshing to see true feelings be published without the fear
of being too Politically Correct. I get enough of that at work. My
chuckles turned into Belly Laugh's and we all could use alittle more
laughter and humor. Thanks for that ! You guys/gals are the greatest!

 

[TSPinWV]

Steady,
I picked up on your comments (below) in Squalebear's thread. We live very similar lives. Everything you listed could describe us to a "T". :nuts: I applaud your choices. I'm sure you find it very "freeing" - I know we do.

"I am geared towards doing 99.9% of repairs and maintainence myself; buying cars/vans and everything else with cash. Always pay the credit card bill immediately. Always give the first 10% to church. Our ultimate goal is to give the Lending Instituations the smallest amount of interest possible - to avoid non essential expenses (so we do not have hi-speed internet; cable; VIP Credit Cards (which they are always trying to give), memberships to any organizations, or subscriptions to anything other than charities we donate to (or gifts we've received). No alcohol or tobacco and rarely go out to eat."

 

[Corepuncher]

Well after today I should finally take a fairly good jump from 158 (my current position on the Auto Tracker) up towards the middle.


Later everyone - and thanks for putting up with me

Looks like you are tied for 21st...as well as 69th! I rocketed up 30 spots today...woohooo! I'm mad at myself for my October move last year so I'm going to make up for it.

 

[Steadygain]

Hey, can someone get me a Double Latte ! I could use alittle !
Its refreshing to see true feelings be published without the fear
of being too Politically Correct. I get enough of that at work. My
chuckles turned into Belly Laugh's and we all could use alittle more
laughter and humor. Thanks for that ! You guys/gals are the greatest!

My dear little brother,
Here I was feeling a little bad this morning - fearing I may have hurt your feelings by loving you too much and trying to hard to make sure everything was okay. I know you're a grown man with a wife and family and can take care of yourself. But in this world when you have a lot of uncertainties with very serious issues pertaining to discs/vertabraes - PAIN - and having to work despite the need for rest and all the more when you'r talking about the most major source of DEBT you're facing I can come on too strong and over step my boundries and in the end realize I've got no place to tell you anything. But I love you a lot and want your best - ALWAYS.

I agree - the guys/gals here are the VERY BEST.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,
I picked up on your comments (below) in Squalebear's thread. We live very similar lives. Everything you listed could describe us to a "T". :nuts: I applaud your choices. I'm sure you find it very "freeing" - I know we do.

Thank you !! so much.

What a true honor it is finding another BROTHER.

I would say for sure WV has a lot to do with it - that having that in our roots helps us to all the more build a good character. I've also noted everyone out here in IL (wide open huge fields) wth a smaller town community makes a big difference. Having parents demonstrate a thrify lifestyle - living simply and having a huge independence HAS VERY MUCH SHAPED MY LIFE.

Thanks for stopping by

 

[Steadygain]

Looks like you are tied for 21st...as well as 69th! I rocketed up 30 spots today...woohooo! I'm mad at myself for my October move last year so I'm going to make up for it.

CP - I need to run. DON'T BE MAD. Both of us need to learn from it and you are truly a master when it comes to investing.

I've got 2 ITFs this month so I can jump in (AND OUT)

Well take care my friend - and everyone else as well

LOVE - PEACE - ROCK N ROLL

 

[Steadygain]

Ladies and Gentlemen - WE ARE AT WAR

The WAR mainly kicked in in 10/08 - when the Central Banks lifted caps on spending - giving unlimited dollars to foreign banks and making numerous other expenitures THE MEDIA has largely ignored or refused to make known.

I call 2008 - the Political Play: Part I
This is when the Housing Sector Crisis and the Financial Sector Crisis were transformed into a Political Arena. In this Play huge Bail Outs and Rate Cuts dominate the scene along with the continual Media Projections that "the WORST CAN BE AVERTED". Throughout the first half a RECESSION was avoided - increasing the general view that things may get better.

In 9/08 the veils began to fall and the TRUTH could no longer be hidden. 10/08 began the strongest endeavors by the Cental Banks for damage control - BUT THEY COULD NO LONGER HOLD BACK THE RECESSION AND IT BEGAN TO SPILL OVER.

Look at the facts - the RECESSION did not begin until the end of 08.

2009 - The Political Play: Part II
This has an errie similarity to Part I. In part II we begin with the Media stating 'The Recession has been ongoing for over 1 year' when in fact The Recession has barely started.

Part II - also largely begins like Part I - with the Markets demonstrating amazing Stability despite (or in the face) of increasingly 'BAD NEWS' and 'Cold hard FACTS'.
We know there is no way possible this stability can remain sustained and it is only a matter of time before the Markets crash through.

I would strongly recommend making an endeavor of keeping up with the facts: The Unemployment Numbers; The Corporations and Companies reflecting WEAK SALES; Downsizing; Closings; Comsumer Confidence; GDP numbers; Global Market Assessments.

Review over Robo's Posts - especially over the past few weeks.

So how do we have a winning game plan?
1. Capital Preservation - stay in G Fund
2. Wait PATIENTLY for the hard facts to catch up with reality - THEY WILL AND THE MARKTS WILL TUMBLE
3. Wait for huge drops - 2 or 3 days of small drops (100 to 200 points) followed by 400 to 500 point drops then go in FULLY 1 or 2 days
4. Repeat 1 - 3 until we hit a REAL BOTTOM