Steadygain's Account Talk

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American consumers - lifeblood of the economy​

Spending slashed at 3.7% in 3rd Quarter. The biggest reduction since the 2nd Quarter of 1980, when we were in the grip of recession. ​

This summer spending was cut back the most in 28 years​

GDP in 3rd Quarter shrank at an 0.5% annual rate. The worst showing since the economy contracted at a 1.4% pace in the 3rd Quarter of 2001, when the nation was suffering through the last recession. ​

Americans' disposable income FELL at an annual rate of 9.2% in the 3rd Quarter. This is the LARGEST QUARTERLY DROP on records dating back to 1947. ​

CAN IT GET WORSE??? I AM JUST GETTING STARTED !!​
 
U.S. Export Sales were 3.4% in the 3rd Quarter. This shows a HUGE SLOWDOWN from the 12.3% growth rate of the 2nd Quarter. This reflects less demand from overseas buyers coping with their own economic problems.

Home builders slashed spending 17.6%, marking the 11th straight Quarterly Cut.

Nation's UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at a 14 year high and WILL CLIMB HIGHER.

Employers have CUT PAYROLLS every month this year and MORE LOSSES EXPECTED IN THE MONTHS TO COME.

DEFICIT: Bush began with $127 Billion in surplus from Clinton.
'Accountable DEBT' now stands at $10.6 Trillion and WILL GET MUCH HIGHER OVER THE NEXT YEAR.


Saving the WORST for last. :worried:
 
What is the Bottom Line​

All attempts to prevent a Painful Recession FAILED.​

Any idea how many job losses occured over the past year?​

Any idea how much investment portfolios have tanked?​

Do you know how much home values have shrunk?​

Money is getting much harder to get for those who need it and the PAIN IS JUSTGETTING STARTED. ​

Consumers will burrow further and THE ECONOMY will shrink through the rest of the year and into 2009. ​

2 Straight Quarters of contracting GDP = Recession. ​

FED dropped its key rate to 1%, a level seen only once before in the last half century. Banks exchange at a lower rate - which means they have been exchanging for free. ​

Add it all up folks and listen as the reports of jobs are being slashed in your area. We are now entering the PAINFUL STAGE and IT WILL GET WORSE. ​

Never could I be happier about being a Federal Employee and this is my first time as one in any Recession - but this one takes the cake. ​

Be very grateful for what you have - for you have a lot to be grateful for - HAPPY THANKSGIVING ​
 
I increased my holdings in a home builder today - (DHI) no fear here. Mortgage rates are dropping like Charlie from a Slick. I just have to be positive for the future.
 
Birchtree said:
I increased my holdings in a home builder today - (DHI) no fear here. Mortgage rates are dropping like Charlie from a Slick. I just have to be positive for the future.
Click to expand...


Birch,
My rock brother - YOU ARE THE FUTURE.

I limit the financial stuff to the TSP (as I'm not comfortable going beyond that).

The immediate future and short term future are going to be hit hard and what the FED and Treasury have done everything possible to ward off is crashing through and it's simply too late and they have nothing but invisible money to print and give. But we will all pay the price with lost jobs and taxpayer dollars.

THE ASSETS WE ARE BUILDING NOW - are like a seed getting stomped in the ground and in the months to come it will be like someone padding the dirt down harder. In the LONG RUN the seed will spread its roots and when it springs to life IT WILL GO AND KEEP GOING. VERY FEW RECOGNIZE WHAT A GOLDMINE OPPORTUNITY TODAY AND THE NEAR FUTURE PROVIDES - but most don't have the extra cash Birch or their money was tied up in something else.

For the TSP it's a time for safety and enjoying the show.

Have a great Thanksgiving Birch :cool:
 
Well I came on this MB largely as an experiment and it's my first open forum and of course I had no clue how to start or how to blend in with the ones actively in place.

I chose Jimi Hendrix because he was the first major commitment I ever had and when I opened my life to him I gave him everything. I'm the kind of person that doesn't just test the waters when I do something. When I joined the Army it was everything to me and I exceeded all their expectations. When I made "knowing the brain through and through" MY LIFE GOAL in the 10th grade it is something that carried through the years and to this day it's why I am so perfectly matched for psychiatry, counseling, and therapy.

BUT HERE - I (in the true Spirit of Hendrix) made a point of being totally free and fully opening all the channels of giving and receiving all the love that could possibly be established. I believe there is one that would honestly be there for me if I ever wound up like my friend Tom - and I believe he knows I'd be there for him. But there are many other connections that are deeply beautiful and that have hugely impacted my life. In the world of PMs I've understandably made a few women uncomfortable AND THAT'S COOL AND I HIGHLY RESPECT YOU FOR THAT - but please know I'm not your average kind of guy. I'm just incredibly real and way more open to letting bonds develop and leting things flow. Yet in this process I've been very touched by many and I dare say that many of you have hugely influenced what I've become. From thinking of myself as a "gem" to knowing the real impact I've had in other people's lives. From a deeper expression in music to very deep discussions on God and religion - it has all been very beneficial.

I guess in retrospect it's amazing that all these things would have transpired during the worse economic times of our lifetime and especially in combination with the limited IFTs and all the ongoing battles that prevailed - let alone the biggest election ever.

Well I may not be available until 12/24 - but my love goes out to everyone and thank you for making this such a wonderful site.

PEACE, LOVE, and HAPPINESS TO ALL :cool::cool:
 
Steady, I know you are on vacation but it was getting pretty gloomy out there so I stopped by to reflect and read some of your past posts. Your's is a safe haven from the negative. Thanks my friend, JB45
 
Hello my wonderful Brothers and Sisters!

A very special and heartfelt love goes out to the Gems and all those that have that 'Gem' appearance and feel. May we be as REAL as possible and let the God of all grace and glory magnify the TRUE CHARACTER and Beauty that makes us who and what we are.

I know I have made a point of honoring my wife in my decision to stay in G Fund during the continual collapse of the economy and the inevitable fall of the Markets. SO I have very much been at peace with that decision and have avoided further loss. NOW ALL THE STATES ARE DEMANDING THE SAME THING AS THE CORPORATIONS AND INDUSTRIES - WANTNG (AND EXPECTING) THE GOVERNMENT TO BAIL THEM OUT (SO THEY DON'T HAVE TO PAY FOR THE HUGE DEBT THEY ACCUMULATED). So things will undoubtedly get worse and the Markets will have to fall substantially lower. But at some point ALL OF US NEED TO GET A SENSE OF WHEN TO INVEST AND KEEP INVESTING. I believe that time is coming soon. When it falls BELOW '800' I will put 50% in C/S/I and if it goes BELOW '750' will put in the remaining and restructue my contributions to fit my investments (which will be 30 some % in each).

It may be another 6 months or a year before we really pull out of this and take off like a rocket BUT EVERYONE WHO WAITS TOO LONG WILL MISS OUT - SO NOW IS THE TIME TO START THINKING MORE LONG TERM AND SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY AT HAND.

We (Ella and I) love you and we've really had a wonderful time just enjoying life. Now she's insisting I take her for a walk - so I need to run.

Everyone remaining in G Fund - think about what I'm saying. You don't want to get in too early - BUT YOU DEFINATELY DO NOT WANT TO GET BACK IN TOO LATE. So come up with a guage that fits your safety level and is realistic and go with that.

Let that life shine through and may that sparkel really sparkel.
 
Steadygain said:
Hello my wonderful Brothers and Sisters!
Click to expand...

Hello
Steadygain said:
A very special and heartfelt love goes out to the Gems and all those that have that 'Gem' appearance and feel. May we be as REAL as possible and let the God of all grace and glory magnify the TRUE CHARACTER and Beauty that makes us who and what we are.
Click to expand...
Shiny and new....Everyday!
Steadygain said:
So things will undoubtedly get worse and the Markets will have to fall substantially lower. But at some point ALL OF US NEED TO GET A SENSE OF WHEN TO INVEST AND KEEP INVESTING. I believe that time is coming soon. When it falls BELOW '800' I will put 50% in C/S/I and if it goes BELOW '750' will put in the remaining and restructue my contributions to fit my investments (which will be 30 some % in each).
Click to expand...
DCA'ing back in are ya!!!!
Steadygain said:
It may be another 6 months or a year before we really pull out of this and take off like a rocket BUT EVERYONE WHO WAITS TOO LONG WILL MISS OUT - SO NOW IS THE TIME TO START THINKING MORE LONG TERM AND SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY AT HAND.
Click to expand...
April baby!!!!
Steadygain said:
We (Ella and I) love you and we've really had a wonderful time just enjoying life. Now she's insisting I take her for a walk - so I need to run.

Everyone remaining in G Fund - think about what I'm saying. You don't want to get in too early - BUT YOU DEFINATELY DO NOT WANT TO GET BACK IN TOO LATE. So come up with a guage that fits your safety level and is realistic and go with that.

Let that life shine through and may that sparkel really sparkel.
Click to expand...
:cool::cool:
 
justbizness45 said:
Steady, I know you are on vacation but it was getting pretty gloomy out there so I stopped by to reflect and read some of your past posts. Your's is a safe haven from the negative. Thanks my friend, JB45
Click to expand...

My wonderful friend,
Thank you so much for these heartfelt words of reassurance. I am truely honored by what so many have shared. It's strange because I honestly don't know what to do right now (or where to go from here). The image of myself varries so much I don't know who I am or how I fit in with an Economy that is breaking all records with very negative reflections. This board is largely designed to cheer each other on in ways of anticapating rallies and gains. Birch is the only one who never gives up and subsequently stands the most to lose when the Markets keep plummeting - but is also the one to always celebrate every gain and always holds to the certainty of the future. But everyone else (including me) are in a different game altogether and we are all driven by a huge desire to avoid loss and equally excited about the prospect of jumping in for what we believe will be a "certain rally". Somehow by posting this certainty of an emerging rally - or that we hit the bottom - and then getting many posts of confirmation and support - we all kind of spur each other to get in for something exciting.

I don't want to be gloomy my good friend and I have a hope that goes so far above any Market or any stock or combination of stocks. I've been told many things that are the most wonderful compliments I could ever imagine and there is no doubt that real love and friendship has come from every direction and a wide variety of sources. For all that I am very grateful.

But I hate to be "the one going against the grain" when everyone else is so optamistic about the here and now; and especially about the near future and next year. I am stepping back and looking at the hard data behind the economy; watching intently as record jobs are vanishing at the highest rate recorded; seeing the real pain reflected everywhere throughout the news; watching Oil drop to $41 dollars a barrel (and knowing only something very terrible could cause that to happen). I know first hand where the GDP is and how it has plunged. I know the true consumer spending on a National level and what that reflects. I know that the overwhelming majority of States like Michigan have NO HOPE WITHOUT THE GOVERNMENT BAILING THEM OUT and that is the only reason why they take the stand they do. Everyone keeps saying "just give me the money to pay off our debts and everything will be okay".

So you can look at your charts and dream; you can shake the 8 ball and ask your questions or in a crystal ball and all the more look to each other for support of your optamistic views and hope for the best.

I believe REALITY is something that can not be ignored. The only reason why the Markets ended the way they did Friday is because of vain optamism in defiance of reality. Reality is real - it is something that can not be denied or ignored for an extended period. So when REALITY sets in and the human interventions of our society (and the global society) become increasingly realized; jobs being lost at record levels and at a record pace; property being seized; home values dropping; increasingly numbers of delinquent loans/bills; and people increasing hoarding every penny they can; a GDP dropped to less than 1/4th of the previous quarter...AS THESE FIGURES BECOME MORE THAN JUST NUMBERS AND STATISTICS - and we all come to realize what REALITY means THE MARKETS WILL CRASH and a new BOTTOM is unavoidable.

So I am not saying any of this to be Gloomy - and I hope this place can always be a safe haven. But somethings we need know that G FUND is guaranteed to NEVER LOSE - and even though we may only make a penny in 2 or 3 weeks - WE AVOID LOSS IN OUR VAIN ATTEMPT TO MAKE A GAIN.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I am not comfortable being the only one going against the grain. I also don't feel right coming back when the Markets dive and showing Robo how the Markets are a reflection of the Economy. It's stange but this is a different place or maybe I've changed. Anyway I hope the best for everyone.
 
Steady there my friend - I feel a rumble under my feet and I see a dust cloud in the distance behind me - the hurd is definitely on the move. Two steps are critical to an economic recovery: stabilization in the housing sector and an unclogging of the credit system, to allow the Fed's low interest rates to spur demand. All my housing and restaurant stocks are on the move - that tells me something. I have treated myself well on this bottom by buying 422 individual stock positions and will continue to purchase more. The economy will be back on track by mid-2009. However, one looks at the market, given the extent of the fall, this is not a time to become increasingly bearish, but is one in which to make provisions and possible purchases for a recovery scenario. The truck is loaded and with these current gas prices let's ride.
 
Birchtree said:
The economy will be back on track by mid-2009.

I would say that is a good possibility

However, one looks at the market, given the extent of the fall, this is not a time to become increasingly bearish,

Birch, my brother, I couldn't agree with you more. In fact I started posting that this looks like a good time to get back in and even listed my projected entry points.

BUT THEN THE NEWS CAME OUT - and we know the worst is yet to come. It's hard to believe we could go much lower than the very substantial drop we already encountered. BUT MONEY is everything and now with record job losses and consumer spending dwendling to a bare trickle - in addition to home values going lower and a huge shift to part time employment and people increasingly unable to make their payments - I DO THINK THE WORST IS YET TO COME AND ONLY NOW ARE WE REALLY SEEING THE PAIN AND MISERY THE MASSES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH.
but is one in which to make provisions and possible purchases for a recovery scenario. The truck is loaded and with these current gas prices let's ride.
Click to expand...

Birch it's hard for us to not get excited because we are immune to the hardships and all the more celebrate the opportunities resulting for those who have money. Praise the Lord we are Federal Employees that hold the positions we have. That we have one daughter in Hawaii that's a Captain doing great and has found the man of her dreams; and another in Korea that is now telling us she's ready to stay there another year. But Birch - there are very few who live like us. Of course I would expect many of your stock picks to do exceedingly well over the next year and all the more in years to come.

But give it a little time my friend. The rocket fuel is heading down the runway - but there is likely a little settling yet to come. I am actually way more BULLISH than I am Bearish - I simply believe a new low is in the making to form the BIG V.
 
TSP Bear Cheerleader​

I picture me being a cheerleader like I picture Birch, CB, and Buster being 'Flying Ballerinas' ​

BUT on this SITE any thing can happen. ​

RAH RAH RAH - DOWN WITH THE MARKETS - HIP HIP HORRAY ​


Jobless Numbers are expected to exceed 3 million by mid 09.​

Everything up to this point has mainly been done to salvage the Financal Sector 'in hopes of keeping the Economy going' and avoiding a PAINFUL RECESSION. ​

A Recession would not be OFFICIAL until the present quarter. Over 500,000 jobs lost last month. 32,000 something involving the Financial Sector. Now Citibank is expecting to let over 50,000 go. ​

Look at jobs evaporating; consider the BROAD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BEING SHATTERED; Watch how consumer spending dwendles; watch the GDP. ​

Above everything else look at the underlying FUNDAMENTALS and honestly see if things have changed for the better or the worse over the past year (the rate going from over 5% to 1%). Well over $ 3 Trillion in bail outs already. BUT LOOK HOW MUCH THE MONEY FOR BAIL OUTS HAS INCREASED SINCE 10/08.​

So RAH RAH RAH - I have no doubt that we have desperately needed a REAL BOTTOM and have not come close to where the BOTTOM NEEDS TO GO. Are we over sold?? Of couse we are - BUT THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE. The only way the Markets can honestly take off from a firm foundation is by letting the Markets go to the BOTTOM that the FED, Treasury, and Global Governments have done everything possible to avert. ​

So I will shake my pom poms and cheer the BEAR :toung::nuts:​

For now I'll sit back and wait for 620 - 650 and clip my heels togehter, close my eyes and say "There's no place like G, There's no place like G, There's no place like G" ​
 
The DJIA 50 day line is at 9033 - watch for its arrival. Once bullish volume is combined with bullish momentum, the big barriers will be knocked out of the way. Today the bulls will crush a few bears after 1500 hours,
 
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