Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

If I do, it will be more about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report than it is about the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. I would think that a blowout report would carry Mr. Market tomorrow. Therefore, I would be leaning more on it than the 50-EMA. But, both may work together hand-in-hand for a positive day tomorrow. Contemplating going either 100 (S) or 30 (C) / 70 (S).

I inadvertently got that backwards. I should have written: 100 (C) or 70 (C) / 30 (S). But, I might also return to 60 (C) / 40 (S). That seemed to have worked for me when I was a buy-n-holder. But overall, the (S) fund does have more to gain in terms of its 59.2371 high set on 20 Feb.

 

[Beester15]

I wish my crystal ball was more clear and definitive on what I should be doing.

 

[LTJPFED]

I inadvertently got that backwards. I should have written: 100 (C) or 70 (C) / 30 (S). But, I might also return to 60 (C) / 40 (S). That seemed to have worked for me when I was a buy-n-holder. But overall, the (S) fund does have more to gain in terms of its 59.2371 high set on 20 Feb.

Probably a stupid question but, would the move be for just a couple day gain or something looking at until the warning signs say to get back to G? I have been looking, probably like everyone who has been in G, to make a move to potentially earn something. Just feel like I need to be ready to move back quickly if this thing starts heading south. But the Fed is doing it's thing so even if we have some pull backs I don't think it will be as far as some of us may have thought it could go. Weird times.

 

[Rod]

As mentioned earlier this morning...

My IFT is about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report combined with the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. One would think that a blowout report would help to carry Mr. Market tomorrow. It just might work hand-in-hand with the 50-EMA for a positive day tomorrow. We shall see!

Effective COB: 70 (C) 30 (S)

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

BTW, I was very nervous to initiate that IFT. So, hopefully that's a rewarding contrarian indicator for tomorrow. :fing02:

 

[mdfiasco]

As mentioned earlier this morning...

My IFT is about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report combined with the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. One would think that a blowout report would help to carry Mr. Market tomorrow. It just might work hand-in-hand with the 50-EMA for a positive day tomorrow. We shall see!

Effective COB: 70 (C) 30 (S)

God Bless :smile:

Agreed.

Let's light this candle.

Edit: either way, I'll be picking up more shares of each than when I sold on Feb 22. Silver lining?

 

[Rod]

I did not mention...

One unknown is AAPL's earnings. It will also report today (along with AMZN) after the closing bell. I just hope it doesn't dampen the expected positive effect of AMZN's earnings. It very well could. That's the chance I am taking.

 

[Rod]

Probably a stupid question but, would the move be for just a couple day gain or something looking at until the warning signs say to get back to G?

My plan is to hold the allocation as long as the S&P 500 remains above its 50-EMA, which currently sets @ 2822.03. That means I am willing to ride it down (at a loss) to whatever the 50-EMA is at the time. But, if it breaks significantly below it, then back to (G) I will be.

 

[mdfiasco]

Rod, what are your thoughts on an unimpressive earnings report based on states late March lockdown dates? Do you think there will be a significant increase in "covid home shopping" prior to Mar 31 to provide an impressive increase in revenue over previous quarters? That's my gamble here: a delivery of unimpressive numbers followed by Friday-before-the-weekend rally buying on the near certainty that next quarter numbers will be dramatic in the home delivery sector...unless the bears pull the price down to further capitalize on those numbers later.

oooooh, the wheel is spinning...00 or 0, red or black...

RE: Apple--I've noticed an inordinately high number of refurb'd Apple offerings on discount website at extraordinary prices. I picked up three refurb'd 256g iPhone X's at 299 each at various sites over the last month (bday presents, happy nieces and nephews) My thoughts are in this lockdown, people are trading up for larger screens/processing power based on wildly increased screen time, so Apple has liquidated refurb'd stuff to authorized resellers at cut rates to limit official apple products to higher echelon offerings. I suspect next quarter numbers will be impressive but todays may be humdrum normal.

 

[Rod]

Do you think there will be a significant increase in "covid home shopping" prior to Mar 31 to provide an impressive increase in revenue over previous quarters?

Assuming you are talking about AMZN...

I am thinking there will be... especially worldwide, where there were lock downs as early as Jan.

 

[Rod]

AMZN beats on revenue ($75.45B vs. $73.61B est.), but misses on EPS ($5.01 vs. $6.25 est.).

AAPL beats on revenue ($58.3B vs. $54.54B est.) and beats on EPS ($2.55 vs $2.26 est.).

We shall see how tomorrow plays out.

 

[mdfiasco]

AMZN beats on revenue ($75.45B vs. $73.61B est.), but misses on EPS ($5.01 vs. $6.25 est.).

AAPL beats on revenue ($58.3B vs. $54.54B est.) and beats on EPS ($2.55 vs $2.26 est.).

We shall see how tomorrow plays out.

That's more of a bump than I expected, nice call Rod. Let's hope there's a healthy bump across tomorrow.

 

[Rod]

That's more of a bump than I expected, nice call Rod. Let's hope there's a healthy bump across tomorrow.

I am a bit nervous because...

Amazon said it expects to spend its entire $4 billion operating profit in Q2 on coronavirus-related expenses including “hundreds of millions” to develop its own testing capability for the virus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/amazon-amzn-q1-2020-earnings.html

AMZN futures aren't that great now... down 5%. Maybe AMZN's conference call (which is underway) will give that a boost.

 

[Rod]

Of course... now that I am 70 (C) 30 (S), Cramer is saying... "The market is stretched!"... "Ring the register!" :cheesy: He's more emotional than Mr. Market!

(I am making an attempt not to act upon emotion by following the 3-5 day confirmation rule.)

He did make a good point... one that I thought of myself yesterday. And that point is this- remdesivir is now baked in, and Mr. Market likely won't receive any further lift from it. Does that now mean earnings will once again rule and move the market in one direction or another? Cramer seems to think so. I guess we'll just have to see.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Maybe fundamentals will start to drive the market a bit more but the Fed won't allow it I bet.

 

[mdfiasco]

Maybe fundamentals will start to drive the market a bit more but the Fed won't allow it I bet.

After the AAPL and AMZN reports came out, all I have are hopes and dreams. Tomorrow may ride solely on emotion from investors and the hopes of going into the weekend 'up'.

Broken record, but I'm happy to have more shares of each at midnight than on Feb 22. Long game, engaged.

 

[Rod]

Maybe fundamentals will start to drive the market a bit more but the Fed won't allow it I bet.

Because Mr. Market has rallied +30% off of the 23 Mar lows, I would not be surprised if Daddy Fed allows Mr. Market to consolidate at least 10% in the very near future. I just hope that now I am in, that I do not get caught up in that... as I am willing to ride the S&P 500 to just below its 50 EMA. That is currently about a 3% decline. We know all too well that a 3% decline can occur on any given day.

If my IFT on the 3-5 confirmation rule does not end up working out for me, at least I will then know that I cannot rely upon it in this environment. But, I had to at least make an attempt at it.

 

[Rod]

I was looking for a handy dandy earnings calendar website which specifically lists when the earnings report would be released- before or after the bell. So far, this is ideal:

https://stocktwits.com/discover/earnings-calendar/2020-04-27

 

[Rod]

Well, it looks like today's IFT is a bust. Of course, now that I am in the game, there won't be a turn-around in the afternoon. With my luck, this is the beginning of that 10% consolidation I mentioned in an earlier post. I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 closes below its 50-EMA which is currently 2,822.63.

PROVE ME WRONG MR. MARKET!

At any rate, hopefully Coolhand's bullish NAAIIM report soon comes to fruition.

 

[rangerray]

My gut feeling is that you'll be very happy by the end of the day and Monday will be great too.