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Show-me Account Talk
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alevin
Well-known member
Good one, Show. Yes unemployment in my neck of the country is horrific, moreso than most states right now. Largely rural, small town, too, when you look at the counties involved.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Can you paint some first hand observations of the effect of high unemployment that you can see?
The many many "benefits" programs for the unemployed/unemployable presumably dent the effects and for many are simply leading them to learning to live on less...much less...and moving from their residences to others they can afford on the benefits checks.
But I wonder if tent cities have sprung up or greatly enlarged, shopping malls are visibly affected, begging by women holding babies, churches are significantly increasing their pleading for help, families are moving together, etc. For example, Denninger periodically notes the absence of shoppers in his nearby mall. Anecdotals in the media seem to overemphasize a small example.
In the DC area, there are no visual indications that anything is wrong. Just some people still joking about 201Ks/301Ks. In the migrant heavy communities close in there are still 8 cars at a house. In the migrant heavy shopping areas there do seem to be too many adult males during the week. They're either between jobs, getting help from the south or living on the benefits checks their non-wives with children get.
alevin
Well-known member
Warren, I haven't been out of small-town/rural areas to "big city" in months to a year. There are tent cities all over in the forests east of Portland, from what I see in the big city cable newscasts. State finances are promising to implode starting next year, so that is when I expect to see things get really really bad re unemployment benefits running out.
In my small town, there are many storefronts/CRE vacant/up for sale in the past 2 years, with CRE still due to take the big hit, I expect more to come, more home for-sale signs in my neighborhood recently and houses empty or for rent. The foodbanks letters (including local Salv Army) pleading for help are sounding shrill and desperate relative to the need. I donate to local community Salvation Army as well as to state foodbank. Very rural Red-state rural counties where I used to live-are dealing with 20%+ unemployment and have been for at least 6 months. Official stats. I saw many ranches up for sale about 6 months ago in one of those counties. I will also say that the 2 decent (non-Walmart) grocery stores are typically very quiet and fairly empty. I'm waiting for at least 1 of them to close in the next year-which will be a huge loss in price competition. they are trying to survive-installed a couple self-checkout stations (job loss for somebody); one store rearranged this past year to disguise reduction in shelf space/inventory.
In my small town, there are many storefronts/CRE vacant/up for sale in the past 2 years, with CRE still due to take the big hit, I expect more to come, more home for-sale signs in my neighborhood recently and houses empty or for rent. The foodbanks letters (including local Salv Army) pleading for help are sounding shrill and desperate relative to the need. I donate to local community Salvation Army as well as to state foodbank. Very rural Red-state rural counties where I used to live-are dealing with 20%+ unemployment and have been for at least 6 months. Official stats. I saw many ranches up for sale about 6 months ago in one of those counties. I will also say that the 2 decent (non-Walmart) grocery stores are typically very quiet and fairly empty. I'm waiting for at least 1 of them to close in the next year-which will be a huge loss in price competition. they are trying to survive-installed a couple self-checkout stations (job loss for somebody); one store rearranged this past year to disguise reduction in shelf space/inventory.
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Show-me
Well-known member
My observations are similar to alevin's. I see some stores busy but I wonder if it is sale items only. Jobs are available but not the good jobs we once had. No tent cities here but trailer parks are at max capacity and multiple families per house or trailer. Food banks here a begging for help. Salvation Army too and the need for clothing. We pulled some yard sale winter cloths out of attic today to donate. Public aid is maxed out and we have the same gaming of the system with husbands divorcing wives to get the aid.
One footnote, I made a six hour round trip for the holiday and traffic was light and I only seen one highway patrol when normally I see a dozen. Makes me wonder about State budget short falls too. Save money by not putting the cops on the street this holiday.
One footnote, I made a six hour round trip for the holiday and traffic was light and I only seen one highway patrol when normally I see a dozen. Makes me wonder about State budget short falls too. Save money by not putting the cops on the street this holiday.
Show-me
Well-known member
I will note that coupon and sale shopping is at a maximum here. People are actually networking the sales and coupons. Stores are enforcing limits on sale items and they are running out quickly. My mom went to a recent sale at a HyVee and said it was like going to a big store on Black Friday. She got there and there were NO carts to be found.
Show-me
Well-known member
Thanksgiving Sales Attract More Shoppers, Less Average Spending
Bloomberg - Lauren Coleman-Lochner - 5 hours ago
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- More consumers went shopping over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, yet spent less than last year as they hunted for bargains on toys and electronics, according to the National Retail Federation.
Bloomberg - Lauren Coleman-Lochner - 5 hours ago
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- More consumers went shopping over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, yet spent less than last year as they hunted for bargains on toys and electronics, according to the National Retail Federation.
Show-me
Well-known member
Show-me
Well-known member
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkenuaFXUus&feature=sub
Oscar thinks Santa rally is about to happen with a break out to the up side.
Oscar thinks Santa rally is about to happen with a break out to the up side.
Yesterday some guys bought in and today I plan to do my 1st IFT of the month. I know you said that you were looking for an exit, but you should reconsider this. Yesterday the S fund outperformed the C fund. Unless there has been a sea change, I believe that the S fund should continue to do better. Also, if the Euro keeps its relative strength over the USD in this market, the I fund should behave quite well, if not better than C. Admittedly, there are guys here who know a lot more than me regarding the relationship among currencies and their impact on the markets. Opinions will be appreciated....
Show-me
Well-known member
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693
US dollar shot up to the 50 dma. Is this a reset of the chart to start another leg down?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
Bonds headed for the 50 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
S fund is neither over sold or over bought, but trying to find direction. The 20 dma is crossing above the 50 dma, a good sign.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
C fund, not over bought or over sold. Look at the resistance at 1109 to 1113. Just can not seem to break it out to one side or the other.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
Transports popped but can they follow through?
Seems we are at the cross roads, next week is historically a weak week. Economic data is also weak next week.
One thing for sure, which ever direction we break to will be a wild ride.
The unemployment picture shows that the .gov continues to tell bold lies and spin corrupt data. Net losses of jobs continue but unemployment is down, :suspicious::notrust:. BHO has a party to show the country we are doing better. NET JOB LOSSES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE! DUH! Could it be that people are GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK! Maybe?
What until the construction job supported by the stimulus get eliminated. Temporary workers are showing up but what does that do? Census jobs will show up but that is more taxpayer stimulus that are not real jobs. Fake job to fool the dumb investors into the market.
People laugh a Peter Schiff but he is right in some aspects. The economy is not shedding jobs in the right places and building job in the right places due to the artificial .gov intervention. The country can not support our economy with medical, education, government, and government contracted jobs.
The bubbles are forming and the mortgage resets are coming. Credit card defaults are breaking new records and it is the spending season. People will use their CC to charge what they can not afford and then default. It is the old new game. Everyone is playing it in the mortgage sector.
Here is a new epiphany I had listening to Clark Howard this week. Employers will not hire back laid off employee's as regular employee's. Why? Because if they hire them back as "contract employee's" they do not have to pay payroll tax or benefits and they are not considered a employee for the new health care reform. Contract employee's pay all their own taxes and benefits.
What is the broader implications? Social Security. Now there will be less money going into SS thus bringing the critical mass date closer than we think. Contract employee's pay in less SS tax than would be brought in if they were a regular employee.
The street has figured out how to get out of pay more taxes. Can't blame them, its a black hole. Problem is that more people are opting to retire early because they are discouraged and we are collecting much less SS revenue to support the folk already on the rolls and the new ones too.
Just keep in mind that we need to create 250K jobs a month for 5 years to get to 5% unemployment and add another 40K to that number to get to 4% unemployment. We have 3 million new workers entering the work force every year.
Am I discouraged, yes. Am I in the market, yes. The trend is your friend until it ends. As dollar weakness continues, the market keep climbing just like commodities. Dollar weakness is inverse to commodities and US indices.
Take a look at the article that James posted about P/E ratio's. They are ridiculous. I have it here, eleven posts back.
Be cautious folks the bubbles are forming. Watch the banks. The big boys made themselves to big to fail and are not lending money out for a reason. They are squirreling cash away for the rainy day fund. Look at the banks failing and the FDIC can not give them away. WSJ did a article on that. That is likely why we are not seeing the FDIC dismantling more than 6 or 7 banks a week. They have no one willing to take the really bad ones so they are letting them float with taxpayer backing.
US dollar shot up to the 50 dma. Is this a reset of the chart to start another leg down?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
Bonds headed for the 50 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
S fund is neither over sold or over bought, but trying to find direction. The 20 dma is crossing above the 50 dma, a good sign.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
C fund, not over bought or over sold. Look at the resistance at 1109 to 1113. Just can not seem to break it out to one side or the other.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
Transports popped but can they follow through?
Seems we are at the cross roads, next week is historically a weak week. Economic data is also weak next week.
One thing for sure, which ever direction we break to will be a wild ride.
The unemployment picture shows that the .gov continues to tell bold lies and spin corrupt data. Net losses of jobs continue but unemployment is down, :suspicious::notrust:. BHO has a party to show the country we are doing better. NET JOB LOSSES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE! DUH! Could it be that people are GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK! Maybe?
What until the construction job supported by the stimulus get eliminated. Temporary workers are showing up but what does that do? Census jobs will show up but that is more taxpayer stimulus that are not real jobs. Fake job to fool the dumb investors into the market.
People laugh a Peter Schiff but he is right in some aspects. The economy is not shedding jobs in the right places and building job in the right places due to the artificial .gov intervention. The country can not support our economy with medical, education, government, and government contracted jobs.
The bubbles are forming and the mortgage resets are coming. Credit card defaults are breaking new records and it is the spending season. People will use their CC to charge what they can not afford and then default. It is the old new game. Everyone is playing it in the mortgage sector.
Here is a new epiphany I had listening to Clark Howard this week. Employers will not hire back laid off employee's as regular employee's. Why? Because if they hire them back as "contract employee's" they do not have to pay payroll tax or benefits and they are not considered a employee for the new health care reform. Contract employee's pay all their own taxes and benefits.
What is the broader implications? Social Security. Now there will be less money going into SS thus bringing the critical mass date closer than we think. Contract employee's pay in less SS tax than would be brought in if they were a regular employee.
The street has figured out how to get out of pay more taxes. Can't blame them, its a black hole. Problem is that more people are opting to retire early because they are discouraged and we are collecting much less SS revenue to support the folk already on the rolls and the new ones too.
Just keep in mind that we need to create 250K jobs a month for 5 years to get to 5% unemployment and add another 40K to that number to get to 4% unemployment. We have 3 million new workers entering the work force every year.
Am I discouraged, yes. Am I in the market, yes. The trend is your friend until it ends. As dollar weakness continues, the market keep climbing just like commodities. Dollar weakness is inverse to commodities and US indices.
Take a look at the article that James posted about P/E ratio's. They are ridiculous. I have it here, eleven posts back.
Be cautious folks the bubbles are forming. Watch the banks. The big boys made themselves to big to fail and are not lending money out for a reason. They are squirreling cash away for the rainy day fund. Look at the banks failing and the FDIC can not give them away. WSJ did a article on that. That is likely why we are not seeing the FDIC dismantling more than 6 or 7 banks a week. They have no one willing to take the really bad ones so they are letting them float with taxpayer backing.
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