Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Congratulations Steady 8.88 percent for the month, incredible.

Thank you very much !!

I may have bailed too early - but feel the overwhelming Members have a much better sense of Massive Selling to come.

By the end of the day - hopefully things will pick up and I'll break even. NOW - the fear of a quick downturn is over riding my confidence of another week or two of strong gains.

That's the advantage of this MB !
I'm able to ignore the general comments when going in - but after awhile I believe it's much better to heed the warnings and I'm very content with the GAIN this wave provided.

Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but if we break above the 958 range today you could be leaving alot on the table. That being said I would probably do the same thing in your position.
There are alot of things that can change the current environment:
1. Anyone from the current leadership can have a press conference and bring it down.
2. Earnings data has been quietly surprising, should continue but there are no guarantees.
3. The worlds oil producing nations have been licking their wounds for several months now, that needs to continue for major players to continue to recover no matter how small.

Congrats Steady, you made a great recovery. I want to be just like you when I grow up

My initial - and largely ongoing - thought was this WAVE would carry through to early next week. So it's possible I made a mistake.

ATC Jeff has always been someone I looked up to - and him going 100% G; along with so many others giving SOLID and SUSTAINED warnings makes me feel like enough is enough.

Careful what you wish for - being just like me :worried::nuts: humm are you willing to abandon everything you've been grounded in believing and be a totally free spirit - ready to find, experience, and fully take in and enjoy ALL THAT LIFE OFFERS... humm are ya???? Are ya willing to let everything go - give up all you have - in hopes of finding something better say with your life centered entirely on one person in a totally strange land with a language you don't know??

If you ever wind up being just like me - you'll either find the ultimate happiness possible or incredible empty disappointment.

I believe it was the summer of '63 when I had a job mowing and trimming head stones in our local town cemetry. Two of us kids had the job and it took two full weeks to go end to end. Anyway, I didn't have transportation so I waited for my ride in a local pizza restaurant drinking a sassperella and listening to Nat King Cole on the juke box sing "Ramblin Rose". The song would cost $0.25 - the same cost for a pack of cigs. "Why you ramble no one knows".

I got $100 dollars for a summer's worth of mowing, pulling weeds, trimming ....

Now my 16 year old daughter is making way more than that in her first week of work.

Ahhh - those were the days Birch my buddy. I got cigs for .27 cents and when they went to $.30 I'm like OMG what's the world coming to. When they got to $.50 I had a fit and threatened to quit and I did eventually - YEARS LATER.

I 'ramble' because it's in my blood - totally wired to take risks - explore - expand - enjoy...

 

[Steadygain]

Arrrrrrrgg Mates

It looks like I abandoned ship just in time - as the Tide is rising and little to no damage was done


Arrrrrgg I hope I don't miss another 8% you blooming cattle wags - ya put the fear in me

 

[WorkFE]

Either way Steady I would not ever classify that as a MISTAKE. There are not many who are not true B&H that would have held on that long. What If's and Hindsight are not stratedgies. You did great, I'm jealous:nuts:

 

[Frixxxx]

...I got cigs for .27 cents and when they went to $.30 I'm like OMG what's the world coming to. When they got to $.50 I had a fit and threatened to quit and I did eventually - YEARS LATER.

I quit after 27 years....yes I was 14 when I "regularly" smoked......April 4th of this year (my wife never thought I'd quit).......now I'm trying to figure out what to do with the 20lbs of quitters remorse.

P90X baby......hahahaha.....I'll be back soon....

For Ella: Nina Says Woof! (I guess Ella will know what that means:nuts

 

[Guest2]

I started smoking in 1974. On May 10th, 2009, I quit for the 5th time.
Only this time, was the last time. I haven't had the desire to pick one
up for 2 months and 11 days. Maybe the 14mg patch is helping. The
reality of my Heart Disease is extremely convincing too ! I've always
thought it would be the Lung Cancer that would catch up to me. The
money aspect killed our budget, but the addiction dictated ! I too
remember $0.25 per pack and $1.00 at the Atlantic City Casino's.
People are spending $7.00 of more per pack today. That $70.00 per
carton. My God, the money I could have saved ! My God, the amount
of extra time with my family, that I gave up !

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks guys -- much appreciated.

Honestly -- you have no clue

Am frazzeled through and through - today's been very hectic..

... then wondering about the Markets ....

... second guessing yourself over and over

ANYWAY - I SINCERELY APPRECIATE YOUR POSTS

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for the opportunity. Today was the internal correction and tomorrow she opens up.

 

[Steadygain]

Good Morning everyone

I've got a whole lot to catch up on ... so am just making the spot.

Me - 16
S - 24
I - 26
C - 67
Fred - 70
Tom - 82
F - 109
G - 137
Ebb - 172

Well I would agree with Malyla - Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince was great. The ending is BAD only because it leaves you hanging and at that movement you wish you could walk next store and see the conclusion.

So Malyla and I have been working with the Producers and All to have the ending chaged slightly. We're thinkning of a very high tower overlooking a beautiful scene. We'd have it decorated up with sheer colorful frabrics that are easily seen through. This would create an appearance of enchantment and romanace. Now it's just Harry and this beautiful lady full of grace and beauty. Chemistry is sparking and coming to life. Huge beautiful birds of love that are bigger than eagles begin flying in the sky as Harry and his beautiful girl began Floating to each other. I would have their clothes slowly dissapear (magically) as they join in the center of the room with their Chemistry getting brighter and brighter. Here the cameras would fade back past one colorfuly sheer (transparent like sheet) after another until they join in the middle.

Linger on that - show the birds flying gracefully together and fade out.

Now that ending would be a thousand times better. Still the movie from beginning to end was well worth going to. Try to sit close enough and in the middle where you can actually become drawn into the movie. It starts with fast movements between buildings and various places and it is very much a 3D experience.

Well I hope all is going well

 

[Birchtree]

Let's watch the "Tokyo Drift" in the next 8 trading days.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Good Morning everyone

I've got a whole lot to catch up on ... so am just making the spot.

Me - 16
S - 24
I - 26
C - 67
Fred - 70
Tom - 82
F - 109
G - 137
Ebb - 172

Well I would agree with Malyla - Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince was great. The ending is BAD only because it leaves you hanging and at that movement you wish you could walk next store and see the conclusion.

So Malyla and I have been working with the Producers and All to have the ending chaged slightly. We're thinkning of a very high tower overlooking a beautiful scene. We'd have it decorated up with sheer colorful frabrics that are easily seen through. This would create an appearance of enchantment and romanace. Now it's just Harry and this beautiful lady full of grace and beauty. Chemistry is sparking and coming to life. Huge beautiful birds of love that are bigger than eagles begin flying in the sky as Harry and his beautiful girl began Floating to each other. I would have their clothes slowly dissapear (magically) as they join in the center of the room with their Chemistry getting brighter and brighter. Here the cameras would fade back past one colorfuly sheer (transparent like sheet) after another until they join in the middle.

Linger on that - show the birds flying gracefully together and fade out.

Now that ending would be a thousand times better. Still the movie from beginning to end was well worth going to. Try to sit close enough and in the middle where you can actually become drawn into the movie. It starts with fast movements between buildings and various places and it is very much a 3D experience.

Well I hope all is going well

Having read all of the Harry Potter books, I was disappointed that the movie producers cut so many scenes from the book and added scenes unnecessarily. That said, the movie was an entertaining mix of drama and humor, with a hint of young love.

Personally, I'd love it if they did a "Band of Brothers" style series with the Harry Potter books. They could then take the time to mirror the books and not add so much "filler" material.

 

[Frixxxx]

Having read all of the Harry Potter books, I was disappointed that the movie producers cut so many scenes from the book and added scenes unnecessarily. That said, the movie was an entertaining mix of drama and humor, with a hint of young love.

Personally, I'd love it if they did a "Band of Brothers" style series with the Harry Potter books. They could then take the time to mirror the books and not add so much "filler" material.

I agree, there was A LOT left out to keep it under three hours. But, the only saving grace is that I will be glad to see all the "bonus scenes" in the comfort of my home when the DVD comes out....I'm glad that they have kept the cast and worked to hold true to the storyline, but my imagination will never be over written. In my mind, they will be forever, a part of me as when I first read the books. Just like Tolkien's hobbits will always be short and squatty, and Herbert's Fremen will always look one way on the screen, but totally different in my mind.

 

[Steadygain]

Let's watch the "Tokyo Drift" in the next 8 trading days.

Let's watch 'GI Joe - Cobra' that starts in 08/09.

It starts exactly as 'The real thing we heard over and over. Our Missions will never be acknowledged or in the papers or media; these operations are on too high a magnitude and too important to go wrong - that's why we're sending you....

It looks like a GREAT MOVIE

Having read all of the Harry Potter books, I was disappointed that the movie producers cut so many scenes from the book and added scenes unnecessarily. That said, the movie was an entertaining mix of drama and humor, with a hint of young love.

Personally, I'd love it if they did a "Band of Brothers" style series with the Harry Potter books. They could then take the time to mirror the books and not add so much "filler" material.

I've noted that with almost any book I've read ....

So decided to wait until the movies are over to read the books

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

You missed the point I was trying to gently deliver without being overly aggressive. The drift will be downward in rank as the risk takers move on up.

 

[sugarandspice]

Having read all of the Harry Potter books, I was disappointed that the movie producers cut so many scenes from the book and added scenes unnecessarily. That said, the movie was an entertaining mix of drama and humor, with a hint of young love.

Personally, I'd love it if they did a "Band of Brothers" style series with the Harry Potter books. They could then take the time to mirror the books and not add so much "filler" material.

Did they at least leave in the drunk scene with Hagrid ,Slughorn and Harry?

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

I've noted that with almost any book I've read ....

So decided to wait until the movies are over to read the books

I started reading these books to my kids in an effort to get them interested in reading. They quickly lost interest, but I got hooked! Once you start reading them, you won't be able to put them down.

I have even considered writing a book about how American witches and wizards learn their craft. I would pay homage to JK Rowling's creation, but make it uniquely American. I should put my thoughts to paper, but so far it is just an idea that I play with in my mind.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,

You missed the point I was trying to gently deliver without being overly aggressive. The drift will be downward in rank as the risk takers move on up.

The slashing of jobs will contnue over the months ahead and are now projected to end in 2011 - not 2010.

A 'jobless recovery' I can deal with 'as long as I'm working'; but much of what is sparking this lovely sentiment is missing other features that are equally important.

We will have WAVES in the 9 to 13% range - with Marked Volitility ongoing for at least another year. At this point I'm thinking Spring of 2010 will mark 'a new beginning' but time will tell.

If the 'Risk Takers' move up - they will equally move down. To win in this Climate you either follow my example of grabbing gains and locking them in until the next gain; or follow your example of DCAing and stay in High Risk throughout.

Most don't consider this - as with Cayman's example.

Birch starts out with 10K shares of C and I
Markets go down and he keeps buying and buying - getting many shares much cheaper than they've been in years.

He ends with 20K shares of C and I - and sells the whole collection he's acquired over many years. DCAing is one of the most superiour Investment Plans possible but you have to invest in something SOLID like the S&P 500 and keep it going for many years.

So Birch - you and I are in the exact same boat. I don't care where I am on the AT from one day to another. What I care about, and the only thing I care about - is that my investments are growing and I am minizing any loss. I'm now about $10 K from the orginal TARGET - so will now strive to get the additional $16 K I contribitued last year.

 

[Birchtree]

History tells us that unemployment is a laggiing indicator and that the market often rallies ahead of that improvement. First comes earnings then the economy and finally employment.

 

[Frixxxx]

History tells us that unemployment is a laggiing indicator and that the market often rallies ahead of that improvement. First comes earnings then the economy and finally employment.

You are right to a flaw:

Personnel cuts are helping bottom lines to show green. Lower employee costs, insurance, unemployment insurance...all affect the bottom line. Companies aren't making money right now,,,,they are just not hemorrhaging it as fast.

I audited companies in a past life. I saw first hand that companies would get the itch to meet numbers and "restructure" employee costs by furloughing and laying-off employees. You can easily get $200K by releasing 3 or 4 employees and all the costs associated with them.

Of course, the argument is cyclical, but we all see the shell game right now......sustaining a business by reducing costs is not always the answer.

 

[WorkFE]

Business only has so many options when the economy slows to a crawl.
1. Expand- Beg, Borrow or steal but expand. You'll get your investment back when the economy improves.

2. Cut cost- Anyway you can and only keep the pieces you need to survive. People may not like it but it has been a proven stratedgy over and over. Rehire when the economy improves.

3. Stand pat- this only works for short downturns and only for small companies or ones with deep pockets.

There are some in this country who are suffering in this economy and I feel for them. I can only hope that it starts to improve in the next 12 months however a company cannot and should not sacrifice their survival. Bonuses is a different can of worms.

 

[amoeba]

This is it. The top of the market. This has been a wierd couple of months....I think the P/E for the S&P went from 10 to 30. Although the AAPL earnings were good, they look baked in; EBAY's miss and 29% year-year revenue decline were not so promising, and a broader indicator than the touch-screen cellphone fad.

A 9% wave? So we are talking 90 points? Something like 860 on the S&P? So far, the bottoms have been sharp - 795, 660, and, most recently 879 - and the "wavelength" has been variable; a week to months. We shall see what comes next.