Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Sounds like you are doing well with it. Yeah... I paid cash for that ZT... just like I'm saving up to pay cash for my new truck. As Dave Ramsey says, "Cash is king!" :fing02:

I sunk a small fortune in a John Deere Z930M. It's a 48", but it lets me get into smaller yards in my neighborhood. I'm not missing the extra width because it mows really fast. I have a Stihl commercial edger, trimmer and blower. And that covers everything I do. I edge, mow and blow. No flower beds, pruning hedges or leaves. I tell my customers that what they save with me they can spend with a neighborhood kid to do the rest. It's working so far and I have more than I can handle while I'm still working that other job with the government.

I don't blame you for upgrading, though. I'd have given up with that other mower a lot sooner than you did, but you probably wanted to squeeze every penny out of it if you're like me. None of that stuff is cheap anymore, regardless if it's consumer grade or commercial.

 

[Rod]

Of course, everyone has an opinion...

Headline reads,

The force that’s propelled the stock market rally will exhaust itself this week

Some excerpts:

The force that has propelled the stock market rally is about to exhaust itself this week. That force is related to a short-squeeze.

Exhaustion

According to our algorithms at The Arora Report, the short-squeeze-related force that has propelled this stock market rally will likely end this week. There should be downward pressure on the stock market after the short-squeeze ends, unless there are new triggers to the upside such as medical developments against the coronavirus, pleasant surprises in what companies say about the future in their earnings reports and conference calls, more monetary stimulus from the Fed and more fiscal stimulus from the government.

Should you buy or sell?

Bear markets are characterized by sharp rallies. If a cure is found soon, the rally will continue. In the absence of a cure, the probability is high that the rally will fail.

Source:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-force-thats-propelled-the-stock-market-rally-will-exhaust-itself-this-week-2020-04-13


Of course, I'm keeping an eye on the moving averages. If Mr. Market can at least climb above the 50-DMA, and then remain above it for at least a few days, then I will likely make an IFT. Target areas for 50-DMA... give/take:

S&P: 2,909

Dow: 25,058.00

Naz: 8,453.00

God Bless :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

Of course, there is the rising wedge/bear flag, both of which should break down.

 

[rangerray]

I'm seeing some signs that earnings are better than expected. Also, I think folks are counting on the coronavirus numbers improving at this point, coupled with the fact that there's more grumbling of the US getting back to work. I'm wondering if bad earnings from here on out will weigh that heavily, as many believe that the only reason business is bad is because of the virus. I suppose it remains to be seen how many small businesses successfully weather the storm, but right now it seems to be an aire of possitivity.

 

[Rod]

I'm wondering if bad earnings from here on out will weigh that heavily, as many believe that the only reason business is bad is because of the virus.

Heck, Mr. Market shrugged off the record unemployment numbers. It would not surprise me at all for it to also shrug off bad earnings because it knows Daddy Fed will continue to prop it up. Not a free market at all. But, it is what we have to contend with.

 

[Valkyrie]

Heck, Mr. Market shrugged off the record unemployment numbers. It would not surprise me at all for it to also shrug off bad earnings because it knows Daddy Fed will continue to prop it up. Not a free market at all. But, it is what we have to contend with.

"shrugged off the record unemployment numbers"

similar to how the market reacted during most of the clinton yrs. market saw low unemployment as low inflation as low interest rates for borrowing and putting that money into the market.

 

[Rod]

Is Mr. Market performing a Fake Fade?

It likes to do that.

Maybe reacting to the negative BA news?

 

[Whipsaw]

Fake Fade? Meaning... temporary fade and then resume rally? Conveniently timed before noon.

 

[Rod]

Fake Fade? Meaning... temporary fade and then resume rally? Conveniently timed before noon.

Exactly. It also seems to come around 1500-1530 before moving higher into the close. Total manipulation.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Exactly. It also seems to come around 1500-1530 before moving higher into the close. Total manipulation.

Are you saying that TSP deadline is affecting market behavior before our TSP Deadline? That does not seem plausible. What percent of market share do TSPers own? Most TSP accounts are buy and hold anyway.

 

[Rod]

Are you saying that TSP deadline is affecting market behavior before our TSP Deadline? That does not seem plausible. What percent of market share do TSPers own? Most TSP accounts are buy and hold anyway.

Not at all. Just an observation.

 

[Rod]

Do you know what this market action reminds me of???

Reminds me of the Jan/Feb market action when I was warning y'all about the coronavirus while Mr. Market was making its way to new highs.

It just doesn't feel right. I'm hearing that short squeezes are to blame.

But, if the S&P can manage to climb above its 50-DMA of 2,892.00 for a few days (that 3 to 5 day confirmation rule), then I just might have to make an IFT while maintaining a hair-trigger IFT back to (G).

 

[Rod]

I recommend taking the time to watch this video...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8135GBFD5g0&feature=em-uploademail

 

[Happy_Trails]

Not at all. Just an observation.

Ok, just wanted to make sure. Don't think MM cares much about TSP participant's miniscule market share or participant's pre deadline moves.

 

[Rod]

I created a new thread on the topic of me buying a new truck. Let's continue the discussion there:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-lounge/34401-buying-new-truck-post637939.html#post637939

 

[Rod]

So, will there be a bounce tomorrow... given that we end the day down 2% - 3%? Chances are 50/50. If you should decide to chance it, I wish you success. I am sticking with my DMA game plan as I mentioned in a recent post.

 

[Rod]

Headline reads:

The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: ‘The economy is clearly in ruins here’

"... worse than Wall Street feared." How can that even be when amateurs such as myself realize (and have been harping on) the economical implications of COVID-19??? I've been warning of a global economic shock since 23 Feb: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/349-rods-account-talk-87.html

Article's Key Points:

KEY POINTS

Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed the hit to the economy from the coronavirus was deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than expected.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever in government data, and New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, declining a shocking 78.2%.

“The economy is clearly in ruins here,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.

Beware of more intervention from Daddy Fed.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/the-economic-data-is-even-worse-than-wall-street-feared-the-economy-is-clearly-in-ruins-here.html

 

[rangerray]

Well, since I got sidetracked with a new toy that came in the mail yesterday, my quick in and out has me 100% in the S Fund today. I forgot about the noon deadline yesterday and was planning to bank a good one-day return, then continue waiting with the rest of you for that retest of the lows. Long story short, since I’m down that much, I’m letting it ride for one more day.

Why, oh why does this have to feel like a hand of blackjack where you’re just hoping the dealer isn’t holding a face card?

I know the answer we bring in on ourselves like I did. But, I’m not crying; I’m just hoping and having faith in tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[Happy_Trails]

Well, since I got sidetracked with a new toy that came in the mail yesterday, my quick in and out has me 100% in the S Fund today. I forgot about the noon deadline yesterday and was planning to bank a good one-day return, then continue waiting with the rest of you for that retest of the lows. Long story short, since I’m down that much, I’m letting it ride for one more day.

Why, oh why does this have to feel like a hand of blackjack where you’re just hoping the dealer isn’t holding a face card?

I know the answer we bring in on ourselves like I did. But, I’m not crying; I’m just hoping and having faith in tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

On any given day, it really is a crap shoot.

 

[mdfiasco]

Feb 23 was my magic day as well...when the Executive Office continued to deny the urgency of Covid-19 in the face of facts, was the day I saved my TSP from tanking. (dramatic but I stand by the sentiment)

... How can that even be when amateurs such as myself realize (and have been harping on) the economical implications of COVID-19??? I've been warning of a global economic shock since 23 Feb:

because you were simply paying attention and logically digesting the information.

99% of my (at work) friends were downplaying this from the beginning of January. When I got back from UK in early February and suggested I self-quarantine, my chain of command balked, quoting certain pundits and the Executive Branch's denial of urgency.

The economy is going to mimic the positivity of the US exec branch as long as they can ride that gamble...when the Fed infusions (or the hints of continued stimuli) come to an end, the market will be forced to correct...by then the April and May unemployment numbers will have skyrocketed and the veil will be pulled off this lipsticked pig. This, to me, explains the frantic urgency of the Executive Branch to get the "economy open" asap. When the unemployment numbers come out, May rents/mortgages are due, and credit starts to dry up...another cliff.