Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Latest from PPT...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS-mHWRGGas&feature=em-uploademail

 

[Rod]

Will today become Day 3?

Mr. Market's emotional resiliency is... well, emotional. Emotional at best. If I'm being honest, it makes me quite nervous to even contemplate an IFT in the midst of this impetuous market. With that said, will today become the third day in a row where the S&P 500 closes above its 50-EMA? That is currently @ 2812.09. As I wrote in an earlier post concerning the 3-5 day confirmation rule, the earliest I would initiate an IFT in this environment would be on the fifth day. Furthermore, it would need to be on increasing strength/volume, and not on a trend of declining weakness/volume. Because today might become Day 3, now is the time to discern any decline in weakness/volume.

BTW, I believe the month of May will become even more emotional as states begin to reopen and then deal with the inevitable spike in COVID-19 cases. Just wait until that makes the headlines. But, we're likely a few weeks away from that. In the meantime, be careful and remain patient!

God Bless :smile:

 

[LTJPFED]

Rod I appreciate the take on where we are. I actually noticed we would have day 3 potentially today. So as we push into the 11-11:30am timeframe should we be looking for that volume strength/weakness to determine a potential IFT? I agree I am nervous about that move as well but I'm looking at it today. Been patient through the whole month of March and April. Yes missed out on this bounce from the lows but oh well.

 

[rangerray]

I am no longer convinced that there will be a spike in the numbers that affects the economy considerably. If anything, the general public has become aware to the point that I think people are truly concerned about avoiding the virus, especially if they are particulary vulnerable to the effects the virus might have on them. Those with less vulnerability will simply play the odds. Work has to commence. People HAVE TO get back to generating income and going about their lives. The economic furnace will be relit based on the efforts of Americans that are fed up, for a multitude of reasons, but mostly because the American Spirit cannot be beaten down.

 

[nasa1974]

I am no longer convinced that there will be a spike in the numbers that affects the economy considerably. If anything, the general public has become aware to the point that I think people are truly concerned about avoiding the virus, especially if they are particulary vulnerable to the effects the virus might have on them. Those with less vulnerability will simply play the odds. Work has to commence. People HAVE TO get back to generating income and going about their lives. The economic furnace will be relit based on the efforts of Americans that are fed up, for a multitude of reasons, but mostly because the American Spirit cannot be beaten down.

I tend to disagree. Yes, most Americans will attempt to continue social distancing but there will be those that will not and they will be the ones that will ruin it for the majority. An example are the people that are protesting and not maintaining social distance nor are wearing masks. Look at the people rushing to the beaches in California and Florida. I expect we will see virus spikes around the country. I just hope we can keep these areas isolated so it doesn't get out of hand. As these, hopefully limited, spikes occur it will keep the economy down because the smart people will not feel comfortable being in crowded shops and stores. I just hope we don't loose more American lives because of stupid people that care more about themselves then the affect it can have on the innocent people around them.

 

[Rod]

So as we push into the 11-11:30am timeframe should we be looking for that volume strength/weakness to determine a potential IFT?

Of course, I won't even contemplate an IFT until Thursday at the earliest. Before then, I would have studied the overall weakness/strength of today's and Wednesday's action as a whole. I will not be focusing on any time period such as 1100-1130. But, if today's action so far is any indicator, an IFT this week is looking less and less likely.

 

[nasa1974]

If you are on the lily pad I can understand not wanting to get back into the game yet. But since I'm already in the game I think I'm going to take a chance and go from 50/50 C/S to 100% S. That still leaves me 1 IFT for April and 2 fresh bullets' for May.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Rod]

Outside of my TSP, I'm fiddling around with FAZ in anticipation of some market selling continuing into/beginning tomorrow. It was near the 52-week low when I bought in today @ 23.6601. I'll see where it goes.

 

[Rod]

Latest from PPT...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa-IZib0tQ4

 

[LTJPFED]

Thanks for the reminder Rod. I needed a gut check this morning and I think this was it. I'm still all in G just biding some time. My patience is wearing thin though lol. He keeps things in perspective imo.

 

[Whipsaw]

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

 

[weatherweenie]

He is still saying the markets are in a danger zone. Advises against taking any long positions.

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

 

[Whipsaw]

He is still saying the markets are in a danger zone. Advises against taking any long positions.

Thanks, I do think we're up against a small pull back; so much for being in for 1 May. Then again...

 

[Rod]

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

As usual, there is a lot to digest in his videos. So, I recommend you watch it on your phone. But overall, he remains bearish, expecting a lot of folks to get sucked in due to FOMO before the push to test the lows. In the meantime, he expects the S&P to push to Tuesday's intraday high of 2,921.15 (it is above that now), and then test strong resistance around 3,000. If successful, he can see the S&P making a push to 3,145 before turning down. He says when the downturn commences, it will do so quickly while blindsiding a lot of folks.

Of course, although he recommends avoiding buying at the critical juncture of tests/resistance, there is money to be made if 3,145 is the ceiling before it hits the floor. It's just a matter of getting lucky making that IFT prior to an up day. I just know that if I was to make an IFT today, Mr. Market would eat my lunch tomorrow. And y'all know I'm right about that. :cheesy:

 

[Rod]

Once again, Mr. Market is reacting on emotions and hope. Not technicals!

It'll likely snap back to reality after investors have fully understood/digested Gilead's purported good news on Remdesivir. I mean, there wasn't even a control group...

The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

At least China's study had a control group. And remember, it showed that patients on the drug did not improve more than those in a control group.

But outside experts in clinical trial design worry that the results, instead of leading to a clear picture of whether the medicine is effective, will instead muddy the waters further.

The main concern, they say, stems from the fact that the Gilead trial expected to read out this week, which was conducted among patients with severe disease, lacks a control group — that is, patients who are randomly assigned to receive the best treatment available, but not remdesivir. As designed, the only randomization is the duration of treatment: either five days or 10 days of drug. Without a true control group of patients, many experts say, it will be difficult to determine whether remdesivir is effective.

“The overall study itself has little or no scientific value since all patients are receiving the drug,” said Steven Nissen, the chief academic officer at the Cleveland Clinic and lead investigator of many trials for heart drugs that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

“The study, as designed, is essentially useless and cannot be used by the FDA for consideration of remdesivir for approval to treat coronavirus,” Nissen said.

Peter Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, called the situation “frustrating.”

“For them to run the trial in severe but not include a control group, it’s just such a waste,” Bach said.

The predicament is symptomatic of one of the biggest problems in medicine: Collecting data quickly can actually slow things down if studies are not designed in a way that gives clear, definitive answers.

Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27/the-world-wants-answers-on-gileads-covid-19-drug-experts-worry-next-studies-may-increase-uncertainty/

I don't think the news warrants today's rally, especially given the limited supply of the drug. But, as we all know too well, Mr. Market will quickly gobble up any bit of "good news" nowadays while ignoring the vast majority of negative economic news. It simply makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's reckless disregard of the technicals will catch up with it sooner or later. A day I look forward to!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Once again, Mr. Market is reacting on emotions and hope. Not technicals!

It'll likely snap back to reality after investors have fully understood/digested Gilead's purported good news on Remdesivir. I mean, there wasn't even a control group...



Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gil...ata-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

At least China's study had a control group. And remember, it showed that patients on the drug did not improve more than those in a control group.



Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27...-worry-next-studies-may-increase-uncertainty/

I don't think the news warrants today's rally, especially given the limited supply of the drug. But, as we all know too well, Mr. Market will quickly gobble up any bit of "good news" nowadays while ignoring the vast majority of negative economic news. It simply makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's reckless disregard of the technicals will catch up with it sooner or later. A day I look forward to!

Yup agreed, not technicals.
But remember that "Irrational Exuberance" still resulted in another 2-3 year HUGE up surge in the late 90's, before reality kicked in.

 

[mdfiasco]

Yup agreed, not technicals.
But remember that "Irrational Exuberance" still resulted in another 2-3 year up surge in the late 90's, before reality kicked in.

Production has been cut by double digits. Production of most hard goods. Support work is still happening: store clerks, Home Depot, etc. But what are they servicing? They're servicing people who are staying home, likely not collecting a paycheck and/or living on credit.

None of this "rally" makes sense. Safe in G until the zombie madness subsides.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Are you buying today, Rod? Above 50 several days but down so far today.

 

[Rod]

Are you buying today, Rod? Above 50 several days but down so far today.

If I do, it will be more about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report than it is about the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. I would think that a blowout report would carry Mr. Market tomorrow. Therefore, I would be leaning more on it than the 50-EMA. But, both may work together hand-in-hand for a positive day tomorrow. Contemplating going either 100 (S) or 30 (C) / 70 (S).

 

[Rod]

In case you haven't seen the "Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index":

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.COVID19

CNBC’s Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index is equal-weighed and currently comprised of 29 companies that are working on testing and treating the coronavirus.
The S&P 500 and the CNBC Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index have moved in near lockstep since the market bottomed on March 23.

The S&P 500 and the CNBC Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index have moved in near lockstep since the market bottomed on March 23. A look at their movement since the March bottom reveals the S&P 500 and the Covid-19 index tend to rise and fall at the same time.

The relationship between the two reveals just how important coronavirus news is to Wall Street investors, who have for weeks said a reliable treatment is key to unleashing financial markets and an eventual return to all-time highs.

Source for quotes: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/cnbc-coronavirus-index-shows-why-the-market-is-rebounding.html