Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Wow, You listened and God sent you where you were needed!

To HIM be all praise and glory - the entire trip was arranged for Betty - and we didn't know until it happened.

***********************************************************

MARKET UPDATES​

Mortgage applications soar 48% - rates fall

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/24/news/economy/mortgage_applications/index.htm

THIS is somewhat deceiving as it represents only 1 week in 12/08. Last night I spent an hour focusing on just the Housing Sector and the news is terrible and expected to get worse in the months ahead.

BUT THIS IS A GOOD SIGN - and in a few months I will focus on stocks pertaining to the building sector. I haven't discussed stocks before and don't want to start now - but as a long reaching goal have decided to invest (in a few months) with a particular focus on this sector.

2008 was by far the worst Financial Year of our entire life (and that would include everyone on the MB). This is a result of 2 decades of terrible financial practices and we lived through it. Most of the past year was focused on BAIL OUTS (to the very companies/industries which caused the problem) and HISTORY LOW RATE CUTS.

ALL THIS TO KEEP THE ECONOMY GOING - HOWEVER MANY CHANGES NEED TO BE ENACTED TO KEEP IT FROM RECURRING - THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN TO KEEP EVERYTHING GOING.

Towards the end of 2008 an official Recession emerged with record breaking job losses, increasing unemployment, and many failures along with forced extended vacations and shrinking benefits. Incomes went to record lows.

EXPECT A BETTER OUTCOME IN 2009​

Stocks (IMO) have not reached their lows to date - and should achieve the REAL BOTTOM in the first half of 2009. Housing will be the first thing to stablize and this will spur strength and growth among the other sectors. Obama has no other choice but to make huge shifts in the underlying fundamentals. Most of the money so far has only been given to THOSE MOST responsible for causing the huge losses and the execs at the top got millions and millions. So Obama will have no other choice but to come up with lots of money to actually turn things around. DON'T BLAME HIM WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ​

Most have rightfully seen many good buying opportunities here and there.
The Financial Analysists I rely on (and my independant research) has convinced me to stay in CASH for the lowest LOWS in the months ahead. So as with the TSP - everything will stay in G Fund and I'll sit back and pass the time. Things have been going well so I'll try to limit the time I spend interacting. ​

Will plan to return in March - when I make my shift to High Risk. ​

Take care everyone - and God bless. ​

 

[Boghie]

Steadygain,

It has been a rather lousy year, eh. Even the first half was lousy. The second half more so. Much more so. Very much more so...

The FED and the Treasury helicoptered money into the system in the only ways available that were reasonably timely. Other methods would not come into effect in a timely manner. Nobody wanted to sit the thing out.

My guess is that the FED felt they know how to fight inflation (our next big challenge) while there is no known solution to spiraling deflation (where we probably were heading). Thus, they are actually attempting to initiate inflation. Oh, the joy!

The mid-term financial future is going to be a tough path. I also don’t think housing will lead us out. It can’t. Its too slow. Also, many Boomers will be forced to sell their MacMansions into this market – and those edifices of exuberance were to be their retirements. Lots of housing on the market, tight credit, and customers who got kicked in the head with their debt levels. More joy!

Oh my.

Deflation followed by Inflation.

The Joy of the Season.

 

[Steadygain]

Steadygain,

My guess is that the FED felt they know how to fight inflation (our next big challenge) while there is no known solution to spiraling deflation (where we probably were heading). Thus, they are actually attempting to initiate inflation.

Thanks for your comments. Several interviews with 2008 Nobel Prize Economic winners over the weekend brought a clearer picture into what has happened. It's an amazing piece of history we are going through with totally unregulated policies that allowed huge name corporations and institutions to rip off the American population.

I'm all the more amazed how management was able to escape the consequences of their actions; but not only that - they actually walk away with money to spare.

In my lifetime - China has often been viewed as 'The BAD GUY'. It's strange because I've been conditioned to expect this kind of story to happen over there. BUT HERE IT'S LIKE A TWISTED - WEIRD DREAM and it's like "Wow, what does the rest of the world think of us"? What kind of country (government) would allow the SEC to pull off one of the biggest scams to date? S&P (and other big names) to make fictious 'ratings'; AIG, Fannie Mae and all the Major Banks interconnecting in a scandal that made executives excessively rich while bringing about global financial destruction.

The mid-term financial future is going to be a tough path.
Recovery in the Markets usually occur 2 to 4 months ahead of what is felt (or experienced by the general economy).

I also don’t think housing will lead us out. It can’t. Its too slow.
It's not that I believe 'housing' will lead us out. I believe we as a Nation will need to go through a long painful process - and only after many lives and companies are shaken down and in essense things have crumbled and the dust has settled - can we go forward.

So what I see as the first major signs of recovery - is the repairing of existing houses, the building of new ones, and infrastructure repair. That's why the Building Sector will be my first focus.

Also, many Boomers will be forced to sell their MacMansions into this market – and those edifices of exuberance were to be their retirements.
Some got 'suckered' into their situations - and some were driven by greed and wanting way beyond what they could afford.


Lots of housing on the market,
Housing has been founded on 'Cheap Oil' - when OIL becomes expensive many Mansions will be abandoned.

tight credit,
I see 'tight credit' as a good thing.

and customers who got kicked in the head with their debt levels.
It's possible that this is the 'bright side' - that spending with shift away from careless debt towards more responsibility. My gut feels the bulk will expect 'Bail outs' in various forms of government hand outs.

BUT - The recent quarters have proven that 'SPENDING' has significantly reversed from uncontrolled blind debt to 'savings'.

Deflation followed by Inflation.

The Joy of the Season.

My TSP took a significant dive in 2008 because I was more under the mindset that we were undergoing a 'brief correction' AS OPPOSED to full blown Recession. Most of what I learned about our economy has transpired over the past few months and I've been way more intrigued THAN bothered or upset. The 'Joy of the Season' has never been 'money' because the lack causes hardships and those who have it 'never have enough'. I would say the joy of being a Federal Employee has been all the more an unexpected 'BLESSING'.

For now (and over the next few months) - I will absorb the books written by Economic Nobel Prize winners; as this has honestly been a fancinating part of history AND I STILL HAVE A LOT TO LEARN. I'm anxious to know as many details as possible. In all sincerity I'm only now beginning to fully understand what has transpired and I'm thoroughly fascinated by the level of greed and corruption on so many levels; especially by the industries in place 'for our protection'.

I (and my family) have been spared from any painful events. This Christmas my daughters in college and high school made donations to 'The Untouchables' giving them chickens and blankets in my honor. They are called 'Untouchables' because they live in a society that regards them as too dirty, unworthy, insignificant, invaluable to mingle with and NOT TO BE TOUCHED. I had a well for fresh water built in their honor in a village in Africa. My oldest daughter strives to build unity and harmony in South Korea and plans on extending her service there by at least another year.

Living a simple life and staying out of debt has helped us to focus on the aspects of life that are priceless and hold the highest values. We recognize how wonderful our universe is - how beautiful our planet was made - and how incredible our God is to bestow the abundance of life we live and know and share. The Season is full of Joy when we recognize our rightful place and all the more when we realize that He is everything.

I hope everyone had a good Christmas and the New Year brings a steady supply of deep happiness and good health. For now I'll order some books and take a little break.

 

[ezmoney]

A master piece steady, I enjoyed the read.

 

[Boghie]

A good and prosperous Christmas is always a steady gain in my family...

I was lucky enough to get hit financially, but not destroyed. So now I learn. I enjoy the experience of learning and improving. That is part of living the life we are given, eh…


While not an economist, and expert, or even a novice in the field of finance I would recommend:

Naill Ferguson’s books (just got ‘The Assent of Money’, read ‘Colossus’ and ‘The Cash Nexus’. All very good).

Ric Edelman – ‘The Lies About Money’ and ‘The Truth About Money’. He has other books I will soon read as well. He has a syndicated Saturday radio show.

Ray Lucia – ‘Buckets of Money’ and others. He has a syndicated daily radio show.

Lucia and Edelman respect each other enough to have mentioned the other in their shows in a very positive light – even though both punk the slugs fairly frequently.


I would recommend an ‘Occam’s Razor’ approach government oversight. Cox is actually rather qualified for the position he holds, as is Bernanke, as is Paulson, as was Greenspan. The current office holders have held their positions for less than three years. I think the fault lies with Congressional oversight – they have NO experience in finance and have put expediency over experience. But, what else are they to do. They hear one expert stating this and another stating that and the thing seems to be perking along just fine. Why not play a little in the market structure and provide for the poor and some backers? Congress Critters have no background in finance. They make the same mistakes you and I make. Some are corrupt, others ignorant, and the last have no power. My question is why Congress has oversight, eh…

We may actually come to respect most of the moves by Cox, Bernanke, and Paulson. Are we still in an economic panic – No. Is the stock market still tanking – No. Are banks still providing no-doc and subprime loans – No. Is the AIG based insurance for State and Municipal bonds still in force – Yes.

We will have problems, but I don’t think spiraling deflation will be one of them.

Thank God…

 

[Steadygain]

American Consumer Confidence - hits NEW RECORD LOW last night in the wake of the worst job market in 16 years.

Consumer Confidence Index fell down to 38 from 44.7 in 11/08
Fell way more than expected

News from Housing isn't any better. The S&P Case-Shller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities plunged 18% in 10/08
That was worse than forecast and continues the downward trend that began last year.

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/081230a/

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Last year I barely reached the 2007 TSP Gain that was set in 1/07. As 2008 began I was ready for action and with great anticipation went in and got majorly burned as the year started.

As Squalebear's dad would say: Live and Learn or Live and Burn - so with that I'm trying to end the year on a good note. I do believe 2009 will be a good year but I will be way more cautious.

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Lady inspired me to research the Kress Cycle - which I am finding thoroughly fascinating. Bud Kress discovered the 120 year Master Cycle that began in 1894.

His findings coincide with Science - and a branch of math that few are familiar with - yet this particular branch brings the greatest understanding to both the Universe and everything within the Universe. There is a balance - a harmony - a blending. Within the Master Cycle are many other cycles (40 year...10 year...and so on).
The KEY - for every cycle bottom there is a corresponding cycle peak

Several features of Kress Cycles are very substantial. The biggest to me is the prediction of a major peroid of change for the Stock Markets and the Economy between the years 2010 - 2014. In 2012 our planet lines up with the Black Hole at the center of our galaxy and some of us anticapate major changes to occur - such as polar changes and fundamental shifts - that would majorly impact on our civilization.

I suspect Mr. Kress joins the ranks of Einstein and numerous others (who were majorly gifted in particular fields of science/math) and saw things no one else realized. Mr Kress most recently identified the 1999/2000 Market Top, 02/03 Bear Market End, and the 07 Market Top.

HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW YEAR EVERYONE - AND THANKS FOR MAKING MY YEAR A GOOD ONE FOR ME AND MY FAMILY - AND FOR ALL THE BONDS WE'VE FOUND ON THIS FANTASTIC SITE.

 

[Guest2]

Good Read Steady ! Oh yes, my pop only got wiser as I got older. I can
only wonder why that came to be ! Maybe because I started to understand
more about life and actually started to listen as I got older, where my pop
had "been there,,,done that,,,got the TShirt". In another 3 more years,
he'll be reaching Genius Status. I can only imagine how much easier my life
would have been if I simply listened sooner. Such is the way of nature !

 

[Larry Braaten]

With all this bad news, how did the market have a positive finish to the year? Any chance that we hit the bottom? Let's face it after a roughly 40% loss, there isn't too much further to drop (or is there?).

Happy New Year!

American Consumer Confidence - hits NEW RECORD LOW last night in the wake of the worst job market in 16 years.

Consumer Confidence Index fell down to 38 from 44.7 in 11/08
Fell way more than expected

News from Housing isn't any better. The S&P Case-Shller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities plunged 18% in 10/08
That was worse than forecast and continues the downward trend that began last year.

 

[Steadygain]

Naill Ferguson’s books (just got ‘The Assent of Money’, read ‘Colossus’ and ‘The Cash Nexus’. All very good).

I ordered the Economic Nobel Prize book - which is yet to arrive and 'The Assent of Money' popped up as a recommendation.

Maybe we should make a Blog on this site "Understanding the Elements of our Economy" and make a summary of the significant findings from our books. That way everyone can know the facts and understand exactly where we are.

With all this bad news, how did the market have a positive finish to the year? Any chance that we hit the bottom? Let's face it after a roughly 40% loss, there isn't too much further to drop (or is there?).

Happy New Year!

American Consumer Confidence - hits NEW RECORD LOW last night in the wake of the worst job market in 16 years.

Consumer Confidence Index fell down to 38 from 44.7 in 11/08
Fell way more than expected

News from Housing isn't any better. The S&P Case-Shller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities plunged 18% in 10/08
That was worse than forecast and continues the downward trend that began last year.

Hi Larry,
First of all WELCOME to our site - and especially my home.

I hope this New Year brings happiness to all of us.

With all this bad news, how did the market have a positive finish to the year?
The bad news cited had a link attached; so they are valid facts and not my opinion.

It had a positive finish on the last day mainly because we are emotional beings that have largely been conditioned over the years to expect Market Stability and Recovery to follow Weakness.

So an up day essentially reflects a determined hope of things to come. To say 'the market had a positive finish to the year' does not reflect the real market conditions - and all the more does not reflect our Economy. A Recession DID NOT START until the last quarter of 08. Only because a Recession is now undeniable does the MEDIA say a Recession has been ongoing for a year - that is a lie - it is deception designed to spur a better outlook.

Any chance that we hit the bottom? With Consumer Confidence recently hitting a new record low (along with numerous other factors) it is highly doubtful we hit the REAL BOTTOM - and I believe it will happen this year.

Let's face it after a roughly 40% loss, there isn't too much further to drop (or is there?). I would say MOST PEOPLE share this belief. The problem is: Throughout most of 08 a RECESSION did not happen and it appeared to be a correction. Rate Cuts and Huge BAIL OUTS managed to delay the PAIN AND THE WORST - until the the second half AND THEN WE REALIZED IT WAS TOO LATE.

Last year I began spelling out the details of our Economy within the first quarter and fully deserved to lose roughly 30% for not listening to my gut (and staying in safety). This year I am very content with the G Fund and thrilled with knowing I can't lose. With 2 ITFs a month I've found it better to all the more look at short/long range goals together. Short range is LOSS - Long range is GAIN.

Let this year be one of greater understanding - and may our economy be grounded in a better system where good and solid business practices eliminate the need for Unions; where the employed strive to excel and may those who work hard get the pay and recognition they deserve. Most of all - may all of us be willing to reach out to those in need and be genuinely grateful for the abundance we have.

 

[Birchtree]

The depth and extent of losses last year amount to a "secular" bear market - an extended interruption of the market's cycles, rather than a quick dip sandwiched between two bull markets. This is only the third "secular bear market" since 1920. The first was during the 1930s and the second in the 1970s. I believe the depth of this correction was perpetrated by the irrational panic from the 10,000 hedge funds trying to protect their marketing claims. This turned into an unprecedented event that was not related to fundamentals and the recovery could actually be a rocket move. IMHO we are still in a secular bull market that just experienced a cyclical bear phase. I'm undeterred in my thinking and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse. I read somewhere there is $8.85 trillion in cash on the side lines simply waiting....

 

[Steadygain]

The depth and extent of losses last year amount to a "secular" bear market - an extended interruption of the market's cycles, rather than a quick dip sandwiched between two bull markets. This is only the third "secular bear market" since 1920. The first was during the 1930s and the second in the 1970s. I believe the depth of this correction was perpetrated by the irrational panic from the 10,000 hedge funds trying to protect their marketing claims. This turned into an unprecedented event that was not related to fundamentals and the recovery could actually be a rocket move. IMHO we are still in a secular bull market that just experienced a cyclical bear phase. I'm undeterred in my thinking and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse. I read somewhere there is $8.85 trillion in cash on the side lines simply waiting....

Birch, my brother and friend,
I'm determined to not be overly pessimistic or optimistic about the Markets this year.

Regarding the 'secular bear market' you may be right. I have no clue. I'll read up on the economy to know what has happened and exactly where we are.

For now it appears we had a Financial Melt Down which was spurred by Excessive Debt and Toxic Credit. It seems to me that everything up to this point is 100% More Spending by the Government to fix the underlying problems. The only real change is Fannie going from a government/private entity to a wholly government entity.

But I believe there is a lot more to the picture than the media is projecting. I believe the RICH have immensely benefited though the entire ordeal and I want to learn how fully that less than 10% control everything else.

 

[Mista_Magee]

We're all hoping for the best in 2009.

 

[Steadygain]

We're all hoping for the best in 2009.

Thanks for the visit Mista Magee - and I would say we will get the best.

The BEST starts from within and gives account for the good health we have, the peace and safety of our home, the stability of our jobs, the treasures of our family and friends and the certainty that we are in the unfailing love and strength of our Lord.

The BEST would also include the freedom and blessings we have in our democratic society and the huge abundance our society shares ESPECIALLY in comparison with the rest of the world. For these things I am very proud to be the Veteran I am and I deeply appreciate all who were (and are) willing to take a stand for our country.

From strictly a financial perspective we (as a Capitalist Nation) have largely poisoned the overall globe - and the suffering continues and will continue for some time to come. What starts off as beautiful will likely get ugly before it's all over. This is where we are today from a TSP Perspective - (Market Perspective or Economic Perspective)

We can keep this year THE BEST by planning for long term gains and not getting too caught up in the day to day stuff. Enjoy the Auto Tracker but don't get competitive and don't look at it daily. Enjoy the love and warmth that many on this MB offer and focus on the priceless bonds of friendship and this will be your best year ever.

Take care my friend and may you end the year with at least a 15% gain.

 

[Corepuncher]

It makes sense to me that the bad (next few years) will be inversely proportional to the good (past few years). Whatever the opposite of being able to buy whatever you want, whenever you want is...I'm sure it won't be fun.

 

[Steadygain]

It makes sense to me that the bad (next few years) will be inversely proportional to the good (past few years). Whatever the opposite of being able to buy whatever you want, whenever you want is...I'm sure it won't be fun.

Kind of goes with 'Cycles' to which I'm becoming a Firm Believer.

My main concern is there will be a rolling at the bottom instead of the V Bounce - or the quicker sustained BULL. I don't believe the Economy (or more importantly the Markets) can remain stagnant although it may feel that way for a relatively short interval.

2008/09 - will have to meet with the inverse relationship it terms of a tanking and bottoming Market - so things can only get better.

As for your ACCURATE COMMENTS - I don't see that as a problem at all. To Buy whatever you want, whenever you want is the worst possible mindset to have. I have always lived within my means and have grown over the years to avoid debt, not live paycheck to paycheck, and buy smartly - taking care of what I have. Savings should be a continued endeavor until you get to the point where you can give and keep giving to those in need.

 

[Steadygain]

Hum ba cha cha - hum ba cha cha (Indian chants)

On a bank of the rivvverr
stood Running Bear, young Indian brave

On the other side of the rivverrrrr
stood his lovely Indian maid
Little White Dove was her name
Such a lovely sight to see

But thier tribes fought with each otttherrr
So their love could never be

Running Bear loved Little White Dove
with a love big as the sky
Oh Running Bear loved Little White Dove
with a love that couldn't die

He couldn't swim the raging rivveeerr
'cause the river was too wide
He couldn't reach the Little White Dove
waiting on the other side (leads us to conclude she loves him too)
In the moonlight he could see her
throwing kisses 'cross the waves (I would picture this as a kid)
Her little heart was beating faster
waiting for her Indian brave (as a young boy I pictured all Indians like Running Bear and Little White Dove wearing the typical attire and having tee pees and woods, rivers and all that stuff)

Running Bear loved Littel White Dove
with a love big as the sky
Running Bear loved Little White Dove
with a love that couldn't die

Running Bear dove in the water
Little White Dove did the same
And they swam out to each other
through the swirling stream they came (I always stretched this part out in my mind along with them meeting)
As their hands touched and their lips met
The raging river pulled them down
Now they'll always be together
in their happy hunting ground

Running Bear loved Little White Dove
with a love big as the sky
Running Bear loved Little White Dove
with a love that couldn't die

By J. Presston

 

[Steadygain]

Well I'm in G Fund and plan to stay there for awhile so it's a waiting game for me. If we had the unlimited moves of the past I'd be way more inclined to go in for a few quick gains.

I've been persuaded the first half of 09 would be hard - so I'll just sit back and wait it out. On Birch's Thread today a Kress Cycle analysist explains why the volitility was so large in 08 and all the more why it will disappear in mid 09 with the smooth upward swing. THIS UPWARD SWING - WITHOUT VOLITILITY - is what I call the real BULL MARKET. I'm use to the comfort of G and even though on the upswings it makes time drag on and on - during the down times it's worthwhile.

For those who stuck it out - there is honestly nothing to surpass Dollar Cost Aveaging over the long hull and this year will be the ultimate proof.

Things have been going a lot better at home. We saw the counselor yesterday and had the best reports ever. She asked about this site and how things were going and I told her: "It's like a family and there are some very solid connections - so it's good to stay in touch." So she encouraged Ann to let me continue with our connections on the weekends as well - and Ann agreed. My daughters went to WI on a Spiritual Retreat and the void was a huge motivator for making quality time. Now I can't help but believe that a lot of this was designed to help us all the more be ready for "The Empty Nest" when Carrie leaves in a few years.

Well I'm going to slow down a bit - but will continue to drop by occasionally. Does anyone remember the song "Running Bear" and how it started. As a child I never thought of some musicians gathered in a sound room; I always believed the beginning was captured live at some Indian Ceremony and then this guy comes on to sing the story. Ahh those were the days...

 

[Steadygain]

TSP Bear Cheerleader with Steadygain

Good Morning and welcome to today's show. Our friend Mr. Bear has done an outstanding job of trying to entice the masses to flee safety and run to high risk. This way he inflicts more damage and the more damage he inflicts - the more he wins the game.

Consider Inflation - over $7 Trillion has magically appeared over the past year in the never ending attempts to spur the economy.

Consider Deflation - the prices continue to plummet in desperate attempts to sell products.

The ECONOMY is shrinking - gas is going up - jobs are vanishing and stores are closing down. Consumer confidence is going down.

BOTTOMLINE - THE MARKETS WILL TANK.

Thank you and that concludes today's presentation

 

[Guest2]

TSP Bear Cheerleader with Steadygain

I Love the animation. I agree with your opinion. For me, its a question of
how much the market has absorbed this bad news already. I lean towards
seeing the market dropping for a better entry point. I'm at minimal risk at
this point with just over 3% in the (C) (S) and (I). I'm also playing with
their money too as those funds gained since January 1st, 2009. Obama
is speaking right now, only to announce his appointment of a Performance
Officer for the White House. I don't see this as a Market Mover. So the
question still remains; " Is this the beginning of a big drop, or, is this a
one day drop and the Market continues the recent rally tomorrow". I think
the overbought situation will find another down day tomorrow (IMHO).
But I don't believe we'll be testing the lows and we might actualy create
a higher low. Thats why I believe, I'll be jump in 50% some time this week.
Maybe as early as Thursday at 11:30am. Good Luck To Us Both my Big
Brother, its time for us to make some strong gains with cautious moves.

 

[nnuut]

If the markets follow the trend and bounce down off the upper Bollinger band and then up at the 20 DMA like it is suppose to do it would be nice, BUT:
I was thinking about jumping in the Market thursday, but looking at the prospect of bad numbers from the employment report I've changed my mind. NonFarm Payrolls and Unemployment numbers might get a bost from Christmas, but not as much as it has in the past.