Steadygain's Account Talk

[McDuck]

Review over Robo's Posts - especially over the past few weeks.

So how do we have a winning game plan?
1. Capital Preservation - stay in G Fund
2. Wait PATIENTLY for the hard facts to catch up with reality - THEY WILL AND THE MARKTS WILL TUMBLE
3. Wait for huge drops - 2 or 3 days of small drops (100 to 200 points) followed by 400 to 500 point drops then go in FULLY 1 or 2 days
4. Repeat 1 - 3 until we hit a REAL BOTTOM

Sounds like a good plan to me. But the noon deadline makes it dicey.

 

[Steadygain]

Sounds like a good plan to me. But the noon deadline makes it dicey.

Noon deadlines would only be an issue for "guessing rapid jumps in and out"

Look for Cycles or Trends and the noon deadlines are meaningless.

With a Recession officially beginning in the Last Quarter of 08 we are in a downward Trend. The Markets hit a low point in 11/08 when 'The Pain' of the Recession was most being acknowledged. Central Banks and Treasury Responded Aggressively to curb things and the Markets Stabilized (with a mild growth). Massive jobs were lost; GDP plunged; unemployment/reduced hours/declining wages all kicked in as the Markets stabilized and made some gains. Since the brief stabilization things have gotten progressively worse and now we are entering DEFLATION - with everything (except gas) going for unbelievable prices.

Politics/Media - can only pull it off for so long. Once the down trend starts on the magnitude that concides with 'reality' we should see huge drops mixed with little bounces. The BIG DROPS are yet to come. What we're seeing now is simply the crumbling...the ice is just beginning to break.

From a CYCLE perspective - everything is in balance
As the Markets dive - more and more money goes to the side lines (and vice versa).
The accelerated gains over the past 5 years - especially with the Housing Sector fiasco - MEANT THE UPWARD CYCLE - would have to balanced with a downward cycle.

We know Socialism Fails and there is NO WAY the global economy would ever consider shifting towards Socialism. Some changes will have to occur before it's all over - a tweaking of Capitalism - if we are to avoid Recessions (or even a total collapse at some point in the future). For now the Cycles are in control and the BULL will undoubtedly win at this point in history.

 

[TSPinWV]

So how do we have a winning game plan?
1. Capital Preservation - stay in G Fund
2. Wait PATIENTLY for the hard facts to catch up with reality - THEY WILL AND THE MARKTS WILL TUMBLE
3. Wait for huge drops - 2 or 3 days of small drops (100 to 200 points) followed by 400 to 500 point drops then go in FULLY 1 or 2 days
4. Repeat 1 - 3 until we hit a REAL BOTTOM

Steady,
I totally agree. And, like you, when I go in, I go in 100%. :nuts: So far it is working well.
We have to focus on funds preservation and get what we can from this market, given the situation we're in with limited transfers.:notrust:

I appreciate you and your posts.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,
I totally agree. And, like you, when I go in, I go in 100%. :nuts: So far it is working well.
We have to focus on funds preservation and get what we can from this market, given the situation we're in with limited transfers.:notrust:

I appreciate you and your posts.

Thank you TSPinWV

The limited IFTs had a major impact on 'The 3000' and were largely responsible for my huge loss last year. But I have learned as a result - and patience is everything.

Also learned to ignore Politics. The first half of 08 was a joy ride down as the prospects of an election year got closer.

So I was 'burned' in a number of ways. But it's cool as the rewards of numerous bonds more than made up for the losses.

Carrie finished the Book last night. She did not know the characters were based on real TSP Members until the end. It was equally a thrill to be able to tell her who TSPTalk, Luv2read, and many others were.

Anyway - this is a time to forget the day to day - and look at the total picture - consider all you have - and all you are - and where you are heading. For me that would be the mountains of NC to toast in the BULL MARKET with Birch a few years from now.

 

[Steadygain]

Market Visualization
​

The Markets are like a car radiator that is over heating. Once it gets too hot it's hard to bring under control. Central Banks added emergency water to keep it running - and try to correct the problem but the radiator needs to cool down.

Water will not do the trick - it needs antifreeze - but not enough is available. The antifreeze is being stock piled and waiting for the engine to cool down. More water is being added now but the engine will need to shut down in the near future - cool off and flush everything out - then new antifreeze will fill it up and it will run perfectly for a few years. ​

 

[RonUSPSretired]

That's a great analogy!

Market Visualization​

The Markets are like a car radiator that is over heating. Once it gets too hot it's hard to bring under control. Central Banks added emergency water to keep it running - and try to correct the problem but the radiator needs to cool down. ​

Water will not do the trick - it needs antifreeze - but not enough is available. The antifreeze is being stock piled and waiting for the engine to cool down. More water is being added now but the engine will need to shut down in the near future - cool off and flush everything out - then new antifreeze will fill it up and it will run perfectly for a few years. ​

 

[Steadygain]

That's a great analogy!

Thanks my friend

If tomorrow gives us a really good dive - Then I'll describe the Markets like a game of pool and elaborate on the importance of positioning the cue ball. 'Today we'll practice back spinning the cue ball'. :nuts::laugh:


No clue why I just thought of this but when I went out to the garage this morning to get in my car I belted out 'RASPBERRY BERET' opera style - so my voice kind of echoed. Immediately realized my post to Mista McGee sparked that spontaneous reaction.

Well be cool - gotta catch up on some things

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks my friend

If tomorrow gives us a really good dive - Then I'll describe the Markets like a game of pool and elaborate on the importance of positioning the cue ball. 'Today we'll practice back spinning the cue ball'. :nuts::laugh:

Today is a wonderful DIVE !!
The Markets are like a game of pool A game of physics based on 'controlling the cue ball'. Today we will practice 'Back Spin' - go fully in and interact will everything out there - make an impact - then shift back out to safety.

Many of the MB lay awake at night wondering what my next Opera piece will be...

Rollin' rollin' rollin' keep them doggies rollin'

RAW HIDE

RAAWWWW HIDDDDEEEE

 

[Steadygain]

Mandatory TSP Meeting ​

Ladies and Gentleman - ​

UNITY for all who went High Risk today​

At 1400 hrs CST (2:00 PM) ​

All should stand - lift your arm/hand - raise your middle finger

Thanks for coming everybody - refreshments are in the back

That concludes today's meeting ​

 

[wv-girl]

Mandatory TSP Meeting ​

Ladies and Gentleman - ​

UNITY for all who went High Risk today​

At 1400 hrs CST (2:00 PM) ​

All should stand - lift your arm/hand - raise your middle finger​

Thanks for coming everybody - refreshments are in the back ​

That concludes today's meeting ​

Steady--Me thinks you may have too much time on your hands--or too much caffeine? :toung:

 

[Steadygain]

Steady--Me thinks you may have too much time on your hands--or too much caffeine? :toung:

Or...BOTH...my sweet lady

It's a winter storm here - snow's coming down - so things are quiet.

You and I have been waiting patiently THIS WHOLE YEAR for a day like today - so I see it as something to celebrate

I'm sending a letter to someone who knows nothing about me - to persuade her to follow my advise - and late last night/early this morning I woke from a hard sleep and finally think I know what to tell her. Please pray for her - that she will get the help she needs

Life is good - I saw a house with 3 porches (3 can you believe that) on the old route I use to take from Baltimore to Summersville, WV.

Things are going great - I hope they are for you

 

[Steadygain]

Life is good - I saw a house with 3 porches (3 can you believe that) on the old route I use to take from Baltimore to Summersville, WV.

My mistake - make that at least 6 porches (that's six) plus a big deck


BTW everyone - and I mean everybody - sorry I've been so hyper

I've been in G Fund for months and months and did not mean to be insensitive - so I am sorry for anyone taking a hit today - and hope all of us get a decent bounce.

 

[Birchtree]

My last $9.00 price in the C fund was v$9.20 - I wouldn't mind collecting that price again by the end of the week. The low of last year was $8.66 and I missed it by one day - shucks.

 

[Steadygain]

WELCOME BACK 350z


​

Looks like a buying opportunity - will probably go to G tomorrow ​

 

[Frozen]

Uh, I thought you just said you were going in 50c/50S? I am constantly confused and amused by your manic swings of thought and logic. I seem to recall you recently taking the pledge to preserve what you have left and not chase the bear. You seem to envy the financial conviction of others, but exercise none of this yourself. Is your recently found financial bravado just cheerleading for Mr. Birch, or do you actually expect this market to heal quickly?

 

[justbizness45]

Today is a wonderful DIVE !!
The Markets are like a game of pool A game of physics based on 'controlling the cue ball'. Today we will practice 'Back Spin' - go fully in and interact will everything out there - make an impact - then shift back out to safety.

Many of the MB lay awake at night wondering what my next Opera piece will be...

Rollin' rollin' rollin' keep them doggies rollin'

RAW HIDE

RAAWWWW HIDDDDEEEE

Steady, I wanted to thank you for this post this morning. Dang song was stuck in my head all day!!:suspicious::laugh::nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Uh, I thought you just said you were going in 50c/50S?

Indeed - and I was the FIRST ONE to make it clear I was going fully into high risk. I also make it clear that I went 50C/50S

So my dear friend...where is the problem???

I am constantly confused and amused by your manic swings of thought and logic.

The confusion part has concerned me...especially after Alevin and WV-girl said something. I pretty much decided that maybe I need to tone down a lot. The last thing I want to do is get on people's nerves; and that's a major risk you take by being too spontaneous and rambling off the top of your head.

The amusement part is totally what drives me to make most of the comments I make on the MB. My hope is someone will be surprized and delighted with something not dealing with equations and strictly financial stuff. SO I GUESS 'BEING REAL' is an honest endeavor.
I'm honored you are amused... I really am.

I seem to recall you recently taking the pledge to preserve what you have left and not chase the bear.
My friend, I honestly believe you mean well; and you have attempted to challenge me before. LOOK AT MY RECENT PREVIOUS POSTS. I stress my game plan is to #1 PRESERVE EVERY PENNY and #2 PATIENTLY WAIT FOR PERIODS OF SUBSTANTIAL WEAKNESS AND GO IN ON MAJOR DIVES
That is exactly what I have done. My goal is not to stay in G and in the year with just G Gains. My goal is to play it smart...WAIT for the best opportunities and seize them up.
I personally have only ONE GOAL for my TSP - To not lose a penny and to make the most substantial gains possible.

You seem to envy the financial conviction of others,
There is NO ONE on this BOARD that influences me - I make my own decisions and follow NO ONE. Look who made the first IFT yesterday to high risk and who spelled out what he was doing and why.

ENVY is a poor choice of words. I admire many on this MB and in fact I deeply respect a lot and sincerely love many as well. It is largely the people on this MB who made me realize how special I am; how much I have to offer, and my life is better because of them.

but exercise none of this yourself.
Again - if you read through my previous posts you will see exactly how I decided to 'PLAY THE MARKETS' this year. I am a man of my word. I did not call CP "wimp man" - because he still went high risk and on the whole I think we have a lot in common.

Is your recently found financial bravado just cheerleading for Mr. Birch, or do you actually expect this market to heal quickly?

Mr. Birch is one of the few I'd take a trip for; spend some real money if needed; and do whatever I needed to do on his behalf.

I BELIEVE THE MARKETS ARE GOING DOWN BIG TIME and part of me can't help but hurt for him. SO YES - AS A BROTHER AND FRIEND - I'LL DO WHAT I CAN TO SHOW MY SUPPORT.

I do not expect the Market to heal quickly - I can elaborate on that latter. I expect to take advantage of HUGE DROPS as it goes down.

May you find His Peace and Blessings - thanks for writting

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, I wanted to thank you for this post this morning. Dang song was stuck in my head all day!!:suspicious::laugh::nuts:

NO - THANK YOU !!

It was fun belting out 'Raw hide' - I could picture everyone in the auditorium thinkin' "wow that guy sure doesn't need a microphone"

Uh, I thought you just said you were going in 50c/50S? I am constantly confused and amused by your manic swings of thought and logic. I seem to recall you recently taking the pledge to preserve what you have left and not chase the bear. You seem to envy the financial conviction of others, but exercise none of this yourself. Is your recently found financial bravado just cheerleading for Mr. Birch, or do you actually expect this market to heal quickly?

Frozen,
On the whole I am a "Market Timer" and not a buy and holder. During an obvious 'Recession' it makes a lot more sense 'TO ME' to stay in G Fund over the duration. HOWEVER - 'High Risk' is exactly what it implies...and at some point if you have the balls to do it then I say go all the way and don't be wimpy about it. When I do decide to go High Risk - it is only after 'the ice has broken through and a major plunge has occured' (like yesterday).

Today we see the plunge continuing - and I'm cool with that - because I know this is a full blown Recession and the Markets have to go down.

However, humans are illogical and emotional and often do things randomly - SO I STILL EXPECT A BOUNCE TO OCCUR before a sustained sell off continues. As noted yesterday - when the bounce occurs (if it does) then I grab fast gains and hold on. I have made it clear that I expect NEW LOWS.

You may mean well - but you sound bitter; almost challenging. I openly welcome a challenge and am more than prepared to stand behind my decision. If I lose some - it goes with the territory - but the odds of winning are impossible to dismiss (just look at poolman)

 

[Birchtree]

I noticed that oil is at $34.86 down 2.34 while the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 4.96% which is the lowest ever and we now have a record housing affordability. We are setting up real nice here for a multi-year recovery and market rebound. Test the Nov. 20th lows and move forward.

Our mutual friend Frozen simply needs to thaw out a little and stretch out that sphincter - he's wound a little tight if you ask me.

 

[Steadygain]

I noticed that oil is at $34.86 down 2.34 while the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 4.96% which is the lowest ever and we now have a record housing affordability. We are setting up real nice here for a multi-year recovery and market rebound. Test the Nov. 20th lows and move forward.

Our mutual friend Frozen simply needs to thaw out a little and stretch out that sphincter - he's wound a little tight if you ask me.

Volcker: Regulate to prevent future crisis

There is NO ONE known better suited to turning things around and getting things right than PAUL VOLCKER. He is the best of the best.

The Rate Cuts - Bail Outs - Stimulus Packages - were all needed. The main problem is they did it way too slowly and did not put nearly enough in. Only now are they finally bringing the Loans down to stimulate the economy.

There has just been way too much BS - Birch - but it's over and done with.


http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/news/economy/volcker_regulation/index.htm

The main problem now is we are meeting up with other records that will further distroy consumer confidence and delay any chance of a recovery.

First we need Obama (Volcker) - to bring in a breath of fresh air and somehow display 'a ray of hope'

Second we need to stop playing games and let the Markets really crash - 600 would be nice - that would get things going

Third we need INFLATION - to spur spending and make these loans even better. I would have brought it down to 4.5% at least 6 months prior.

Forth - don't just show us this guy living in his $7.5M apartment after solidly being identified with scamming $50B from the public. Show us how everything is being seized - that every penny that can be squeezed is being squeezen - and show us the Prison and Inmates he is soon to entertain. We should be seeing all kinds of people losing everything - day after day - and them heading to Prison in just their underwear.


He probably does not mean to come across like I take him; if you're a DH and that's how I perceive you then "I'm grated and it's really hard for me to avoid that" - so it's probably way more me than him.