Steadygain's Account Talk

An avalanche of cash is set to slide....once this glacier of assets, frozen in cash equivalents, starts to thaw we may see a flood of liquidity unlike anything ever seen before - and a real spike in value of certain asset classes. Don't blink because we are going straight up to SPX 1300 - they call it the principle of symmetry. Be in to win. And I'm sure glad the 6 year Kress cycle is on my side. The three nearest major Kress cycles are now in harmony on the upside. This next rally leg may beat the first leg of 40% - won't that be wild. Guess what's coming - euphoria and hope will cause everyone to jump on the rocket and the sky is the limit.
 
Steadygain:

It is human nature, but interesting how human emotion swings up and down in just a few trading days (that is why the VIX is important to study because it is a collective human emotion barometer).

Uptrend,
Honestly I appreciate you taking the time to tell me about the VIX, but like I said 'I go the way of Nature'.

What WV-girl talked about is to me the ultimte way to go and that is how I always do it. When I traveled through Germany,, Austria, Switzerland, Italy for instance we rented a nice sized car and took the most beautiful 'Scenic Route' imaginable. The sights we enjoyed and most of the most beautiful places we passed through were off the beaten road.

When I went to MN and Canada this summer it was the same thing. We find NOTHING - ABSOLUTELY NOTING BEATS NATURE. So for me it is 'The Natural Experience' that is the ultimate one. I don't think many can relate to what WV-girl and I are talking about on the level and to the extent that we are expressing but I would say she is one of the few that could undoubted relate to my ultimate dream of finding Ultra Completion and incorporating that experience with the magnetic and awe inspiring sensation of taking in Lake Superior at the same time.

So Uptrend - as strange as it may sound I don't care about the VIX and all the other things that most get wrapped up in - because for me it is gauging everything with a sense of nature, with gut feelings and emotion.

I have never surfed before - but the timing of this last Rally was like riding the most perfect wave and going from 3% to 10% in one quick ride. I could sense it before I got on the board and Nature alone is what guided me. SO YES - I AM VERY EMOTIONAL AND WHEN IT'S GOOD I TRY TO STRETCH IT OUT AND LET THAT HAPPINESS AND JOY FLOW EVERYWHERE.

For me it's much more that I finally made the 10% Mark; and if the Markets crash down to the bottom - well I can handle that and I'll simply wait for the next rally. But I don't care what the others think because if I listened to them I never would have stayed in. So it's possible I will make 18% - BUT I DO NOT COUNT ON IT NEXT WEEK. Either way I'm cool with whatever happens and will make any adjustments I feel work best for me.

Anyway, it is nice to be excited for a big gainer or a winning trade, but don't paint the sky too rosy.

The sky is way more 'rosy' that I could ever paint it. Uptrend I am way more into seeing Squalebear get better, hearing Alevie talk about difficult situations and see how Birch and I respond, witness how some guy I never heard of tear Tom down and see how others respond, listen to Malyla share about the movie I will now watch for sure, and probably more than anything else hear how WV-girl describes her love of nature and soaking things in; Lady talking about the Hoo doos; Karcrazy talking about Lyric; Fogsailing and WINDHUNTER sharing about music. All these things mean way more to me that how the Markets move in any given week. The Markets are simply a week to week type of thing and I'm just as content to stay in G as be fully invested. But it is way more the other things I'm talking about that make this place to thrilling to me

So when I catch a 'good wave' then I'll let it fly and play it to the Max because they are rare and wonderful. But the wave can only last so long and when it ends - I'm cool with that.

The head and shoulder pattern on the charts are still intact, and until it is taken out, it points to trouble ahead. I really don't see more upside next week, because of overhead resistance. Expectations will increase for earnings next quarter, while unemployment is still falling. We may have a seasonal upswing in housing starts, but I doubt if it is sustainable. Remember the market gives and the market takes away - probably with a Goldman Sachs trading program.

I appreciate your input and you thoughts are largely reflected by many others. You guys (and gals) are way smarter than me and I have no doubt you know a thousand times more than I could even imagine about financial - economic stuff. I don't even know what the VIX is. But somehow I do have a sense for when the Markets are going UP or DOWN and in this case did not want to get out too early. Many years I did better than 30% and often did way better than C,S, or I - so I enjoy my style because it works for me.

Down the road - when I'm doing what WV-girl dreams of doing and I'll going here and there and soaking everything in then I'll give basically everything over to Birch and let him manage it - because he doesn't just go on emotion and feeling but very much depends on well thought out plans involving many factors.

Well it's very rare I have the opportunity to get on-line on the weekend so this was wonderful.

Have a great weekend everyone. WV-girl it's great to see ya back.
 
There have been only three times in history when the VIX was trending in the same direction as the SPX: that would be Nov. 27th, 2002, June 1st this year and last Wednesday. Every previous time this has happened the market has settled back a little - but I don't believe it will be the case this time around. The VIX was going up Wednesday because of option traders covering their call options not because of any great fear of the future. Yesterday the VIX actually got as low as 23.88 before reversing some back over 24. When it drops below 20 even I may get nervous because then everyone will be piling into the bull pen.
 
If we have another good week you'll move up the tracker with no resistance. There are 10 lily padders in front of you and they will faulter unless they dig down and find courage. Let's hope for an 8 billion share day with a contingent blast off. 300 points would do me just fine. So many technical analysts still seem to think the H&S pattern is still in play - now if we get past SPX of 956 there is no over head resistance - only gaps to fill.
 
Steadygain's Instincts...

Steady,

Your instincts in this market have been pretty good so far...

I think you and I see the same forces at work. I definitely feel that the vast majority of gains we can expect over the next four years will be made in the next four weeks or four months. After that, a flat line Carter Malaise Economy with boomlettes and bomblettes. Not tradable under TSP limitations.

So, tomorrow my chips are 'all in'...

And, they will be 'all in' till there is a correction...

October, November, and March made me gun shy. Never before have I headed to the Lilly Pad because of a weekly 7% decline in the stock market. But on July 10th I headed back (in part). Missed 40% of last week's rally as a result. Oh well:embarrest:
 
If we have another good week you'll move up the tracker with no resistance. There are 10 lily padders in front of you and they will faulter unless they dig down and find courage. Let's hope for an 8 billion share day with a contingent blast off. 300 points would do me just fine. So many technical analysts still seem to think the H&S pattern is still in play - now if we get past SPX of 956 there is no over head resistance - only gaps to fill.

Thanks Birch !
Once I join WINDHUNTER - that's my last big celebration because I don't think the rest of us know each other. I'm OK until I hit 20% or better - at which point it will be more awkward than 'victorious' and beyond 30% I'll probably beg Tom to take me off the AT.

For now I'm convinced, as I said from the start, that the Mystic Chart Wizzards will be shouting 'doom and gloom' from the get go but none of that means anything to me because I felt the wave and nothing was about to stop it.

I'm kind of hoping for a really bad day today - since Boogie is getting in - and this way the BULL can shake the timid loose. Until I sense 'this WAVE' has ended I'm staying where I am.

BTW I owe you and Lady a huge thanks. Lady, our precious beautiful genius, is the one who introduced me to Adam Hamilton. After doing some research on him I shifted one of my Private Accounts to High Risk. Everything had been in SAFETY for at least 1 1/2 years and growing at 0.04%. Over the weekend I got the 2nd Q Statement showing the graft. Up until 3/09 it's barely moving and then Thanks to you TWO it's going way up.

I'm shifting everything to International today and will probably leave it there until 5/2010 - at which time the money on the side lines will likely pile in the US Markets.
Steady,

Your instincts in this market have been pretty good so far...

I think you and I see the same forces at work. I definitely feel that the vast majority of gains we can expect over the next four years will be made in the next four weeks or four months. After that, a flat line Carter Malaise Economy with boomlettes and bomblettes. Not tradable under TSP limitations.

So, tomorrow my chips are 'all in'...

And, they will be 'all in' till there is a correction...

October, November, and March made me gun shy. Never before have I headed to the Lilly Pad because of a weekly 7% decline in the stock market. But on July 10th I headed back (in part). Missed 40% of last week's rally as a result. Oh well:embarrest:

We are still in a BS Market - and that's the most important thing to know at this point. Once foreclosures and job cuts finally bottom out next Spring - we will return to a more Standard Market that will be much easier to guage by Standard Indicators.

At this point it is way more HOPE versus FEAR; and the general investor 'mindset' ruling this age. Probably even more importantly are THE CYCLES which I fully believe in. These Cycles are beyond human understanding and all features by which the economy is predicted (such as the VIX). They are a Natural Occurance - the Way of Nature and we either accept them and ride with them AND WIN or we reject them and somehow 'Gain' despited them.

In my assessment - which extends throughout the centuries and is based on Individuals that have a high degree of creditable evidence - Cycles should the most important aspect that guides us into High Risk and equally into SAFETY.

Well I need to run

Have a great day everyone
 
Once I join WINDHUNTER - that's my last big celebration because I don't think the rest of us know each other.


Okay Steady, I'm in a conservative mode having already made my goal for the year of 12%(and this was my goal before 12% came on the scene )
Not that I won't try and hit 20% but looking for a better entry point. Don't want to chase now.

You've done well in your decision to go all in and I hope you catch me. I'm looking for a 1-3 day move and I'm back out again.

Good Luck! But be careful, we're still in a very dangerous market. IMHO
 
Ahhh .... That's the Way

uh huh .... uh huh .. I LIKE IT

un huh.... un huh

OK - now picture Lady and Alevie moon dancing to this tune ...

then the ballons start flying up in the air and all of us are dancing.;)

The 'real excitement' is not so much winning - but having the Markets coincide with 'your gut'

My gut now feels we've been going low enough and despite all the garbage we're due for an 'upturn' however how brief that may be.

I may jump off the board fairly soon :laugh::nuts:

For those who missed it - this is pretty much how it started

30% C/40%S/30%I - COB Today

When entering my IFT... this is the song that filled me


Moon Rivvvvver

wider than the Nile

I'm folllllowing you in style


I take that as a 'very good sign' - so we'll see

Daily Reminders:
You have to be in - TO WIN
Buy on Weakness and Sell on Strength

and hope someday you simply luck out

Whenever you have the opportunity to sense a BIG WAVE and you get on the BOARD just as it's forming - it's wonderful.

I believe in Miricles Miricles Miricles

Where ya from ?? You sexy thing SEXY THING

Bom ..bom ....bom...bom.....bom....bom

YEAHHHHHHHH

I BELIEVE IN MIRICLES
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>MIRICLES
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>MIRICLES
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>MIRICLES

This is where I kick in with Jimi Hendrix guitar and we all get lost for a few minutes



And that's how to play the BS Markets my friends

Forget the charts and the moving averages and all 'logical things'
and 'Flow with the BS' :D

By this time I am riding the Crest - and the thrill is undeniable

Good Morning ny good friends

I feel great this morning and have a good feeling for the week


So on purely a 'hunch' or 'gut' level - this should be a 3% or better

3% or better - how about more than DOUBLE THAT

I'll call today's action 'Fluffing the Pillow'


Nay sayers please tell me a story as I lay back in comfort.

With every wave you've got a lot on the sidelines shouting 810 and all kinds of stuff. Mix it all together and make cookies out of it.

Wow ! Talk about Herd mentality

The AT is loaded with some higher ranks fleeing to G Fund.

I could easily wind up wishing I'd fled to G Fund but with all the weakness and substantial correction that's already been in play I still feel that there is plenty of room to go up.


At this point the upward momentum has barely started (if we are to have an upward momentum) - so time will tell. I still think it's a non logical/non sensible Market at play which is better than the term I normally give it.

So with over 2 weeks to go before the end of the month I'll hope for the best.

Well the Experts came out in full force and did everything possible to warm me of the impending doom. But hey - I've got to do my own thing and be content with that.


At this Point F is going UP - and C,S,I are taking a mild break. I still do not see 'The Major SELL OFF' everyone is saying is 'in the stars and in the charts and all the other stuff'.

Thought about LOCKING IN GAINS TODAY - but feel instead of being at the Brink of one of the Biggest Sell Offs in history (as it seems most people expect) we will probably get a few more nice gains before it's through.

Seize the Moment my friends. Life is short and we have but ONE opportunity each month to do something worthwhile. Nothing at this point is ALARMING to me. So I move on to grab the ring.
 
Once I join WINDHUNTER - that's my last big celebration because I don't think the rest of us know each other.


Okay Steady, I'm in a conservative mode having already made my goal for the year of 12%(and this was my goal before 12% came on the scene )
Not that I won't try and hit 20% but looking for a better entry point. Don't want to chase now.

You've done well in your decision to go all in and I hope you catch me. I'm looking for a 1-3 day move and I'm back out again.

Good Luck! But be careful, we're still in a very dangerous market. IMHO

Thanks WINDHUNTER !!

I'm just rambling on and on - taking a bunch of sheeet (as Birch says)

In all sincereity I am very much like you and Uptrend - in that I would a thousand times rather LOCK IN the GAINS and stay ahead than look like an idiot and lose a huge amount.

I've already decided to Sell Off within the next few days because at this point I'm thrilled with 10% or better. I do feel 20% is pretty much a GIVEN for you, CP, Uptrend, 350z, and me by the end of the year.
 
If you jump the tugboat will pick up steam.

I'm not 'jumping' until I'm good and ready Birch.

The FIRST real wave we had took only those who 'held on' to the highest rewards. That was a very important lesson and you either learn to play the game or lose out altogether.

I see this as the SECOND WAVE - and I've said from the very 'get go' that following a 4 week correction - this wave should bring in Significant RESULTS.

I realize 7% is nice Birch - but that's nothing compared to what the end result should bring. So I'm staying for awhile yet and will have to try to ignore the 'More Informed'

"Cheap Commodities" by Adam Hamilton

http://safehaven.com/article-13934.htm

At this point I'm leaning more towards International - at least with the stuff outside of TSP. Commodities would be an excellent choice as well.

Thanks Birch
 
Hey ya'll - I hope I'm not driving ya crazy ....

honestly ;)

BUT it is very rare I catch a WAVE like this one and so I'm trying to soak it in and take it for everything it has.

I appreciate the Head & Shoulders review - and I am learning a whole lot from everyone - but for now I'd rather think of Head & Shoulders as a shampoo and just fly with the flow.

Have a great night everyone !!

Lady, it's really good having you with us again.
 
Hey ya'll - I hope I'm not driving ya crazy ....

honestly ;)

BUT it is very rare I catch a WAVE like this one and so I'm trying to soak it in and take it for everything it has.

I appreciate the Head & Shoulders review - and I am learning a whole lot from everyone - but for now I'd rather think of Head & Shoulders as a shampoo and just fly with the flow.

Have a great night everyone !!

Lady, it's really good having you with us again.


Steady,

You by far have the best return so far in July....congrats and continued good luck. Maybe you will get a 15% month :)
 
Hey ya'll - I hope I'm not driving ya crazy ....

honestly ;)

BUT it is very rare I catch a WAVE like this one and so I'm trying to soak it in and take it for everything it has.

I appreciate the Head & Shoulders review - and I am learning a whole lot from everyone - but for now I'd rather think of Head & Shoulders as a shampoo and just fly with the flow.

Have a great night everyone !!

Lady, it's really good having you with us again.

Congrats, Steady! You have moved up in the tracker incredibly fast this month. Fantastic job in a tough market! Soak it all in!
 
Congrats, Steady! You have moved up in the tracker incredibly fast this month. Fantastic job in a tough market! Soak it all in!

Wow that is soooo cool to get a visit from you.

I thought about you this morning as I was singing a song to myself:

Ramblin' Rose

Ramblin' Rose (that me because I'm Ramblin' and smelling like a rose)

Ramblin' Rose, where he goes .... no one knows

Anyway - that instantly took me into another world where I realized that 'things smell better up here in the 12% range'

Which made me think of YOU - Contarian Jeff - and how much better things must smell up there. Tractor broke the 30% mark... man it's probably like you're a giant smelling sense at that level.

Well sometimes you just 'KNOW IT' regardless of what the VIX, Head and Shoulders or anything else says. It's simply a wave that's forming and you know it's going somewhere worthwhile.


Gumby - THANK YOU - That's very kind. At this point the wave continues with good strength so I'm expecting 18% Minimum and 25% Maximum.... but time will tell.
 
I believe it was the summer of '63 when I had a job mowing and trimming head stones in our local town cemetry. Two of us kids had the job and it took two full weeks to go end to end. Anyway, I didn't have transportation so I waited for my ride in a local pizza restaurant drinking a sassperella and listening to Nat King Cole on the juke box sing "Ramblin Rose". The song would cost $0.25 - the same cost for a pack of cigs. "Why you ramble no one knows".
 
A Good WAVE could easily give 18 to 25% so you need to break the 'old habit' of grabbing 2 or 5% and Bailing.


With limited IFTs - the key at this point is grab the WAVE early and ride it out.

The quote above is from me - not Birch


I am NOW second guessing myself and thinking 18 to 25% is double the REAL VALUE

Therefore I see the Present WAVES in the 9 to 12% Range

ATC Jeff got my attention and I'll likely go 100% G @ COB
 
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Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but if we break above the 958 range today you could be leaving alot on the table. That being said I would probably do the same thing in your position.
There are alot of things that can change the current environment:
1. Anyone from the current leadership can have a press conference and bring it down.
2. Earnings data has been quietly surprising, should continue but there are no guarantees.
3. The worlds oil producing nations have been licking their wounds for several months now, that needs to continue for major players to continue to recover no matter how small.

Congrats Steady, you made a great recovery. I want to be just like you when I grow up:D
 
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