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Not a dismal year but disappointing, I'll survive.

January 2009 worst month for the S&P ever! First five days rule failed and the month of January rule failed.

I'm in the I fund 100% as a contrary play against myself.

We shall see.:D
 
Been studying the STA about Midterm election years and will post some interesting stuff about it.

January Barometer failed big time last year with the worst January on record and the S&P finishing up 26.68%. This has happened five other time since 1950 and all were major event. I'm sure this on will be attributed to the massive bail out from the angry taxpayers.

Historically this is a bottoming year but external forces are still at play. We shall see.
 
I have been studying the STA and came up with my prediction for 2010. :D

We will retest low of March 2009. The decline will be 21% or greater and rally back 50% from the bottom by the end of 2011.

I feel the S&P 500 will dip to at least 900 but more like 750. 900 represents 21% and 750 represents 34% declines.

2009 will go down in history as the biggest mistake the government ever made intervening in banking, manufacturing, and insurance thus prolonging the inevitable.

Key word confluence.

1. First Five Days indicator. As goes the first five days, goes the year, except in Midterm election years it is more of a contrary indicator.

2. January Barometer. As goes the month of January goes the year. There are 5 failure since 1935, four were a result of wars, one was flat, and there was last year. Jan. 2009 was down over 8% across the board worst Jan. on record, but the year finished to the plus 26% on the S&P. I ask you why? I should be obvious if you are breathing and have a heart beat........and pay taxes.;)

3. Midterm election years have a record of being bottoming years since 1914. Most common month is October, but it can vary. Seven fail to mark the exact Midterm year. Average decline is 21% and the average gain is 50%.

4. Decennial cycle or tenth year of decades. The zero year of a decennial cycle on average is the worst year. Combine that with the Midterm election year and it might carry some weight. In all, the decennial cycle is not as reliable in modern times.

5. Presidential cycle. The first of second year of a new presidential cycle are generally weak and the last two very strong. The honeymoon is over.;)

6. January marks the end of the best six months strategy. February is ranked 11th out of 12.

Can you see it? Confluence. Be should pull back and set up for the next leg up. Nothing goes straight up or straight down.
 
If the .gov continues with the past level of intervention and taxpayer bail outs, all bets are null and void.
 
My contrary I fund play is based on the STA First Five Day Indicator. I am speculating that the first five days will be positive and the month will finish to the negative, setting up the Midterm bottom scenario.

I'm out Friday or Monday, and the jobs report has me itching already.
 
Looking at the EFA chart and I may punch sooner. Looks like we would have to make a new high to continue up. My play was just to scalp a few points for the week. I see more risk than reward the rest of the week.

O'look the boyz have a better printing press.

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials last month debated increasing and extending asset purchases should the economy weaken, with a few favoring the move and one seeking a reduction, minutes of their last meeting showed.

Policy makers also differed over whether risks are greater that inflation will speed up or slow down too much, the Fed’s Open Market Committee said today in minutes of its Dec. 15-16 meeting in Washington. Some officials said “quite elevated” slack in the economy would damp prices, while others saw a risk of faster inflation from the Fed’s “extraordinary” stimulus.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avtFDBavDagE&pos=1
 
http://www.safehaven.com/article-15416.htm

We're bailing out corporations that should fail, making financial promises we can't keep, and adding layers of debt we can't possibly repay. And the real killer is, if we don't have the cash, we just print it. It is, by any reasonable account, the "blunder that will plunder" the next several generations. It is changing America permanently, and the problems will persist long after you and I are laid to rest.

Bottom line: after all the bailout programs, housing initiatives, rescue efforts, stimulus schemes, bank takeovers, wars, unemployment benefit extensions, and numerous other promises, the biggest financial deception of the decade is what the U.S. government is doing to the dollar. Nothing else even comes close.

This reckless activity has spooked our foreign creditors, weakened our global standing, diluted our currency, is punishing savers and retirees, and ultimately sets us up for a level of inflation this country has never seen before.

Yet, what is the guardian of our economy and money telling us now?

"Will the Federal Reserve's actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road? The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so. In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here." (Ben Bernanke, December 7, 2009).

This is pure rubbish. If inflation could be controlled by just thinking stable inflation thoughts, then Ben should be able to grow a full head of hair by just thinking scalp follicle thoughts. This is so ridiculous, it's insulting.

Government actions make a mockery of their words; what they say and what they do are diametrically opposed. It's clear that inflation is not a question of if, but when.

Any level-headed individual has to conclude that there will be a steady - and likely accelerating - decline in the dollar's purchasing power. It's inevitable.

The great masses don't quite understand it yet, but they will. There will be no escape from the cold, hard slap in the face citizens will receive when a high level of inflation arrives. And when it does, it will make a mockery of any opposing viewpoint.

So the question before you is simple: Will you be a prepared survivor for what lies ahead, despite what our government leaders tell us, or will you be a complacent victim of the biggest financial deception of the decade?

For me, there's only one solution. Don't kid yourself into thinking a man-made asset will protect your purchasing power. This is the time to be overweight gold and silver. I advise letting them serve their purpose for you.
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I fund did not get hit to hard and the US Equities held in the positive.

Oscar likes the S&P because it is finding support and the Dollar is too.

I may rotate into C and S fund today.
 
Fist five days of January finish very solid. The C and S fund had positive days every day of the week. The market is due a rest, but the I fund has not been so luck and my keep running for a day or two.

The first five day indicator is spotty on midterm election years at around 50/50 chance.

The month of January indicator has a 91% success rate and after last years 6th miss in its history, I feel the odds are in its favor.

Waiting for the end of January.
 
Midterm election year will be interesting. When Clinton beat Bush his midterm election year was a disaster for Democrats, they lost 21% of the Congress in that election. A redistribution of power so to speak, I see the same storm on the horizon and it would seem so do many of them in office.

Perhap the safest thing for the American taxpayer is to have a Congress that can not get a bill passed.
 
Show-me said:
Perhap the safest thing for the American taxpayer is to have a Congress that can not get a bill passed.
Click to expand...

...if only the Administration hadn't been so Grandiose & Self-serving instead of tackling the problems one bite at a time! Chew well before you swallow. Deal with the Most Pressing in the view of the Voting Citizenery - jobs & economy.....
In the words of Phil: `oh, well......'
 
Instead of "Grandiose & Self-serving," I would say inexperienced, Granny. But that's how it is in our democracy. We distrust the professional pols, the insiders, so we go for outsiders. Clinton, Bush, Obama are (were) amateurs at this level and it shows.
 
jimijr said:
Instead of "Grandiose & Self-serving," I would say inexperienced, Granny. But that's how it is in our democracy. We distrust the professional pols, the insiders, so we go for outsiders. Clinton, Bush, Obama are (were) amateurs at this level and it shows.
Click to expand...


Certainly not at fund raising and being loyal to special interests or lobbyist. Money and connections make a President not experience.
 
Oscar is making some compelling arguments that the dollar will rally and Europe will be flat. US markets will rally according to Oscar. He is a short term trader.

STA notes this week is historically horrible due to expiration week, with the exception of Monday.

STA notes that Fridays and Mondays are becoming more bullish days.

STA notes the first five day indicator has a horrible track record during midterm election years. Five positive days in a row seem creepy to me but I took advantage of it.

My plan is to go to the G fund for a potently pull back the rest of the week. We have had many days of positive movement in a row and nothing goes straight up. I hop to take advantage of that this week.

EFA chart is looking freaky to me. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693 The $57 range is a brick wall for the EFA. Both the NIKK and FTSE are running a bit far above the 20 sma and could be due a rest. Dollar looks like it could retest high and the 200 sma.
 
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