Steadygain's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Birch, and others have mentioned Historic Panic Sell offs. I believe 2009 will be most know for that event. We got a taste of that in 9/08 but it passed too quickly and beginning in 10/08 the FED and Treasury made major shifts to pour money into the Global Economy. NOW - we've got 1/4 of 1% left. Europe is falling fast and it is very closely linked with us. If it keeps falling - it will be the best event in the LONG RUN - will be like the roller coster going down the steepest drop which will form the V Formation. A BOTTOM will undoubted be hit and money will start pouring in.

Steady,Remember, the market is looking for answers and we still haven't seen many. If Obama goes down the path to work on the infrastructure, then it mostly means government jobs and no investment opportunities. However, there may be collateral "contracts" to support these endeavors.Until we see commercial opportunities, investors will keep a hold on their capital.I to wish for a more lucrative future, but that remains to be seen."E"

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,Remember, the market is looking for answers and we still haven't seen many.

The answers are much clearer than I expected. Paul Krugman's 'The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008' is absolutely amazing.

Like the book I wrote for Carrie based on SugarandSpice's dream of 'A New Earth'. She didn't know what to expect either but she got way more than she bargined for. She became the center piece of the entire universe - the perfect bloom - forever displaying the ultimate beauty and glory.

I mention that only because Carrie read that very slowly (2 or 3 pages at a time) to really absorb everything. That is how I had to read Paul Krugman's book - (and re-read it) - before I could move on to the next chapter.

For me it's a lot more comforting having those answers. Unfortunately it's way BIGGER than most people realize.

If Obama goes down the path to work on the infrastructure, then it mostly means government jobs and no investment opportunities. However, there may be collateral "contracts" to support these endeavors.

His plan is about the best one I could think of. He's hoping to build 'an optimistic outlook' by making more jobs and building a better foundation. Also is pouring a lot more money into the economy.

I think devalution and inflation (along with the Markets really tanking) will do more spur spending and reverse consumer confidence than anything else.

Until we see commercial opportunities, investors will keep a hold on their capital.I to wish for a more lucrative future, but that remains to be seen."E"

A more lucrative future, in the short run is a guarantee. The way the Economy is structured there is no way to avoid it. Eventually the prices will be SO GOOD and SUCH AN OPPORTUNITY the Markets will sky rocket. Unfortunately - that wanting to grab the BULL pushes things to fast - the Euphoria is too much a factor driving things up.

BTW - Thanks so much for your F/U on what you meant by the 'weak link' and how the Military should function. That's probably the best post I can think of. Very well put and it really brings out your character.

 

[Frixxxx]

A more lucrative future, in the short run is a guarantee. The way the Economy is structured there is no way to avoid it. Eventually the prices will be SO GOOD and SUCH AN OPPORTUNITY the Markets will sky rocket. Unfortunately - that wanting to grab the BULL pushes things to fast - the Euphoria is too much a factor driving things up.

BTW - Thanks so much for your F/U on what you meant by the 'weak link' and how the Military should function. That's probably the best post I can think of. Very well put and it really brings out your character.

I tend to be short on words and more on emotion. If you could hear me say the words, I tend to vocalize better than I type.

BTW, here's Forbes look at Obama's job fair:
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/106459/Jobs-That-Obama's-Stimulus-Program-Will-Create

 

[Steadygain]

G Fund - for gloomy outlooks.

It's kind of strange how all of us get so excited on the up days - we are so deeply ingrained to cheer the BULL

Days like this I feel the G Fund is hugely over looked

I wish we could see more celebration for G Fund -especially if days like today become more common. I know it's kind of weird - but I wish as a collective MB more members were willing to share:

Whew!! Nothing like the G Fund.

I guess I'm saying the BULL is not the only thing to celebrate - and we'd be hard pressed to celebrate it during a Major Recession....

For some reason we have a hard time celebrating the G Fund - but in all seriousness it's perhaps the Greatest Fund of all. If we were in C/S/I and the Markets were soaring we'd all be on top of the world; if we were in F Fund and it was flying high as Markets tanked there would still be lots of celebration.

So G Funders - please be willing to make yourselves known - and brighten the atmosphere!

 

[Frixxxx]

so g funders - please be willing to make yourselves known - and brighten the atmosphere!

hooray g fund!!!!

go g fund!!!!

 

[msls6]

Thank you for pointing that out! G is the best place to be today. Great move on Friday for your ITF to G!
msls6

 

[350zCommTech]

For some reason we have a hard time celebrating the G Fund - but in all seriousness it's perhaps the Greatest Fund of all. If we were in C/S/I and the Markets were soaring we'd all be on top of the world; if we were in F Fund and it was flying high as Markets tanked there would still be lots of celebration.

So G Funders - please be willing to make yourselves known - and brighten the atmosphere!

Looks like somebody is very happy about their move to the G on Friday.

 

[Steadygain]

hooray g fund!!!!

go g fund!!!!

Absolutely - NOTHING LIKE GUARANTEED SAFETY

Thank you for pointing that out! G is the best place to be today. Great move on Friday for your ITF to G!
msls6

Thank you!! msls6 and it's really great to have you on the MB.

I was very burned last year - so have come up with a wholly new game plan that works well with Recession and 2 IFTs.

Looks like somebody is very happy about their move to the G on Friday.

The most amazing part is - I thought TODAY the Markets would soar and actually expected a 5 - 10% gain this week ONLY until the Recession finally ended. But I was cool with that and honestly happy for all who raked it in.

I'm thrilled to pieces I went to G. It's mainly sticking with my original plan and not allowing anything to sway me (even Obama Day). If we had unlimited moves I would stay in G today and see how tomorrow goes. I believe most of the down turn IS NOT DUE TO EARNINGS but is mostly related to Global Weakness. A stronger dollar does not neccessarily mean a good thing...:worried:...if Europe/Asia/Japan is going down the drain. I really do wish I had a few more IFTs to use because another 500 point drop will undoubtedly have a bounce and it's way more the Guaranteed Bounces - I dread missing.

But I'm grateful for what I have - and am hopeful to get 2% a month until we Bottom then GAME PLAN will change.

 

[350zCommTech]

I really do wish I had a few more IFTs to use because another 500 point drop will undoubtedly have a bounce and it's way more the Guaranteed Bounces - I dread missing.

But I'm grateful for what I have - and am hopeful to get 2% a month until we Bottom then GAME PLAN will change.

Amen!

 

[Boghie]

Watch Out for the G Fund...

All you rich b***s****ds,

Watch out for the 'G Fund'. The Treasury can legally raid our 'G Fund' assets in time of need. For example, when they feel the pressure to borrow past the 'debt ceiling' and Congress can't act quickly enough to raise the debt ceiling credit card max...

Of course the Treasury will promise to pay it back - with interest!!!

However, if the need is great and we are called to sacrifice - GIVE IT UP for the good of the Mob Museum in Chicago!!!

There is a NEED!!!

Some members of Congress WILL balk!!!

Eventually, folks will stop buying our Treasuries!!!

Then, demanding the promised payback will be simply unpatriotic. Are you really going to ask for more than a Social Security check at age 82.

For me, even though there is a chance for a slow loss, I will be running to the safety of the ‘F Fund’.

 

[CountryBoy]

You must be CSRS's or you would've been worried for years with the feds raiding our SS Funds. If it gets so bad that the G fund isn't safe, then you'd better have loaded up on ammo, guns and food, cause that'll be the most valuable equity along with a steady job with the fed and BHO has promised to produce 600,000 more fed jobs.

Good luck in the F fund, it could be the big winner again. I'll stick with the G for the time being, but then I've loade up on the above items and as much as I want to retire in 4 years, I might have to stay.

CNBC just said Citi cut divi to $.01 per share.

CB

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Watch Out for the G Fund...

All you rich b***s****ds,
Man, I guess I'm horrible at Wheel of Fortune.
Watch out for the 'G Fund'. The Treasury can legally raid our 'G Fund' assets in time of need. For example, when they feel the pressure to borrow past the 'debt ceiling' and Congress can't act quickly enough to raise the debt ceiling credit card max...
This is already being done.
Of course the Treasury will promise to pay it back - with interest!!!

However, if the need is great and we are called to sacrifice - GIVE IT UP for the good of the Mob Museum in Chicago!!!
Sacrifice will be when Congress taps ALL Retirement plans.
There is a NEED!!!

Some members of Congress WILL balk!!!

Eventually, folks will stop buying our Treasuries!!!
Already happening!!!!

Then, demanding the promised payback will be simply unpatriotic. Are you really going to ask for more than a Social Security check at age 82.
I never have or will count on SS
For me, even though there is a chance for a slow loss, I will be running to the safety of the ‘F Fund’.

See above note on ALL Retirements

Thank you for your input!

CB, NO WAY, they got a penny? I want it BACK NOW!!!!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Watch Out for the G Fund...

All you rich b***s****ds,

Watch out for the 'G Fund'. The Treasury can legally raid our 'G Fund' assets in time of need. For example, when they feel the pressure to borrow past the 'debt ceiling' and Congress can't act quickly enough to raise the debt ceiling credit card max...

Of course the Treasury will promise to pay it back - with interest!!!

However, if the need is great and we are called to sacrifice - GIVE IT UP for the good of the Mob Museum in Chicago!!!

There is a NEED!!!

Some members of Congress WILL balk!!!

Eventually, folks will stop buying our Treasuries!!!

Then, demanding the promised payback will be simply unpatriotic. Are you really going to ask for more than a Social Security check at age 82.

For me, even though there is a chance for a slow loss, I will be running to the safety of the ‘F Fund’.

Interesting read - but fortunately I was already aware of that.

I'd say before they take the G Fund there would be other moves such as Reduction in Force (cutting Federal Employee jobs), stopping any Matching, and increasing Taxes. Taking the G Fund would be a last resort...as the Fed can print an unlimited supply.

Social Security is something I no longer worry about. I use to but I'm now convinced it's good to go for at least another 15 years. So I may be one of the last to get in on a good thing and my SS payments are fairly decent.

Boghie, you're seeing things from TODAY's point of view. Where things are now and where we are heading in the short term. Please know this is just a passing phase for now. A Cycle can only exist with downs and ups - and the same with trends. The further we DROP the more BULLISH I AM.

Be cool my friend - this is just a CONTRACTION due to excessive EXPANSION. In another year we'll all be shouting in celebration.


Whops - thanks Frixxxx - good job and CB it's always a pleasure my friend.

 

[Boghie]

What, me worry

I've actually still got 32% of my assets in C/S/I.

Actually, let me rephrase that - yuk, yuk...

I am young enough (44) to survive a long dump. And, I don't think President Obama will be dogmatic enough to damage my retirement (stock market) as a policy. That will make some of his voters rather mad, eh...

As far as the Feds raiding 401(k) accounts or other funds in the TSP (ie. F/C/S/I), I don't think they can. Those funds are in our name and they are not Social Security bonds. The 'G Fund' is a safe investment because it is invested in Social Security bonds. That makes it accessable to those who just feel the need to borrow against them. The other funds are not invested in assets that are reachable by Congress or the Administration.

The Feds can, however: stop matching, start firing, raid the G, or continue Treasury auctions. By the way, raiding the 'G Fund' is standard operating procedure. They have done so in 2004, and 2006 when Congress did not increase the debt ceiling.

I am looking at this as a buying opportunity for up to 60% of my holdings. For me to buy, President Obama has to give me - and the market - confidence. I think that will occur.

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Watch Out for the G Fund...

All you rich b***s****ds,
Watch out for the 'G Fund'. The Treasury can legally raid our 'G Fund' assets in time of need. For example, when they feel the pressure to borrow past the 'debt ceiling' and Congress can't act quickly enough to raise the debt ceiling credit card max...

Of course the Treasury will promise to pay it back - with interest!!!
However, if the need is great and we are called to sacrifice - GIVE IT UP for the good of the Mob Museum in Chicago!!!

There is a NEED!!!
Some members of Congress WILL balk!!!
Eventually, folks will stop buying our Treasuries!!!
Then, demanding the promised payback will be simply unpatriotic. Are you really going to ask for more than a Social Security check at age 82.
For me, even though there is a chance for a slow loss, I will be running to the safety of the ‘F Fund’.

01-11-09[/size];202553]Why are we assuming that it will be the private sector that will be clank-fooed by the recession (depression...)?
Why should this economic transition follow the model of the past economic challenge? When we started dealing with the Depression our government was much smaller and had little or no debt. Now, our Federal government is the epitome of an unworthy borrower. We have lived beyond our means for 48 years+. Even in boom years we run deficits - excepting two years. And, most of those 48 years were growth years. That is one reason I do not like to have my retirement assets in Social Security bonds (that is, the ‘G Fund’). The ‘G Fund’ can be raided by the treasury when the government must, absolutely must, blow past the congresscritter defined ‘debt ceiling’…
So, I ask another question:
What would an economic tsunami (to use a blow dried talking head term) look and act like if it targeted the government sector?

And, an anciliary question:
If the public sector is the hardest hit (it is probably far more leveraged than the private sector) why would anyone maintain holdings in the 'G Fund'?

I don't understand how the F fund provides more safety than the G??? It seems to me that either one is a factor that depends on the economic soundness of the treasury.
​

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: What, me worry

The Feds can, however: stop matching, start firing, raid the G, or continue Treasury auctions.

what about reducing or eliminating COLAs?

 

[Boghie]

Concur with everyone...

I concur with everyone.

I have been sounding like a broken record, but I think everyone should be aware of risks inherent in the 'G Fund'.

It is not riskless. It can be raided. It is the only TSP fund that can be raided (other than maybe the 'G Fund' portion of the L Funds.

Do I think it will be raided and not paid back? NO.

Do I think it can happen? YES

Is the 'G Fund' more secure than all the rest? YES, if the government can continue borrowing and paying its debt service. The 'G Fund' does not bounce with the market.

So, will I pull back into the G? Maybe. But, I will definitely be out in February. The fund has been raided twice in four years in February. It is probably more of a principle thing with me...

I will shut up now

 

[Steadygain]

Re: What, me worry

I've actually still got 32% of my assets in C/S/I.

Not sure what you mean


Actually, let me rephrase that - yuk, yuk...

Oh thanks....now I understand. Excellent way of putting it.

Fortunately that means 68% (the Bulk) is somewhere else.


I am young enough (44) to survive a long dump.

That's an understatement....you will survive lesser dumps to come

And, I don't think President Obama will be dogmatic enough to damage my retirement (stock market) as a policy. That will make some of his voters rather mad, eh...

No need to worry there. He's got Paul as his main advisor. That's the beauty of the whole situation - HE DID NOT NEED YEARS OF EXPERIENCE - What he needs is a very good team of advisors who do have the experience and Financially things will have to turn around. The BULL is long overdue - expect an even greater landslide 2nd term election.

As far as the Feds raiding 401(k) accounts or other funds in the TSP (ie. F/C/S/I), I don't think they can. Those funds are in our name and they are not Social Security bonds.
THANK YOU !! I really appreciate you saying this. Once in awhile wild hairs take over and all you hear is how Barclays, the Board, and Others are about to take our TSP (and everything will vanish).

Don't get me wrong. I appreciate people getting upset about various events - BUT stirring up hysteria is wrong - especially when it reflects that those over us are itching to take our Retirement.

The 'G Fund' is a safe investment because it is invested in Social Security bonds. That makes it accessable to those who just feel the need to borrow against them.

You're absolutely RIGHT ON TARGET. The G Fund is the safest investment possible. It would be extremely difficult to have to recalulate all the TSPer's assets if they took the G Fund. In the wildest - remotest event that really did happen - my guess is they wouldn't say a thing and our accounts would remain exactly as they are. Only years and years from now would we find they skimmed into it.

The other funds are not invested in assets that are reachable by Congress or the Administration.

Hmm, well I can't help but believe if they wanted it - there is nothing we could do to stop it. But I feel we're talking strictly in terms of nightmarish fantasies - and coming up with incredibly wild senarios

The Feds can, however: stop matching, start firing, raid the G, or continue Treasury auctions. By the way, raiding the 'G Fund' is standard operating procedure. They have done so in 2004, and 2006 when Congress did not increase the debt ceiling.

Then you proved my point - NEVER was this reflected against my TSP Account and nor did you read about anyone saying 'Their money was taken'.

To stop Matching - is something that would be far more realistic and that would certainly be a MAJOR SIGN of TROUBLE.

EVERYONE NEEDS TO REALIZE - THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE AT THIS POINT IS TO SPUR CONFIDENCE - SPUR SPENDING - SPUR THE ECONOMY. To take our G FUND or stop matching would be insane. Taking jobs would make a lot more sense because those jobs will essentially go unnoticed.

I am looking at this as a buying opportunity for up to 60% of my holdings. For me to buy, President Obama has to give me - and the market - confidence. I think that will occur.

No doubt I FULLY AGREE with that. Obama can not however turn things around overnight...and the worse is yet to come. Confidence is desperately wanting to make itself known so you have much to look forward to.

Good night all..


PLEASE DON'T SHUT UP........HONESTLY I'M ENJOYING IT

 

[Steadygain]

Heard this on the radio this moring driving to work - and thought it described YESTERDAY pretty well.

'Back on the Ghain Gang' - the Pretenders

A circumstance beyond our control, oh oh oh oh
The phone, the tv and the news of the world
Got in the house like a pigeon from hell, oh oh oh oh
Threw sand in our eyes and descended like flies
Put us back on the train
Oh, back on the chain gang

In my own little way it's saying: "I'm sorry for your loss and days like yesterday are hard to handle."

Now we're back - whoo..haa...Now we're back yeal...whoo....haa
Back on the Chain Gang..

NOW - for the Bright Side
Even though 350z and I (and probably others are in Retirement the rest of the month in G Fund) The MARKETS are up beautifully this morning and we can likely look forward to a week of stabilization and a total recovery of yesterday's losses along with a 2% gain - before we head down further. So turn those frowns into SMILES and shake off those fears and doubts and wait for the rewards.


This was a paid advertizement for Turning Frowns into Smiles

 

[Guest2]

Good Morning Steady,,,,,,,Good Stuff !!!!