Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

At a glance the Markets continue to show exceptional strength and have largely held their ground since taking off in 3/09.

I'm happy in G - but then again I'm happy anyway and everything is going pretty well.

At some point I (and many others) will regain my confidence in the Markets sustaining their progressive gains and finally come to grips with this being a Bull Market.

Entry points for those of us who are holding off for the 'huge correction' may be months from now - so it's largely a cautious game of chance jumping in for the 1 or 2 day gains. Getting burned my last time in makes me twice as cautious - so I'll likely wait for a huge correction and hopefully catch a bounce.

GL to all.

I started reading The Shack by William Young yesterday. It's very well written and I'm anxious to get home to keep reading.

 

[Steadygain]

As the Markets are shooting up to the sky this morning here's what I think:

Despite 'us' going through possibly the greatest Global Economic Crisis ever - with the USA being extremely hard hit (as they were in actuality the ones most responsible) - 'we' are use to the Markets going down and with bad news continuing to flood the media 'we' are still convinced the worst is not over.

For most of us (ME - especially) 2008 was a HUGE LOSS; and we are way more conditioned to 'Safety' as a result. So G Fund is a cozy warm blanket that feels wonderful.

Meanwhile - the Markets have solidly rebounded much to the shock and dismay of the 'well informed investors' and not only have they substantially grown for months on end - THEY CONTINUE TO GROW.

The Majority still believe a 'ceiling is near' that will be followed by a very substantial correction. In the biggest way that makes me think the Markets will continue to rise on low volume until 'the rest' catch on. So my outlook - at least for this morning - is very good.

 

[DCguy]

just govt manipulated oscillation between 850 and 950 to control bond yields shooting to the moon

 

[DCguy]

10 yr tbond is now at 3.56%.. down almost .4% in just about 20 days

 

[Steadygain]

just govt manipulated oscillation

Thanks DCguy !!

What a pleasure reading your response.

It's funny (in a way) because nothing could possibly reflect my 'realest' view of things.

Government Manipulation is the name of the game and that forms the basis for everything we know; for the way we live and the way we see everything around us.

In a nutshell we are a spoiled rotten child that does whatever it wants as long as we project a good image. BUT when we run out of money we go to CHINA - our mother homeland - and she gives us money and keeps giving and giving. The problem is she doesn't just give it - she loans it to us. The DEBT 'we' have is lke a watertower filled to the top. Now get an eyedropper and barely take out the smallest drop (call it Madoff) and squeeze it out.

What happens - everyone goes crazy - why how shocking!! Look at all that money - yet in reality it's only the smallest drop.

The world (our government) and governments throughout the globe are what they are and all we can do is make the best with what we have.

For me, it's easier to pretend the manipulation doesn't exist; especially on the levels that dominate our existence.

 

[Birchtree]

There is around $12 trillion lonely dollars sitting on the sidelines and I don't want to try and get through the same door when the tsunami starts. There is no place else for money to make money. So I'll shop early and often and build for the future. Riding the train.

 

[Steadygain]

There is around $12 trillion lonely dollars sitting on the sidelines and I don't want to try and get through the same door when the tsunami starts. There is no place else for money to make money. So I'll shop early and often and build for the future. Riding the train.

In all likelihood - this is a very accurate. I appreciate the optimism Birch and undoubtedly in the end it will work out that way.

If my suspecions are right, however, the thought of this makes me kind of mad. The 'ones' holding the overwhelming bulk of that money are the very ones responsible for the Global Economic Crisis. So not only did they make out like bandits to begin with - but in the end they'll wait for the population at large to pick up the pieces and do whatever they have to do and when things finally begin to take traction again - they'll bring it out of hiding and make another killing.

I wish we could Globally make examples out of them - let the world see the real Madoffs. Then again I would have taken $5M up front and another $15M for every Quarter I kept the International Waters free of pirates. Would have stayed out for 2 years with a $70M cap. Had I done this there would have been no prisoners.

 

[Frixxxx]

There is around $12 trillion lonely dollars sitting on the sidelines and I don't want to try and get through the same door when the tsunami starts. There is no place else for money to make money. So I'll shop early and often and build for the future. Riding the train.

More like 5-6 Trillion. I don't think Everyone's portfolio stood up to the challenge this past year. Remember there are a lot of people hedging their real estate right now in the big three (California, Florida, and Texas)

Those buffers won't release until there is sure sign that interest rates are stable....Inflation is going to scare everyone deeper into their hidey-hole.

 

[Frixxxx]

I wish we could Globally make examples out of them - let the world see the real Madoffs. Then again I would have taken $5M up front and another $15M for every Quarter I kept the International Waters free of pirates. Would have stayed out for 2 years with a $70M cap. Had I done this there would have been no prisoners.

Madoff's are fewer and farther in between believe it or not. To do what he did will be the unraveling of the SEC for a while until they can pinpoint the culprits. I bet you Stanford gets out scott-free. He did less but hid it better. Madoff just didn't hide it at all.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't want those real estate people to get into the stock market - they should sleep in their own beds and leave the rest of us alone.

 

[Steadygain]

More like 5-6 Trillion. I don't think Everyone's portfolio stood up to the challenge this past year. Remember there are a lot of people hedging their real estate right now in the big three (California, Florida, and Texas)

Those buffers won't release until there is sure sign that interest rates are stable....Inflation is going to scare everyone deeper into their hidey-hole.

It's hard to say. At this point very few (if any) would recommend that any Buy and Holder change their strategy. My guess is the bulk of those pushing the Markets over the past few months could easily be moved 'to Bail' if it looked like a real substantial persisting crash; but that appears increasingly unlikely.

As time goes on it's pretty hard to deny the Markets ability to recover and IMHO the longer that lasts the better the chances of them moving higher.

Madoff's are fewer and farther in between believe it or not. To do what he did will be the unraveling of the SEC for a while until they can pinpoint the culprits. I bet you Stanford gets out scott-free. He did less but hid it better. Madoff just didn't hide it at all.

Thanks Frixxxx - of course you're right. Somehow I see more of a small group of individuals like Bank CEOs - Execs - as the Masterminds behind the whole Housing/Credit Disaster and that's what I had in mind. But we'll never known and I guess the best thing is leave it behind and move on.

I don't want those real estate people to get into the stock market - they should sleep in their own beds and leave the rest of us alone.

I'm hoping when the Money really pours in it will escallate and continue throughout the years - so I don't care where it comes from.

 

[Frixxxx]

Really when it comes down to it, it's the auditors we should blame. I used to work for one. They are the most unscrupulous people.

Scenario:
Company A wants to go public. SEC says, you must be audited by one of the big 4 (used to be Big 5 until Enron/Arthur Anderson). Company A picks Auditor B. Auditor B reviews books, finds discrepancies, documents discrepancies, reviews discrepancies with board of directors. Documents change and they have the audit for next year. hmmmm....where did all those discrepancies go? Well, I'll show you how to spread loss over multiple years and hide assets under the loss columns and, ladies and gentlemen, you have just finished Creative Accounting 101.

Scenario 2:
Bank is being audited. Bank has discrepancies. Bank has board. Board has members in the "audit community". Bank has discrepancies. Audit community petitions for change in laws. hmmmm where did all that money come from? We regulate it in......

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmm........:suspicious:

 

[Steadygain]

True - very true...

and the list could likely include many more ....:notrust:

Well good night my friend and God Bless.


Carrie, my youngest got home today so am anxious to get going. She went to a Rock Concert - similar to Woodstock ...

except Christian Groups for 3 days and has been in GA/FL for about 2 weeks

 

[Steadygain]

Frixxxx my dear friend, (and everyone else)

I thought a lot about this last night - in regards to who are the ones really to blame for everything associated with this Global Crisis and the Economic Hardships.

I'm now convinced that it's part of the human condition and that in and of itself is the underlying problem. It appears impossible that we could live and work together without someone in charge. Once a hierarchy is in place we need endless rules to protect and administer it, the law and its enforcement, and we largely wind up with some 'chain of command' - or a system of order that destroys relationship rather than promoting it. Rarely do we experience relationship apart from power.

In our world the value of the individual is constantly weighed against the survival of the system - whether political, economic, social or any other system. First one person, then a few, and finally many are sacrificed for the 'good' and ongoing existence of the system.

This is what lies behind every struggle for power, every prejudice, every war, and every abuse of relationship. The will to power and independence is perhaps the greatest driving force we know.

The deeper I think about everything the more I realize it is not Bush or Obama; it is not the Bank Execs; the auditors... and everyone else we would love to lump in a group and 'Blame for everything'.

The TRUTH is - they along you and me and everyone else has no other choice but to live in the Human Condition that has dominated our existence from the very beginning and throughout the years.

I believe it's a lot harder on us - the hard workers who have had to consistently show a real solid commitment throughout our schooling and training - to get and maintain the jobs we have. If we do a really good job we feel good about ourselves and are blessed with increasing rewards. We can't help but see 'the world' from the perspective of being a good person - a good worker - and one of high morals and ethics and solid responsibility. But in the overall picture we are but the tiniest specks on the wheels of a system that is hugely flawed - because of our human condition.

So the deeper I look at everything - the more I realize 'There is no one to blame' - it's something we 'the hard working good people' would like to believe - but its much bigger than one or two little groups - it's the human condition at large and the inevitable systems that flow out from this condition.

 

[Birchtree]

I could have a lot to say about this issue but rather I'm going to concentrate in taking opportunity of the situation that is presented. I've paid my dues and now it's time to position for the next reward. This is a really great time to invest.

 

[Frixxxx]

Frixxxx my dear friend, (and everyone else)

I thought a lot about this last night - in regards to who are the ones really to blame for everything associated with this Global Crisis and the Economic Hardships.

I'm now convinced that it's part of the human condition...

Yeah, I can see your point. Our own eco-system (economy, ecology, system) in play. I guess the Air Force impressed upon me the value thing and I made Integrity number 1.

I wish it was just more prevelant in the world.

Most everyone here (on the MB) has maintained strong to their morals and beliefs and it's their convictions that make the true investors here a pleasure to see when they show up.

I wish this community could perpetuate into the rest of the investment world and make a strong, morale stand on the rules to play.

Then again, all the fun maybe out of the market if it were too constricted.

 

[Steadygain]

I've paid my dues and now it's time to position for the next reward. This is a really great time to invest.

Birch, you've more than PAID your dues and in so many different ways - but I know what you mean Bro and there are many others on this MB that paid theirs as well.

I read a very 'enlightening article' recently by last year's Economic Nobel Prize winner and another highly regarded Economist regarding the National Debt. Nnutt put a great post reflecting the 'real debt' we're dealing with.

They are able to show that 'keeping the current structures in place and moving forward as we have throughout the years' we are facing hardships like never seen before. 1) The 'Rich' guys can not make a dent in helping us out - not enough Rich guys. 2) The overwhelmingly burden has to fall on the Middle Class (or general population as a whole).

By 2019 a minimum of 55% of our money will have to go TAX specifically addressing the Debt.

When you look at all the facts and figures these guys presented 'the most knowing and honest' guys we have - there is no doubt what you and I have worked for so hard over the years in work, investments, and a thrifty lifestyle will largely go down the drain because of this debt. So I feel for ya Birch - you especially because you gave it all and did everything right; held consistent over the years BUT TIME WILL TELL.

When the DEBT really begins taking its TOLL on you and me and everyone else - my previous message will make a lot more since.

I guess the Air Force impressed upon me the value thing and I made Integrity number 1.

I wish it was just more prevelant in the world.

Damn Right my friend - in fact that is what makes you who you are; that more than anything else.

I agree - this MB is loaded with a high caliber group that knows exactly what we're taking about.

Speaking of which - I've been missing CB - hope he's OK.

Well gotta run - later man

 

[mdszj]

hi steadygain

I was just going thru some of the threads here and saw your statement that by 2019, 55% of our money be taken away as tax. What a ripoff - but just thinking for a minute or so about all the bailouts, etc makes you realize that the payment for all this will ultimately end up coming from us taxpayers.

Because of this I am thinking that it would be good to have a Roth type IRA or TSP where the $$ you put in is tax free when you take it out. I cannot remember where I heard or read it but I am under the impression that within a couple years the TSP may introduce a Roth type option. That would be great. Of course, in the ongoing chess match between the taxpayers vs the banksters/crooks/Fed, I would not be surprised if this never takes place. That way they can make sure we pay taxes on a greater amt of $$, after it has had a chance to grow.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

hi steadygain

Because of this I am thinking that it would be good to have a Roth type IRA or TSP where the $$ you put in is tax free when you take it out. I cannot remember where I heard or read it but I am under the impression that within a couple years the TSP may introduce a Roth type option. That would be great.

Until they decide the government can't function if you don't pay "capital gains" on your Roth accounts and change the rules accordingly!

 

[mdszj]

Until they decide the government can't function if you don't pay "capital gains" on your Roth accounts and change the rules accordingly!

Exactly! That is why I think there will end up being some BS about why it is not a good idea!!