Steadygain's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Of course it's possible I'll pee my pants in a few days and BAIL

Thats acceptable Steady. As long as the Market doesn't call for us to :nuts:
crap ourselves. "Wish'n and a Hope'n" (Dionne Warwick reference) has been my
motto as of late. It's time for "Oh what a feel'n - When were dance'n on
the ceiling" (Lionel Richie reference)

 

[Steadygain]

Ya see Birch - we need to take note of what happened in 3/09 and recognize these events are going to occur whether we like it or not. FEAR will have someone jump out at the first 'real gain'. I like to go with the odds and the overall picture. So if I exit at 10 or 15% it's only because I held on.

The question is can you yet feel the anticipation of a better economic future on the horizon. If you can you must remember there is $12 trillion at your back and this money will crush anyone that steps outside the flow. SPX 1300 could come very quickly. It's time to show my entrepreneurial spirit and offer piles of sweet smelling superlative bull manure for sale. That Ferdinand is a jewel. And last but not least, China's manufacturing survey suggests its recovery is sustainable.

Thats acceptable Steady. As long as the Market doesn't call for us to :nuts: crap ourselves. "Wish'n and a Hope'n" (Dionne Warwick reference) has been my motto as of late. It's time for "Oh what a feel'n - When were dance'n on the ceiling" (Lionel Richie reference)

Well Good Morning 'little brother'
Actually I threw that last comment in just to throw the others off.

The truth is I see things exactly as Birch does at this point in time. Patience is the way to go - and FEAR will keep the others from reaping in the rewards.

It's strange because I'm playing '3 Stoges Style' against my long standing buddies Uptrend (Curly), 350z (Moe), and Corepuncher (Larry)

When I'm at the Table I play to win and will make comments like the one you responded to in order to throw others off. Since Curly and Moe have left the Table I should be OK. Larry will likely not jump in when the Markets are soaring - so beating him is my ultimate goal for now.

So ignoring everything esle (especially the Nay Sayers with their charts, moving averages, and bollinger bands...) and focusing only on this period of history - I'd say their is a High Chance that over the next 2 weeks the Markets will make Substantial Gains.

I'm IN TO WIN - At this point a 'down day' is simply packing the dirt.

 

[Steadygain]

Why are things looking so Gooood

Because it's a BS Market - and once you've become accustomed to this IT'S A WONDERFUL THING.

Take the first - and most significant rally this year - in 3/09
1. News was terrible and pretty much got worse
2. All Major Players bailed early - and here I don't mean to down play the B&Hers - but the Major Players from my perspective are the ones with a tendency to Time the Markets.

And what happened ????? It soared and kept soaring with no end in sight for month after month.

Now I could be wrong - and if I am that's cool cause whatever happens I'll deal with it. But if I'm right then all things will be ignored and the Markets will 'do their thing' one more time.

This is a RARE EVENT for me to not 'Lock in Gains' - but deep down I honestly believe Staying IN is the most winning strategy.

Please feel free to post any comments you want - especially Uptrend, 350z, and Corepuncher - over the next week or so as whatever happens I've got it coming :worried: but as I'm climbing the ladder to success I'm bound to say something like:

There's a road up ahead and I'm coming (the road to success)
just as fast as my feet can fly
Come away - come away if you're coming
Leave the Sinking Ships behind

Come on 'The Rising WIND'
We're going up around the bend - Yeah

You can find the perpetual motion (as one rise leads to the next)


OK ~~~ whew!
I'm cool now. BTW - I got a new office that's at least 4 times bigger than my old one. Has a TV, Refridge, and all kinds of stuff so I'm kind of 'high' anyway - even without the Rally.

 

[WorkFE]

Steady,
letting it ride is without question is the least taxing strategy for sure. At some point I'll have to either bite the bullet and jump in on the upswing or get lucky and get a better buy in price. Either way when I jump back in it is for the long road to recovery. At least thats what I'm telling myself.:nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,
letting it ride is without question is the least taxing strategy for sure. At some point I'll have to either bite the bullet and jump in on the upswing or get lucky and get a better buy in price. Either way when I jump back in it is for the long road to recovery. At least thats what I'm telling myself.:nuts:

Thanks man !

When you do jump in we should go in business together selling Birchtree Juice to everyone else

 

[WorkFE]

I can't afford what BT sells but I here the Chinese are marketing a knock off thats affordable.

 

[Steadygain]

Man something smells !


Sniff sniff sniff ....



It's either MONEY or ROCKET FUEL ...

hard to tell which one

 

[WorkFE]

Wrong end of this tug of war, I need to right this ship

 

[Steadygain]

I'm simply marking the spot - to compare in June

But now am at a NEW HIGH and will mark the spot again

27 - with an 89 spread to G Fund (S Fund passed me and is 20)


Later everyone - and as usual don't make too much out of the day to day - we'll see how things pan out in another 5 weeks.

Am now more into Playing against Curly, Moe, and Larry

I'm 21, Moe is 25 and Curly is 50
Larry is still ahead at 14

BTW - I mention them only because I've known them for so long and know by the end of 12/09 all of them could easily be ahead of me. So it's just a game and nothing more.

Not that the rest of the MB doesn't count - I just don't know you well enough to compete against you and don't want any hard feelings.

S - 27
I - 32
C- 79
F- 110
G- 125

Focusing only on 'The Game' - I feel like an ice skater that just took a flying leap up in the air - spinning a triple axle and landing perfectly as I went past Curly and Moe.

So NOW - I'd way rather stay on the ice and skate around and enjoy the moment before I move on to Larry. So I guess I'd rather have some settling - before we have a few more 'triple axles'

Well hope all is well - later my friends

 

[Birchtree]

Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend, The more members on the lily pad the fewer on the tracks. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. We now need another 9 to 1 upday to confirm the greatest bullish significance. This may happen as liquidity is put to work in the next few weeks - if it does we may have a confirmation of a new leg of the bull market.

 

[Steadygain]

Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend, The more members on the lily pad the fewer on the tracks. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. We now need another 9 to 1 upday to confirm the greatest bullish significance. This may happen as liquidity is put to work in the next few weeks - if it does we may have a confirmation of a new leg of the bull market.

Well the LAST THING I want to project is arrogance or being cocky

and I don't think you have that problem Birch.

When pressed for time I say only the Bare Essentials - or my rock bottom point of view and unfortunately that can come across as 'a little strong'. My veiw on the Markets has nothing to do with the MB but only reflects the general picture of how the Markets have been behaving - especially at this particular peroid of time.

I think the majority of members in Safety is based on 2 primary reasons. First if you're use to safety - and the longer you've been in this mode - it's quite an effort stepping out. This same thing pretty much defines the B&Hers - so it's hard to break a long standing habit and with that habit is a higher level of comfort.

The other reason is undoubtedly Fear - or Anxiety - about the Markets 'uncertainties'. We know from the previous year or so that the possibility of 'Getting Burned' is very high. And it's hard to move once you've been scorched.

But taking into account everything that's transpired this is NOT the time to focus on the TECHNICALS - like jobless claims, struggling companies and the inevitable stains the economy continues to face on a Global basis. This is a time to look only at the Markets and ignore the rest.

The RISE that started in 3/09 was very substantial - in indicating a 'Turning Point' but the Duration and Percentage Gain was very unrealistic. The CORRECTION over the past 4 weeks were just what the Markets needed - YES IT WAS A NECCESSARY CORRECTION - But now they can (and will) move forward.

So if I was sounding too arrogant - or whatever - I'm sorry and that's the last thing I want to do. I also appologize if I'm coming across 'too competitively' but I am definately 'a Player' and when I'm in I like to live it up.

Anyway - GL Everyone - really I hope the whole MB comes out winning when it's all said and done.

 

[Birchtree]

The TSP funds are now cheaper than they've been in a very long time. History will show that buying in at times like these leads to nice long-term returns. Buying low is hard work - it requires discipline, and the ability to make rational decisions amid highly emotional climates. Investors who let fear and emotion get in the way of reason lose out by heading to the exit after big downturns. Those who stay invested and forge ahead through the tough times will be rewarded in the end. Even staying on the lily pad investors should dca their contributions into various funds - dcaing is the redeemer of all portfolios. At least it works for me. I need a rally today so I can buy some more wall flowers.

 

[Steadygain]

I am very new to this site, but always go straight to you and Birch.

Hey Babycakes

I like your Ativar a lot and I'm getting a really good feeling...

like you're a 'Good Luck Charm'




So if you're out there I'd really appreciate a Huge Favor from ya.

Please blow on the dice in my hand before I roll them and I'll give you half the winnings

Right now I'm convinced that would make me win !!

 

[Steadygain]

I need a rally today so I can buy some more wall flowers.

This RALLY is not going anywhere but UP - and we both know it.

Thank you Sarah - and hey listen I may not be into politicians but I thought you were great on SNL and if I can forget your political status and just focus on the woman - I think we'd get along pretty good.

Well I need to run

 

[mdszj]

Hi Steadygain

Just wanted to offer my congratulations to you (and anyone else this applies to) on staying in stocks!! Wow the mkt really cranked up recently. I know the last time we spoke you were saying that you expected something really good in the mkt, and you definitely got it.

Unfortunately I have been in G, oh well, maybe some other time. Hopefully you will do well in the near future.

Just out of curiosity, what do you base your trading/investing on? You are definitely doing better than me!!

later thx

 

[Steadygain]

Please blow on the dice in my hand before I roll them and I'll give you half the winnings

Thanks Darlin'

Moderators - if she's on the AT

PLEASE GIVE HER ALL MY WINNINGS FROM YESTERDAY !

Hi Steadygain

Just wanted to offer my congratulations to you (and anyone else this applies to) on staying in stocks!! Wow the mkt really cranked up recently. I know the last time we spoke you were saying that you expected something really good in the mkt, and you definitely got it.

Unfortunately I have been in G, oh well, maybe some other time. Hopefully you will do well in the near future.

Just out of curiosity, what do you base your trading/investing on? You are definitely doing better than me!!

later thx

Thank you for your thoughtful - kind - and much appreciated words.

I'm glad I have NOT burned my bridges with everyone on the MB or made enemies with all my ranting and raving.

With me it's KARMA - and that's the best way to explain it.

Uptrend timed the Last RALLY with super accurate precision and went way up the AT. I was the first to offer my congratulations and make a point of giving him credit.

He knows his stuff and has general guidelines in investing that are outstanding. He also keeps up with numerous technical factors that provide a high degree of timely and accurate predictions.

So as strange as this may sound - I think because I threw out such wonderful Karma to him - that's what is happening now is it's come back to me. Yet when I throw out Good Karma it's never for even an underlying hope of it comming back to me - but sometimes it does.

350z is also one of the most outstanding investors out there. He follows numerous details and 'knows the signs' that keep those in the know - ahead of the game.

When I'd mention awhile back about making him my goal - he responded with 'I'm setting the bar too low'. But the Truth is: anyone close to 350z is doing good and from my perspective he is the gatekeeper to the 10% or better elite club.

Corepuncher is not only SMART - but he is a very strong personality and I really enjoy his style. The only drawback is he has been stuck in G and only because of that do I have a chance of passing him.

I mention these guys because if you're looking for someone who honestly knows their stuff and are very solid players - these 3 are way beyond me and in the end will likely be ahead of me by the end of the year.

I have a style that is unique to me - I'll call it 'The Way of Nature'

Rallies are part of nature and when you 'feel them' and get wrapped up in one - you realize more and more that the moving averages, wedges, candlesticks, bollingerbands, and more especially the KEY factors on which the general Economy is based - NONE OF THAT MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE.

Rallies are built into Volitility - they can not be avoided. They are like hurricanes in our nature. Once in place they will run their course and this one will continue to thrive next week - if not the next few weeks. At this point any Downward movement is simply consolidation. The Rally will run its course.

I would say the Greatest Weakness of the general MB (and one that I have overwhelmingly been guilty of over and over) is Voo Doo Mentality. Somehow we 'believe' the Market is setting us up - trying to bait us - and as soon as we go in 'IT'S GOING TO CRASH'. That belief prevents substantial gains.

Well once again - THANK YOU !!! for starting my day off so beautifully. God bless you my friend and have a super wonderful day and an even better weekend.

 

[Uptrend]

With me it's KARMA - and that's the best way to explain it.

Uptrend timed the Last RALLY with super accurate precision and went way up the AT. I was the first to offer my congratulations and make a point of giving him credit.

He knows his stuff and has general guidelines in investing that are outstanding. He also keeps up with numerous technical factors that provide a high degree of timely and accurate predictions.

So as strange as this may sound - I think because I threw out such wonderful Karma to him - that's what is happening now is it's come back to me. Yet when I throw out Good Karma it's never for even an underlying hope of it comming back to me - but sometimes it does.

Steady: You are way to kind! There is something to be learned from everyone! Call this a self post assessment: On this last rally, while I did see it coming based on technicals, I mis-judged the entry point because I considered a sloping neckline on the developing head and shoulders pattern to be the correct interpretation, while the more textbook horizontal neckline of support actually played out. So I got in at spx 890, while the correct entry point was at spx 879 whcih came a day later. That cost nearly 2%. Then I underestimated the strength of the rally and load of short interest out there, and bailed by IFT deadline last Tuesday, when the market was having trouble with the 20 sma near spx 905. As it turns out a strong short covering rally developed, and the market took off and blew right through it (after IFT time of course). While I am more concerced about capitol preservation now than in my early days of trading (and that is partly because the balance is creeping higher), I need to learn to time my exit points a little better. I previously considered Thursday to be a good exit point based on xyz, but talked myself out of it. So, I have a tendency to sell early, which I am working on for my trading style. But there is always the next trade. Like building giant Lowes says "Lets build something together", on the next trade "Lets trade well together" Kindness is KARMA, it will go far

 

[Steadygain]

The TSP funds are now cheaper than they've been in a very long time. History will show that buying in at times like these leads to nice long-term returns. Buying low is hard work - it requires discipline, and the ability to make rational decisions amid highly emotional climates.

Birch,
I think it's obviously to everyone - that you are my Number One pick. This is the most fundamental TRUTH in investing and over the long run I can not go wrong buying when I did.

For this reason alone - I am not concerned about the present Rally although I certainly believe it will gain strength and keep going for another week or two.

BUT THERE IS NO WAY I COULD MORE EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS 'KNOWLEDGE' AND THE STRENGTH BY WHICH YOU HAVE DISPLAYED IT THROUGHOUT.

Investors who let fear and emotion get in the way of reason lose out by heading to the exit after big downturns. Those who stay invested and forge ahead through the tough times will be rewarded in the end.

Now this is TRUE - but it is somewhat deceiving.

The BEST INVESTOR will avoid the 'big downturn' by shifting to Safety throughout the overwhelming bulk of that event. This is why the Buy & Hold Strategy is largely INFERIOR to investors making adjustments.

The KEY is making very wise Adjustments - and not jumping in and out by emotional plays.

So TSP Wise - I think you kind of suck; but that is only a piece of your overall strategy and therefore there is no way anyone could fault it. THE IMPORTANT INVESTMENTS are the ones you frequently find thoughtout - the Solid and Continual Dividend returns - and the lifestyle you have.

Even staying on the lily pad investors should dca their contributions into various funds - dcaing is the redeemer of all portfolios. At least it works for me. I need a rally today so I can buy some more wall flowers.

At this point - I would agree with Birch. Making your contributions go into C/S/I by any combination is your best bet. We have been through a long Recession and the strains of it will continue for sometime to come. The MARKETS however - are beginning to find some grounding and I'd say the WORST is largely over.

******************************************************

Thanks Uptrend - I like the 'Green Shoots' BTW :cheesy::nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

FIREWORKS ARE EXPLODING AND THE SKY IS LIT UP

VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLYPICS IN CHINA - OR 4TH OF JULY HERE

This is my induction into the Hall of Fame :cheesy:


Thank you ladies and gentlemen, it's a wonderful honor being here.

They asked me to share a few things about myself.

I guess I'm most famous for the once in a lifetime offer between spending the weekend with a Super Model desperately craving for unending attention - and a box of M&Ms.

I asked if the M&Ms were 'peanut' and they said yes.

So I said I'll take the box of M&Ms.

But they kept dragging it out... telling me the Super Model and I would be in the most lavish suite on Earth...with our own pool and a bunch of other stuff...

They kept trying to distract me - but I wouldn't let them.

I asked if the M&Ms were Large Size or Regular

They said 'Large' - so I said I'll definately take the M&Ms

Then they went on to extend my time with the Super Model for a full week - and free flights and accommadations to anywhere we want to go throughout the week....

I'm sharing this story because if getting in the Hall of Fame is anything similar please don't make me have to choose between a box of M&Ms - especially peanut - and something else. Make it a bag of beets ...

Well have a Great Weekend everyone !!

Next week will throw me to 18% - then I might need to rest and catch my breath before moving on.

 

[Uptrend]

Next week will throw me to 18% - then I might need to rest and catch my breath before moving on.

Steadygain:

It is human nature, but interesting how human emotion swings up and down in just a few trading days (that is why the VIX is important to study because it is a collective human emotion barometer).

Anyway, it is nice to be excited for a big gainer or a winning trade, but don't paint the sky too rosy. The head and shoulder pattern on the charts are still intact, and until it is taken out, it points to trouble ahead. I really don't see more upside next week, because of overhead resistance. Expectations will increase for earnings next quarter, while unemployment is still falling. We may have a seasonal upswing in housing starts, but I doubt if it is sustainable. Remember the market gives and the market takes away - probably with a Goldman Sachs trading program.