Show-me Account Talk

[FundSurfer]

Not that I am trying to influence you in any way, I don't know that I would let the recent string of positives affect my decision making that much. I'd probably agree with unlimited trades available, but not in our current limited system.

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[Mcqlives]

Not that I am trying to influence you in any way, I don't know that I would let the recent string of positives affect my decision making that much. I'd probably agree with unlimited trades available, but not in our current limited system.

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I agree as well, but if you went to G today what would be your target re-entry?
For me, the trading ranges (even though progressing up) have been just too close for me to see which way the breakout will go. I'm staying in for now but, regardless, when the breakout happens I think there will be more signs than we see now so we will know the direction quickly. If it is down it should play out in abouta week, then go into another narrow range of trading with more profits to be made.

 

[grandma]

Show-me: My plan is to go to the G fund for a potently pull back the rest of the week. We have had many days of positive movement in a row and nothing goes straight up. I hop to take advantage of that this week

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seems to have been a good day to have exited `I' !!

 

[Show-me]

Not that I am trying to influence you in any way, I don't know that I would let the recent string of positives affect my decision making that much. I'd probably agree with unlimited trades available, but not in our current limited system.

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That chart is insane, but I have one trade back in left and unlimited freebies out.

Nice to see ya!

 

[J-Trader]

Nice move going to G. Hindsight is demonstrating your impeccable timing. Looks like you'll be in first place in the autotracker.

 

[poolman]

Show-me,

Hindsight is forsight. You made a very good move imo yesterday. Kudos to you.

I'm looking for a entry around 10200. We will see. As you know things can change on a dime.

I've been waiting for some weakness.

 

[Bullitt]

I think it's over. Everybody is bullish, and everybody is calling for that Fib retracement to hit at 1200. Seriously, who's left to buy? With mom and pop piling into junk bonds and institutions pumping the "buy and hold works, this rally is evidence" mantra, I see another box of broken dreams ahead.

I'm talking longer term here and I may lighten up further than 45% G in the week ahead. The majority of this rally's gains have already been made. Anybody know what it's like when all the bulls become bears? We are seeing the opposite happen in the dollar right now.

Good luck to longs. Dow support around 9600-9700.

 

[felixthecat]

Been kinda tough hanging down well below 100 in the Autotracker. Plan on moving into the top 75 after today. Depending on how bad things get...might even move up into the top 50. Appears to me we got quite of bit of tree shaking going on with lots of folks falling out. No reason we can't get a real shocker tomorrow. Almost feels like the swing doors have opened under the once solid footing of the markets.

Dangerous trading ahead. Look out below.

 

[fedgolfer]

I think it's over. Everybody is bullish, and everybody is calling for that Fib retracement to hit at 1200. Seriously, who's left to buy? With mom and pop piling into junk bonds and institutions pumping the "buy and hold works, this rally is evidence" mantra, I see another box of broken dreams ahead.

I'm talking longer term here and I may lighten up further than 45% G in the week ahead. The majority of this rally's gains have already been made. Anybody know what it's like when all the bulls become bears? We are seeing the opposite happen in the dollar right now.

Good luck to longs. Dow support around 9600-9700.

But that's the thing... I don't think everyone is bullish for the long term... in fact, very few. There are plently of big cap value stocks that haven't seen huge gains like the indexes, so there may be sector hopping, index hopping, etc. Don't the bull phases usually go from hugely oversold run-up to a stock picker's market and then euphoric heights on vogue-stocks (that everyone tries to catch a piece of POT, MOT, FSLR, etc)? REITs, real estate is still crappy and that may even see some rotation later this year. I'm buying the dips until we get major cross-over confirmations in the index leaders. I don't think we've seen the euphoria yet for the long term top, maybe the short term. Just thinking out loud.

 

[Bullitt]

All I'll say is this- The good news always comes out at the top, and bad news at the bottom. Think about the news from China recently and all this hub-bub about monetizing our debt. Read some of these 2010 market predictions and tell me if the herd is bullish nor not. KRE, BKX, SMH are topping here in my opinion and the VIX... well, we all know where that's at. I think the VIX made a bullish reversal yesterday.

I'm not calling an absolute top here, I'm just calling it like I see it.

http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3256&postcount=142

 

[fedgolfer]

Bullitt... cool w/ me. I just like the discussion and sharing of thoughts/data. To me its not about who's right or wrong, but did you share the info you had... that's the strength of this board. And, you always share... so thanks!

if the pattern holds in AGG, the possible H&S will say that money from bonds will go to equities. That may take time to prove though because is it a H&S or double top... we won't know until it shows us.

 

[hessian]

Hey Show-me,
You are certainly, really hitting it right off this year. Good to read your comments, and others posting with you.
Could I ask about what I'm seeing - BIG GAPS in all the TSP charts, gaps down in equities, gaps up in bonds, and follow thru by in most other equities, going almost with parabolic drops (at least at this hour).

I realize it is OPEX week, but early, with several days to go until Friday,
This action seems unprecedented to me, so just asking is this gap & parabolic action significant? - wondering what today's action indicates to more learned folks than myself? (e.g. was yesterday the climax for Jan, or just for OPEX week?)
Much Thanks!
And good to see, you're back!!

 

[Mcqlives]

Ditto from me on the congrats! You sure called today right...I kept hoping the afternoon would give a solid line on tomorrows market direction but, instead, there was the same, boring, narrow trading range we have seen so much of lately. Maybe this was the first baby step of a 10%+ fall. Hope not!

 

[coolhand]

Nice job out the gate in the new year SM.

 

[Show-me]

Aww, shucks.

 

[nnuut]

#1 on the tracker, you are show-off right? CONGRATULATIONS on your timing on the move to the "G" Fund.

 

[Show-me]

I had the pleasure of spending six hours traveling today so I go a lot of NPR today.

Two things stick out roughly 1.7M foreclosures in 2008, roughly the same in 2009, and in excess of 2M coming for 2010.

U-6 unemployment worse than the 1980's recession and going to get worse.

Home equity is a thing of the past and lenders will be more that just cautious. Borrowers will be more than just cautious too.

Home equity and loose credit fuel the economy and in turn the market the last decade. That is done.

One call was a Doctor in N. Calif. and claimed that her and her fellow Doctors are seeing a 40% to 50% reduction in patient coming in for basic exams and ailments.

One call was from Florida and said business was booming an getting more busy every day. He was in the foreclosure business.

Markets go up, markets go down, and greed gets me burned. Doesn't matter why or how, just keep a clear head and scalp a few points every month.

Sound easy.

Remember the employment statistics on how many job to get back to where we was.

Remember credit is gone. Home equity is gone.

The honest hold outs on paying their upside down mortgages are walking away and will walk away in drove when their Alt-A loans reset.

The foreclosures will take time to run through the system.

Also, remember the Census Bureau will hire a ton of folks this year, so jobs numbers will run up and then back down.

 

[Show-me]

#1 on the tracker, you are show-off right? CONGRATULATIONS on your timing on the move to the "G" Fund.

Likely won't last long. Right place at the right time on a clean slate. Trick will be to not miss the rally or to miss the plung. Long year ahead that is for sure.

Thanks anyways.

 

[Show-me]

SocGen profit almost wiped out by $2 billion charge

French group hit by further subprime write-downs, fixed-income slowdown


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares in Societe Generale sank as much as 6% Wednesday after the French bank warned that it would take another 1.4 billion euros ($2.02 billion) of charges on risky mortgage assets, virtually wiping out its profit for the fourth quarter.

In a brief trading update, the bank said it had again marked down the value of its mortgage holdings to reflect rising loss rates on both prime and subprime loans.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/so...ut-by-2-bln-charge-2010-01-13?dist=beforebell

 

[Blindman]

Likely won't last long. Right place at the right time on a clean slate. Trick will be to not miss the rally or to miss the plung. Long year ahead that is for sure.

Thanks anyways.

I'm with you on that Show me... Now I just got to figure out how to get back in......My track record has been pretty good about pulling, but it sucks on trying to figure out how to get back in.....Looking for a little more of a pull back now that I am out.....Last time I went back in the market on a pullback, the very next day it dropped 120 points on the DOW......Missed that one!!! Win some - lose some...
GL everyone

Blindman out!