Steadygain's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

The MARKETS are up beautifully this morning and we can likely look forward to a week of stabilization and a total recovery of yesterday's losses along with a 2% gain - before we head down further. So turn those frowns into SMILES and shake off those fears and doubts and wait for the rewards.


This was a paid advertizement for Turning Frowns into Smiles

It's early in the morning so help me out here. Does what you wrote above contain any bit of sarcasm?

 

[Steadygain]

Good Morning Steady,,,,,,,Good Stuff !!!!

Good Morning !! Squalebear

It's early in the morning so help me out here. Does what you wrote above contain any bit of sarcasm?

350z - I believe the general MB needs to hear a message like that and I honestly believe it's true.

Short Term Picture - Expect Markets to rebound to cover yesterday's losses and more than likely end with about a 2% Gain.

I honestly expect this to take place - the optimism pushing the Markets up are Natural and Expected. In terms of 'cycles' - yesterday's plunge would likely be countered with a gain (Pessimissim - Optimisim)

Long Term Picture - Recession started in the last quarter of 08 and what we're seeing now in terms of job losses...compainies suffering...homes foreclosing..is yet to PEAK. The worse is yet to come. So grab what gains you can and move to safety.

So NO - There was no sarcasm at all - I honestly think those in High Risk will recover some of their losses (in the short term)

 

[350zCommTech]

Good Morning !! Squalebear



350z - I believe the general MB needs to hear a message like that and I honestly believe it's true.

Short Term Picture - Expect Markets to rebound to cover yesterday's losses and more than likely end with about a 2% Gain.

I honestly expect this to take place - the optimism pushing the Markets up are Natural and Expected. In terms of 'cycles' - yesterday's plunge would likely be countered with a gain (Pessimissim - Optimisim)

Long Term Picture - Recession started in the last quarter of 08 and what we're seeing now in terms of job losses...compainies suffering...homes foreclosing..is yet to PEAK. The worse is yet to come. So grab what gains you can and move to safety.

So NO - There was no sarcasm at all - I honestly think those in High Risk will recover some of their losses (in the short term)

My bad.

Btw, the recession officially started in 07.

 

[Frixxxx]

350z - I believe the general MB needs to hear a message like that and I honestly believe it's true.

As always, optimism is welcome!



Short Term Picture - Expect Markets to rebound to cover yesterday's losses and more than likely end with about a 2% Gain.
No recovery expected here, I think any green will dissipate by the afternoon.

There is no support for the markets today but hope. Clear lines are showing another drop soon. I want to think everything will be alright, but it is time that needs to run the course. When the right amount of time has passed and the financial situations have been ironed out, only then can things truly go steadily on!

 

[Boghie]

Big Boy Market Movers Today...

Gotta agree with with 350z and Frixxxx.....

However, I don't want to use my remaining IFT for a backward trade (ie to the G or F).

There may be hope yet!!!

See this mornings change!!!

By the way 350z, I think all bailout to G trades are available after your two IFTs. Either CorePuncher or Coolhand led me toward that. You can see it in the IFT trades in the Automated Thangy... So, for me, my IFTs will generally be used to move assets into F/C/S/I or an L Fund. I will bail out in stages to G using my freebies...

 

[Steadygain]

There is no support for the markets today but hope. Clear lines are showing another drop soon. I want to think everything will be alright, but it is time that needs to run the course. When the right amount of time has passed and the financial situations have been ironed out, only then can things truly go steadily on!

I'd say we're on the same page.

The Markets don't need any underlying fundamentals for short term support. All they need are enough buyers to believe it's worth the risk - and with yesterday's sell off in combination with Obama - I'd say this month will end with a better finish (at least compared to yesterday).

Long Term - only time can allow the future hardships to transpire and "iron out" those elements holding the economy back. My guess is those who are sheilded with the greatest sense of safety will lose their sheild through a one - two punch. First punch will collapse and bankrupt the Industry - second punch will disolve the UAW and it's stronghold over that industry. Industry will then restart...

I'm thinking Markets will go to 600 before it's over (but who knows)

RIGHT ON - BOGHIE!!

 

[Steadygain]

Now we return to our program....

Days in Puffs - with Steadygain




Ist Puff...(today)
............Man this stuff is great. It's like we're in another world and everything feels wonderful.


Yeal - really dude - it's like all the bad vibes disappeared with only good things to come.



2nd Puff...(tomorrow)
......... Hey check it out - the Markets look like helium ballons floating in space

Huh, oh yeal - wow that's exactly how I feel



3rd Puff...(the next day)
Green everywhere dude - looks like the storm has finally passes us by and nothing but smooth sailing ahead

It's definately time to super chill man and lose ourselves in the drifting winds



And so our story continues...with each successive day the Puffs get better...and they become increasingly lost in a Dream World and for awhile everything is wonderful. Little do they realize the Markets are totally dependent on their Puffs and their supply will soon run out.



The moral to this story - enjoy things while the puffs continue and be grateful for all you have. Let the upward winds take you up to the sky - but grap the ballons when you get to the clouds because it's a long ways down.

 

[FogSailing]

It just makes you hope that somehow, someway, a concerted effort on the part of the global economic, financial, industrial, et. al interests will start to turn this thing around. One thing is for certain, there are a bunch of us that are risk averse right now..GL in your investing..

FS

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Big Boy Market Movers Today...

By the way 350z, I think all bailout to G trades are available after your two IFTs. Either CorePuncher or Coolhand led me toward that. You can see it in the IFT trades in the Automated Thangy... So, for me, my IFTs will generally be used to move assets into F/C/S/I or an L Fund. I will bail out in stages to G using my freebies...

Yes, I knew that. Unlimited moves to the G.

 

[Steadygain]

It just makes you hope that somehow, someway, a concerted effort on the part of the global economic, financial, industrial, et. al interests will start to turn this thing around. One thing is for certain, there are a bunch of us that are risk averse right now..GL in your investing..

FS

I have that hope - and I fully believe they're doing all they can to turn it around. WAY MORE MONEY was needed (and is currently needed) - a whole lot more and they honestly did not do enough at the pace they needed.

Rate Cuts and Increasing Money Supplies had always done the trick in the past - so it was probably way bigger than they realized. This actually is a Recession on a magnitude of the Great Depression and something that big does not turn around over night.

I personally believe their frantic efforts to hold the Markets up (or keep them from falling too fast) is the main factor involved with our current situation. More focus should have been to write off the toxic stuff and free the underlying burdens by drastically decreasing Home Loan Rates; Governments/Central Banks paying the debts off first - (and then go after Maadof and all the rest and collect what you can) - and keeping credit wide open. Also LET THE MARKETS FALL - AND FALL HARD - THEY CAN ONLY GO SO LOW BEFORE THEY HIT BOTTOM (and in IMHO they have to get there anyway).

We were close to 800 - and as I said earlier today - that is bound to rise back up in the next week (or two). The most significant fall is yet to come and that more than anything else is what "the Money is waiting for".

This year - at some point things will turn around. I think it will be summer (but it may be fall). When it does turn around I'd bet 2 weeks pay to $100 that we will fly way past 30% in the first year and things will continue going up fast.

 

[Birchtree]

"The several approaches we have taken here, all produce a broad range of plausible downside price levels well below the 750 that has recently been heralded as the bottom by many commentators. We recommend keeping powder dry until there is a clear pattern of upward price movements, and not just the index touching 800 or 750 as presumed bottoms. Consider the possibility of 600, 500 or even 400 if the world economy becomes as bad as the policy actions by government suggest."

I don't agree with the content of the article but I did like the graphs presented. Also, financial now make up only 11.7% of the SPX.

http://safehaven.com/article-12384.htm

 

[Steadygain]

NOT FOR WOMEN OR CHILDREN

THIS IS 2 BROTHERS SHOOTING THE S***

"The several approaches we have taken here, all produce a broad range of plausible downside price levels well below the 750 that has recently been heralded as the bottom by many commentators. We recommend keeping powder dry until there is a clear pattern of upward price movements, and not just the index touching 800 or 750 as presumed bottoms. Consider the possibility of 600, 500 or even 400 if the world economy becomes as bad as the policy actions by government suggest."

I don't agree with the content of the article but I did like the graphs presented. Also, financial now make up only 11.7% of the SPX.

http://safehaven.com/article-12384.htm

Birch,
I am totally floored by this POST

My strong unwavering brother - I honestly thought with today's upbeat 'bounce' and what now appears as 'Bull sentiment' by TODAY'S FEELERS - that you'd have said something more in line with get ready folks I smell the fuel and the rocket has taken off.

I've got to hand it to ya Birch - I have no doubt you know your s*** - but was pretty convinced that if anyone would say 'The Bull Market' has arrived it would be you.

Damn - you really deserve a Big HUG for this one. Lady, wv-girl, and Silverbird...get going.

I had not heard the 750 Mark - and feel it's way to close to where we are to be realistic. 600 has been the Mark I've pretty much counted on.

500 - I'll probably lose control - no doubt will be hard to hold back

400 - I'll definately fill my underwear on that :embarrest:

I think the Major Markets/Economies have been working a lot closer than anyone realizes. We are undoubtedly the s***heads that got us into this mess and deserve the worst punishment but our Economy is too much the focal point - so we lucked out because of that. I seriously doubt we go BELOW 600 - and if fact I'm still counting on a V Formation and may in all seriousness be even more BULLISH than you at this point. Damn if that don't beat all.

 

[Frixxxx]

"The several approaches we have taken here, all produce a broad range of plausible downside price levels well below the 750 that has recently been heralded as the bottom by many commentators. We recommend keeping powder dry until there is a clear pattern of upward price movements, and not just the index touching 800 or 750 as presumed bottoms. Consider the possibility of 600, 500 or even 400 if the world economy becomes as bad as the policy actions by government suggest."

I don't agree with the content of the article but I did like the graphs presented. Also, financial now make up only 11.7% of the SPX.

http://safehaven.com/article-12384.htm

Birch, you get points for that post.....Man, I learn more every day!

 

[CountryBoy]

Birch, you get points for that post.....Man, I learn more every day!

I could even understand the logic and charts of that article and sure opened my eyes to what the feds nationalizing the banks are doing to this country's stock. They've already killed the bank stock. Points from me also.

CB

 

[Steadygain]

the feds nationalizing the banks are doing...
CB

It would not be a permanent thing - much like Fannie Mae - with ultimate plans to sell it off to the private sector.

It's like the old prayer CB - Give us the strength to accept those things we can not change and the grace to deal with those things we can. (something like that....but hopefully you know what I mean)

 

[alevin]

I told Lady pm quite awhile back (well before we went down to 800) that I thought we were going there, and I also said I thought it highly possible we'd go down to 600, and that I was afraid to say even in writing pm to her how much lower I thought we could go, just based on inflection points in the spx chart since the early 70s (BigCharts). I didn't want to say those things out loud to the larger MB because I figured people would write me off as a total whack job (they can think me such for other reasons still :nuts:, but maybe not for talking about how low we could go still. :worried:.) Not now that Birch himself is bringing forward articles showing chart inflection points.

 

[CountryBoy]

It would not be a permanent thing - much like Fannie Mae - with ultimate plans to sell it off to the private sector.

It's like the old prayer CB - Give us the strength to accept those things we can not change and the grace to deal with those things we can. (something like that....but hopefully you know what I mean)

Steady,

I know what ya mean, and I'm not buying any financial stocks right now, so I have accepted it.

CB

 

[XL-entLady]

I told Lady pm quite awhile back (well before we went down to 800) that I thought we were going there, and I also said I thought it highly possible we'd go down to 600, and that I was afraid to say even in writing pm to her how much lower I thought we could go, just based on inflection points in the spx chart since the early 70s (BigCharts). ....

I remember that PM well, Alevin! :worried: I esteemed your technical analysis before, but as the things you stated in the PM to me began to unfold, my respect has increased exponentially! Folks, remember that old E.F. Hutton ad? Well, when Alevin speaks we'd better listen!

BTW, when Birch posts an article like that, are we at capitulation? :laugh:

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

I told Lady pm quite awhile back (well before we went down to 800) that I thought we were going there, and I also said I thought it highly possible we'd go down to 600, and that I was afraid to say even in writing pm to her how much lower I thought we could go, just based on inflection points in the spx chart since the early 70s (BigCharts). I didn't want to say those things out loud to the larger MB because I figured people would write me off as a total whack job (they can think me such for other reasons still :nuts:, but maybe not for talking about how low we could go still. :worried:.) Not now that Birch himself is bringing forward articles showing chart inflection points.

As Birch and Squalebear are my brothers...YOU ARE MY SISTER.

The very thought of anyone blowing you off is outrageous, it has to be the craziest thing I could think of.

Alevin,
Few have proven their smarts more than you (and I promise I am not saying that as flattery). You really know your stuff and I for one could learn a whole lot from you. NEVER - and I repeat - NEVER be afraid to make your views publicly known. Now I don't want to throw you in a deep depression BUT 87.34% of the MB are right now thinking "OMG...if I had seen that PM she sent to Lady...I've have stayed in G Fund". So sharing your VIEWS are essential to the integrity and safety of our TSP accounts. Uptrend is the one that made me realize 600 was the number to expect with a chart he put up maybe 5 months back. It really stuck out to me and somehow I knew it was right. The only other chart that had that kind of impact on me was one Tom put up showing the 'Housing Sector and the Market Diving to 800' If I had listened to that 'spirit' or whatever you'd call it...I would have prevented most of last year's loss.

Well thanks for the visit!

I'll PM you the final draft of our project and send it out tomorrow. If it works out as I believe it will - the savings to Mom and Dad will be many thousands, but the freedom and quality of life - the hope of something better - and the ability to once again believe WILL BE PRICELESS.

Take care my sweet sister,

Steady


Thanks Lady...see Alevin

 

[Steadygain]

Well everyone...I'm wearing out...

Can only multitask on so many things for so long...

The Markets are really wearing me out as well... I feel like we're slowing sinking...but we're going so slow it's like we're just stuck and drifting aimlessly with nothing to do.

Well - we'll hope something happens soon - one way or the other