Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Hey KC - good to see ya my friend.

Well I see this as pretty much IDENTICAL to last week. Based on the 'Volume' which continues to dominate this blasted period of history and drag it on forever.....

in addition to the 'typical investor mindset' which continues....

ODDS ARE - the ones getting in the game will take advantage of this dip and it will bounce back up. So for now I'd rather bounce around then lose out altogether.

I would agree with Birch - however - and say the odds of a substantial correction dominate the picture at this point. If I thought I had anything to do with it I'd hang in a little longer and hope I could somehow 'magically bounce' before 700 point successive drops. Today is not enough to force the 'SELL OFF' so I'm still okay with where I am.

Well I hope Tinker Bell and Lyric are doing well. By this time that little rascal is probably crawling around - maybe even standing up.

 

[Steadygain]

This morning I was prepared for the worst


But now things aren't nearly as bad as I expected


The way I see it is I'm getting toasted - should wind up brown :nuts:


That's way better than being charred black

I don't see anything majorly changing over the next half hour. Tomorrow through 7/3 will be one of the biggest and most unexpected jumps the Markets have taken with a gain of 7 to 12%

 

[Birchtree]

In May, the market saw a five day streak of losses in a six-day period, only to be followed by a four day rally. Investors who got in at the bottom earned 5%. I'll take what you leave on the table - thanx.

 

[Steadygain]

No Problem

Market Timing - especially sporatic and short term will likely go to the dealer - so it's one of those things.

On the whole - the more your stomach gets 'quezzy' the more you should hold on because the 'jump' you've been waiting on is right at the door.

In retrospect I would have bought S/I at the very bottom - sold at 35% and probably asked to be taken from the AT. I would have felt pretty weird way up there - so Buy and Hold sure has its advantages.

 

[Steadygain]

Financial Barometer - General Market Overview

Foreclosures are INCREASING - and we now know the Housing Problem is YET TO BOTTOM

I say this only because this has been THE OVERWHELMING 'SCAPEGOAT' which everyone has pointed as the Chief Problem.

FED is saying don't even think about INCREASING RATES for at least another year or more.

No one wants the ECONONY TO TAKE TRACK AND TAKE OFF more than the FED and Government. They are ultimately the ONES we have to depend on to get things moving and corrected.

Lowering RATES and stimulating the economy with MORE MONEY have been the long standing tradition through the years. With the RATES at ZERO - quite awhile - and more and more MONEY being SPENT ... no magic cure or quick turn around appears possible.

Expect some Attack - Biological or otherwise to hit the USA or for tensions in the Mid East to hit 'new highs'

Did I mention the continual job cuts ongoing throughout the USA and the increasing stresses facing most Industries.

LOOKING FOR THE ICE TO CRACK --- AND THINGS TO PLUNGE

Thank You - G Fund - Always and Forever our Saving Grace.

 

[Birchtree]

There are 17 G funders in the top 30 that are getting ready to flame - that will make room for the more adventurous to move up in rankings.

 

[kar_crazy]

well dont forget to drag me with you BT i am gettiing tired of the _ side of trading

 

[Steadygain]

There are 17 G funders in the top 30 that are getting ready to flame - that will make room for the more adventurous to move up in rankings.

Oddly enough - I mainly said that to throw in a 'Counter Weight' to all the enthusiasum. Seemed like everyone was going kind of nuts - a little overjoyed with undeniable expectations of some huge rally.

Also said a lot of that stuff to give myself some comfort for jumping out when I did - sort of psyching myself up and saying: "It's OK you're cool man don't worry about it".

But in all honestly - things look like crap to me and that's the truth; but there's no way I would have expected the past 3 months to keep going up - so ya never know.

Well on a side note: Birch I could care less where I am on the AT as long as I'm not losing. For me it's wholly personal and being able to acknowledge 'We have not lost any money in 2009'. So Mama Bear is the only one I'm concerned about.

Your wording is a little 'odd' however in that G is the only place where you can't possibly 'Flame' - it's like the ultra comfort zone. But it can get mighty boring.

I'd love you see YOU especially get up towards the TOP. Oh my gosh, all the new members wanting to know how you did it and you tell them - JUST BUY AND HOLD.

well dont forget to drag me with you BT i am gettiing tired of the _ side of trading

The bright side is - you really can't win being out of the game; all you can do is keep from losing.

Best of Luck

 

[mick504]

That's for sure....when more adjustable rate mortgages reset in 2010 we could see it all over again. And don't forget about commercial real estate....I don't think that is being considered as part of the current picture or problem. That's another story! The old saying is " it ain't over, until it's over".

 

[Frixxxx]

The bright side is - you really can't win being out of the game; all you can do is keep from losing.

Best of Luck

And "G" Fund is still in the game.......:laugh: Albeit, a VERY BOOOORING GAME.

 

[WorkFE]

Being in the G fund is like winning a football game 3 to 0 but is better than getting beat at home 45 to nothing:nuts:

 

[Frixxxx]

Being in the G fund is like winning a football game 3 to 0 but is better than getting beat at home 45 to nothing:nuts:

Actually, it's 2-0. More Defense than offense.... (Safety):laugh:

 

[WorkFE]

Did I mention the field goal was a lucky 70 yarder.

 

[tsptalk]

The bright side is - you really can't win being out of the game; all you can do is keep from losing.

Very true. But the question is, are you trying to be the market, or beat the market?

You can't beat the market unless you are out when it goes down.

Just a flip side of what you are saying. Both easier said than done.

Good luck!

 

[Steadygain]

Wow!! MUCHO great comments !

Like to start off with what I'd call a 'Birchtree Tid bit' :
Last night the PBS guy on the Nightly Business Show - said we are presently in a V Formation - 'Bull Market'.

He stressed in the 70s we had an identical situation - where the Economy SUCKED - apparently looked as bad then as it appears now to me - BUT the Markets just kept right on going up as if it didn't matter and he mentioned 60% - (which was likely a yearly gain).

ONLY - in retrospect - months from now (or years from now) will we know the truth.

I will always try to BEAT the Markets - never without failure would that not be my overall endeavor - and on the whole it has paid off.

Last year anyone who stayed in G FUND - 'Beat the Markets' and came out way ahead because not only did they retain the beginning amount - but they also saved every dollar added throughout the year. So I'm highly determined to not make the same mistake twice.

The odds of the Markets taking a substantial dive - IMHO - is very high and being in Safety when the Markets are getting pounded is the way to go. Capital Preservation is every bit as important as making Gains - so in the long run G Fund is often a very good strategy for anyone who is not a Buy and Holder.

Have no doubt however - at some point I will undoubtedly take a chance and throw everything in High Risk.

 

[alevin]

Wheee! you n' me. The only debate is when. As MacArthur said, I WILL return! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

But before you move back to high risk allow me to send you a pair of sticky pants - they will help you to hold a position.

 

[alevin]

Birchie, I'm already using the sticky pants in my 2 brokerage accounts. :nuts: Can't handle more than 1 pair at a time. Lost my grip on GLD about a week ago, still clinging to the other commod stocks/ETF-divvy paying or not-for another week-mayyyyybe longer. Still getting a feel for holding/selling for shortterm cap gains vs. longterm cap gains, and risk therein in this market.

 

[Steadygain]

Wheee! you n' me. :nuts:

You playing Rhythm and me playing Lead to 'Warewolves of London'

Both of us exaggerating the Howls - having a blast. My first thought !

Birchie, I'm already using the sticky pants in my 2 brokerage accounts. :nuts: Can't handle more than 1 pair at a time. Lost my grip on GLD about a week ago, still clinging to the other commod stocks/ETF-divvy paying or not-for another week-mayyyyybe longer. Still getting a feel for holding/selling for shortterm cap gains vs. longterm cap gains, and risk therein in this market.

Birch - we call this DIVERSIFICATION and it's a little complicated; but essentially it's spreading your investments across a wide range and handling different accounts in different ways.

 

[Steadygain]

A + B = C

California + 20 Billion Debt = Diaster

You would think that is the only outcome and it will undoubtedly cause a 'domino effect' throughout the other States.

Well NOTHING makes since in this day and age - so I'm going to guess that as the Hardships Increase and Programs are slashed and more and more suffer

THAT THE MARKETS WILL FLY TO EVER INCREASING HEIGHTS.

At this point I don't see anything bringing the Markets down that has not happened already. But I'll stay in G because I'm way too grounded in A + B = C.