Rod
Well-known member
Indeed it is.
For my Brothers and Sisters in Christ... have a most blessed Resurrection Sunday! :smile:
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Rod's Account Talk
- Thread starter Rod
- Start date
Indeed it is.
For my Brothers and Sisters in Christ... have a most blessed Resurrection Sunday! :smile:
Thanks. I kept thinking, and saying, today was Friday because of the market being closed tomorrow.
at: :laugh:
Rod
Well-known member
Interesting...
To quote Cramer on today's Mad Money,
"This Fed move probably makes it so we will not revisit the lows, given the fact that J. Powell is just there standing in there for you."
Of course, as with anything, take it with a grain of salt. He could be right... he could be wrong. We shall see in due time.
To quote Cramer on today's Mad Money,
"This Fed move probably makes it so we will not revisit the lows, given the fact that J. Powell is just there standing in there for you."
Of course, as with anything, take it with a grain of salt. He could be right... he could be wrong. We shall see in due time.
StockSurfer
New member
Based on the current trend of stock price recovery, by May 1 stocks should be back to positive for the year.. I guess by then or shortly thereafter the sports stadiums will be filled again, the restaurants will be crowded, the airlines will be filled with travelers looking forward to adventures, the hotels will be back to normal, the cruise ships will be full, the malls will be back to pre-covid levels.. (I guess everyone but me, i’m scared of suffocating with this virus so will avoid all of the above) Most of the services that support all those industries will be back as well, most of the small businesses will have weathered the storm ... and most of those that were laid off will have been rehired... No??? Then I guess the stock market looks forward, and all of the economic “pain” From all of the above will have been remedied by actions from the Fed and the last round of legislation... Is this correct?
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Rod
Well-known member
Followed soon after by The Second Wave of COVID-19.
There seems to be dark forces at work (ahem... The Fed) that is force-feeding Mr. Market "artificial fillers" in order to prevent it from doing what it would naturally do otherwise. And that is to retest the 23 Mar lows.
But, will the force-feeding succeed?
The Fed can throw all sorts of stuff at the financial crisis. But, what about the biological crisis that is certain to continue (and re-ignite) into the Fall? There will likely be a COVID-20, then 21, then 22, then 23, etc., etc.
There's all this talk about a light at the end of the tunnel. Sure, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. But, how do we know it's not the light of an oncoming train?
My end game is capital preservation. As of now, my TSP is down 0.79%. And that's only because I tried to catch one of the first relief rallies, but was a day early. I quickly learned then that there was no timing (or taming) this beast. Although I did have some success in the (F) fund afterward. But for the most part, I've been riding it out in (G).
One thing I must remain open to is the possibility that the 23 Mar lows will not be retested. At least not as soon as I had hoped. Dow 25,000 (50-DMA) might convince me of that in the interim.
I've always thought that the Q1 earnings reports would push Mr. Market a lot lower. But, I don't know if I am convinced of that anymore. Especially seeing how it reacted to the record unemployment numbers... two weeks in a row! Might have to wait until at least Q2 for the economy to catch up with the virus. Perhaps then a retest will come?
But, going back to the original topic... it's a Fed thing. The Fed is keeping Mr. Market artificially propped up. Always has... always will. Until it is abolished or fails. But, that won't anytime soon.
If anyone reading this has faith in The Fed (hook, line, and sinker), then maybe you should pull up a seat and feast at its table. I, for one, don't possess such faith. In The Fed, that is. Therefore, I shall continue to hibernate in (G). But, don't let me keep ya from enjoying the deceitful "fruits" of The Fed. :bandit:
There seems to be dark forces at work (ahem... The Fed) that is force-feeding Mr. Market "artificial fillers" in order to prevent it from doing what it would naturally do otherwise. And that is to retest the 23 Mar lows.
But, will the force-feeding succeed?
The Fed can throw all sorts of stuff at the financial crisis. But, what about the biological crisis that is certain to continue (and re-ignite) into the Fall? There will likely be a COVID-20, then 21, then 22, then 23, etc., etc.
There's all this talk about a light at the end of the tunnel. Sure, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. But, how do we know it's not the light of an oncoming train?
My end game is capital preservation. As of now, my TSP is down 0.79%. And that's only because I tried to catch one of the first relief rallies, but was a day early. I quickly learned then that there was no timing (or taming) this beast. Although I did have some success in the (F) fund afterward. But for the most part, I've been riding it out in (G).
One thing I must remain open to is the possibility that the 23 Mar lows will not be retested. At least not as soon as I had hoped. Dow 25,000 (50-DMA) might convince me of that in the interim.
I've always thought that the Q1 earnings reports would push Mr. Market a lot lower. But, I don't know if I am convinced of that anymore. Especially seeing how it reacted to the record unemployment numbers... two weeks in a row! Might have to wait until at least Q2 for the economy to catch up with the virus. Perhaps then a retest will come?
But, going back to the original topic... it's a Fed thing. The Fed is keeping Mr. Market artificially propped up. Always has... always will. Until it is abolished or fails. But, that won't anytime soon.
If anyone reading this has faith in The Fed (hook, line, and sinker), then maybe you should pull up a seat and feast at its table. I, for one, don't possess such faith. In The Fed, that is. Therefore, I shall continue to hibernate in (G). But, don't let me keep ya from enjoying the deceitful "fruits" of The Fed. :bandit:
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DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Glad to see you have a great sense of humor. :smile: People will want to venture out.... but I don't think tons of people will be clamoring into crowded restaurants. These 40 days or so will have changed people's habits...at least for a half year or so. Some folks will wear masks, and continue to be weary....until a vaccine comes out....that would be me. But at least I will enjoy going out to the river to day camp and Barbeque with very close family members!
As for the market, no telling....she's rather fickle! Lots of mood swings!!! Lots of ups and downs! Probably much worse than menopause.... plenty of hot flashes too! and whoa to all the best laid plans of mice and Gubmint! The fixes might be a bit rough....in the end, but right now the market is definitely getting pumped up. Eventually need to figure out when to jump in for a one-two day nibble.... timing is tough and dangerous....and its gonna be easy to slip into a hole!
Best wishes to you!
I knew I was confused yesterday re: what darned day it was. lol. So yeah, Mondays open will be fun after this weekends inevitable bland dystopian madness.
To Rods point about the unemployment numbers, totally spot on and I'd add once the March, April, and May numbers are official and codified by USBLS, things will finally be revealed for what they are right now : Dire for non-salaried workers. $1200.00 is useless as a bailout for the 49% living paycheck to paycheck-realistically that's two car payments in 2020. Rents aren't being paid, car notes aren't being paid, credit cards aren't being paid, and so on and so on up the chain until yachts are being repossessed. Oh it's gonna be a wild ride financially through May and June unless there all debt forgiveness/delay for the bad months or an aid package so large we can't even imagine it.
To DreamboatAnnies point re: venturing out if the quarantines are lifted. You're right, peoples habits have changed, some permanently. But people are clamoring to get out, it's not normal for healthy social humans to be cooped up like this. There will be much hugging and handshaking and beers all around, then the second wave will hit and we'll be right back here, only worse because the Executive Branch won't risk the double-tanking the economy on a second shut-in and I don't blame them. More elderly and infirm deaths will come on that second round. We've seen this before with many pandemics. The plague, obvi orders of magnitude worse than Covid, bounced around England for several years. That was when cities had walls and quarantines were enforced by the sword, coincidentally that was also when a few nuns figured out wearing face masks soaked in boiled water might prevent transmission. This is 'just another flu' to a majority who still believe this is being hyped by the media. This will continue killing our parents/peers after we 'open back up'. Five in my bldg alone died last week from Covid-related pneumonia, and that was after strict cleaning and skeleton-crew procedures. Unless current FDA guidelines for vetting a vaccine are lifted, it will take one year to create a viable vaccine, and that's assuming everything goes perfect with trials.
Re: Stocksurfer calling the arenas, cruise ships, et al as opening wide. I think we're going to see some hefty class-action lawsuits soon on those industries. I've already bought 4 plane tickets to destinations OCONUS after June because they're crazy cheap (Ecuador from IAD for $100?!?!), but I'm betting on those being cancelled by the airlines. Those industries will be mandated to try social distancing or other methods to reduce viral transmission which will make the experience cumbersome at first. So cumbersome, non die-hard fans will walk away back to their TV sets, or into their cars for travel, or give up on cruises altogether. Small business are going not going to weather this well unless they get string-free aid packages. Most small businesses can't or won't get on the hook for an aid package loan, let alone go revenue-free for a month or more as they have. I disagree with you there, we're going to see so many small businesses across so many industries go belly up our heads will spin. Further, I'd say we'll see huge businesses fall off the map or get hoovered up into massive conglomerates. Remember Hostess in 2012? Twinkies are an American institution, and they didn't start making those again for 10 months. Did you ever think you wouldn't be able to buy a Twinkie? Get ready for some more of that.
Oh...gonna be such a wild ride unless things change within days of now. May rent is due in 20 days and most didn't pay for April. Better pray for an Easter miracle.
To Rods point about the unemployment numbers, totally spot on and I'd add once the March, April, and May numbers are official and codified by USBLS, things will finally be revealed for what they are right now : Dire for non-salaried workers. $1200.00 is useless as a bailout for the 49% living paycheck to paycheck-realistically that's two car payments in 2020. Rents aren't being paid, car notes aren't being paid, credit cards aren't being paid, and so on and so on up the chain until yachts are being repossessed. Oh it's gonna be a wild ride financially through May and June unless there all debt forgiveness/delay for the bad months or an aid package so large we can't even imagine it.
To DreamboatAnnies point re: venturing out if the quarantines are lifted. You're right, peoples habits have changed, some permanently. But people are clamoring to get out, it's not normal for healthy social humans to be cooped up like this. There will be much hugging and handshaking and beers all around, then the second wave will hit and we'll be right back here, only worse because the Executive Branch won't risk the double-tanking the economy on a second shut-in and I don't blame them. More elderly and infirm deaths will come on that second round. We've seen this before with many pandemics. The plague, obvi orders of magnitude worse than Covid, bounced around England for several years. That was when cities had walls and quarantines were enforced by the sword, coincidentally that was also when a few nuns figured out wearing face masks soaked in boiled water might prevent transmission. This is 'just another flu' to a majority who still believe this is being hyped by the media. This will continue killing our parents/peers after we 'open back up'. Five in my bldg alone died last week from Covid-related pneumonia, and that was after strict cleaning and skeleton-crew procedures. Unless current FDA guidelines for vetting a vaccine are lifted, it will take one year to create a viable vaccine, and that's assuming everything goes perfect with trials.
Re: Stocksurfer calling the arenas, cruise ships, et al as opening wide. I think we're going to see some hefty class-action lawsuits soon on those industries. I've already bought 4 plane tickets to destinations OCONUS after June because they're crazy cheap (Ecuador from IAD for $100?!?!), but I'm betting on those being cancelled by the airlines. Those industries will be mandated to try social distancing or other methods to reduce viral transmission which will make the experience cumbersome at first. So cumbersome, non die-hard fans will walk away back to their TV sets, or into their cars for travel, or give up on cruises altogether. Small business are going not going to weather this well unless they get string-free aid packages. Most small businesses can't or won't get on the hook for an aid package loan, let alone go revenue-free for a month or more as they have. I disagree with you there, we're going to see so many small businesses across so many industries go belly up our heads will spin. Further, I'd say we'll see huge businesses fall off the map or get hoovered up into massive conglomerates. Remember Hostess in 2012? Twinkies are an American institution, and they didn't start making those again for 10 months. Did you ever think you wouldn't be able to buy a Twinkie? Get ready for some more of that.
Oh...gonna be such a wild ride unless things change within days of now. May rent is due in 20 days and most didn't pay for April. Better pray for an Easter miracle.
Rod
Well-known member
Happy Resurrection Day! :smile:
"25) He (Thomas) heard the accounts of each brother’s interaction with the Lord.
The Other Disciples: 'We have seen the Lord!'
Thomas: 'Until I see His hands, feel the wounds of the nails, and put my hand to His side, I won’t believe what you are saying.'
26) Eight days later, they gathered again behind locked doors; and Jesus reappeared. This time Thomas was with them.
Jesus: 'May each one of you be at peace.'
27) He drew close to Thomas.
Jesus: 'Reach out and touch Me. See the punctures in My hands; reach out your hand, and put it to My side; leave behind your faithlessness, and believe.'
Thomas (filled with emotion): 28) 'You are the one True God and Lord of my life!'
Jesus: 29) 'Thomas, you have faith because you have seen Me. Blessed are all those who never see Me and yet they still believe!'
30) Jesus performed many other wondrous signs that are not written in this book.
31) These accounts are recorded so that you, too, might believe that Jesus is the Anointed, the Liberating King, the Son of God, because believing grants you the life He came to share!"
John 20:25-31
"But without faith it is impossible to please Him, for he who comes to God must believe that He is, and that He is a rewarder of those who diligently seek Him."
Hebrews 11:6
And this is The Gospel, or The Good News...
"1) Now I declare to you, brothers (and sisters), the Good News which I preached to you, which also you received, in which you also stand,
2) by which also you are saved, if you hold firmly the word which I preached to you—unless you believed in vain.
3) For I delivered to you first of all that which I also received: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures,
4) that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures."
1 Corinthians 15:1-4
+Peace><> :smile:
"25) He (Thomas) heard the accounts of each brother’s interaction with the Lord.
The Other Disciples: 'We have seen the Lord!'
Thomas: 'Until I see His hands, feel the wounds of the nails, and put my hand to His side, I won’t believe what you are saying.'
26) Eight days later, they gathered again behind locked doors; and Jesus reappeared. This time Thomas was with them.
Jesus: 'May each one of you be at peace.'
27) He drew close to Thomas.
Jesus: 'Reach out and touch Me. See the punctures in My hands; reach out your hand, and put it to My side; leave behind your faithlessness, and believe.'
Thomas (filled with emotion): 28) 'You are the one True God and Lord of my life!'
Jesus: 29) 'Thomas, you have faith because you have seen Me. Blessed are all those who never see Me and yet they still believe!'
30) Jesus performed many other wondrous signs that are not written in this book.
31) These accounts are recorded so that you, too, might believe that Jesus is the Anointed, the Liberating King, the Son of God, because believing grants you the life He came to share!"
John 20:25-31
"But without faith it is impossible to please Him, for he who comes to God must believe that He is, and that He is a rewarder of those who diligently seek Him."
Hebrews 11:6
And this is The Gospel, or The Good News...
"1) Now I declare to you, brothers (and sisters), the Good News which I preached to you, which also you received, in which you also stand,
2) by which also you are saved, if you hold firmly the word which I preached to you—unless you believed in vain.
3) For I delivered to you first of all that which I also received: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures,
4) that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures."
1 Corinthians 15:1-4
+Peace><> :smile:
Attachments
rangerray
Active member
Except, we've all been conditioned to buy low. When the market goes through one of the worst times in the decade, people start wanting to buy, regardless of what the fundamentals look like. I wish I'd went with my gut and bougt during the last week of March, but I missed it. I was too scared, too worried about preserving what I have this close to retirement. But, for the average guy out there that might not pay so much attention, this has seemed like a good time to buy. I've ran with the educated herd that's saying that another retest of the lows is likely. Whether that's days or weeks ahead, no one will take that bet. Could it be the flurry of bad news to come means that people start pouring their money into equities?
Rod
Well-known member
If you are relying upon your TSP for retirement (I am not), then it's best to resist the urge to catch any relief rallies on gut instincts. If I was relying upon my TSP for retirement, I would not dip my toe into the waters until we are above the 200-DMA through implementing the 3 to 5 day closing confirmation rule:
The 3 to 5 day closing confirmation rule says not to trust a breakdown or breakout until you see 3 to 5 closes below support or above resistance.
But, that's just me. I tend to be extremely conservative during times like this- even when I won't be relying upon my TSP for retirement.
rangerray
Active member
I'm fighting the urge to go against what you suggest, but so far have been successful :smile: My comments aren't really directed at you, but moreso to the headlines you pointed out. yea, I'm counting on my TSP to make a better life for me in retirement. I don't want to have to pick up a second job to make ends meet. I have something lined up for "play money," but that will be a want to job, not a need to job.
Rod
Well-known member
Oh yeah, I understand that. :smile:
I don't get paid to say this... but, maybe you might benefit from subscribing to one of the premium services? That would take out all of the guesswork on your part and give you a system to follow. I would think that would alleviate a lot of stress for folks. Heck, RevShark's system was up 4.1% as of 31 Mar. That's outstanding in this environment. Might be up even more now.
ravensfan
Well-known member
Hey rangerray, you are talking my language when you made the remark about a "want to job, not a need to job". Six years ago, I decided to take on one of those want to jobs, having retired 3 years earlier and being bored out of my mind with my wife still working. I opted to get my licence and certifications and drive a school bus. Granted it is not for everyone, but has been very rewarding for me. Being around young people can be very invigorating for an old guy like myself, the pay is not bad and the work schedule, a few hours in the morning and a few hours in the afternoon, plus summers off for traveling, schweeeeeet. Anyway, just thought I would throw that out there if you are thinking about a "want to job".
Rod
Well-known member
Likewise. I have a part-time gig at the local airport. Don't need the money, but it keeps me busy. Especially during the winter months when I am not working my 8.58 acres as hard. Right now, I am putting those earnings toward paying cash for a new (or used... < 3 years old) truck. My 2001 GMC Sierra has nearly 261,000 miles on it. I did put a re-manufactured transmission in it around Nov 2016. So, I am done sinking cash into it on major repairs.
rangerray
Active member
I'm going to mow a few yards locally. Perhaps a few commercial properties. I already have commercial-grade equipment and everything I need, unless I take out an insurance policy. I like cutting grass. It's sort of a mindless activity, I can give local folks a huge break over the cost of the big companies, and I can work really hard in the mornings and take off early in the day. Best of all, I'll be my own boss.
Rod
Well-known member
I'd love to be able to do that. But, my ailments don't allow it. In the summer of 2018, I demoed so many zero turns before I settled on the Ferris 2100Z (61") because of its comfort/adjustable suspension springs. But, I still come away with a heckuva whiplash from time to time. I mow 5 of my 8.58 acres. Takes me about 3.5 hrs. I do it over 2 days.
But, guess what I had before I bought that ZT? I was using a Craftsman residential 42" that I bought back in 2006 when we lived on a little more than 1/2 acre. I used that to mow 5 acres for 3 years (2015-2018) before it finally crapped out on me. Guess how long it took me to mow with that? 10.5 hrs. :laugh: I can't believe I put up with that for that long. But, I did.
Happy_Trails
Active member
I like the idea of the 3-5 day closing confirmation rule in conjunction with 200 day SMA. Kind of sounds like a prove it rule.
rangerray
Active member
I'd love to be able to do that. But, my ailments don't allow it. In the summer of 2018, I demoed so many zero turns before I settled on the Ferris 2100Z (61") because of its comfort/adjustable suspension springs. But, I still come away with a heckuva whiplash from time to time. I mow 5 of my 8.58 acres. Takes me about 3.5 hrs. I do it over 2 days.
But, guess what I had before I bought that ZT? I was using a Craftsman residential 42" that I bought back in 2006 when we lived on a little more than 1/2 acre. I used that to mow 5 acres for 3 years (2015-2018) before it finally crapped out on me. Guess how long it took me to mow with that? 10.5 hrs. :laugh: I can't believe I put up with that for that long. But, I did.
I sunk a small fortune in a John Deere Z930M. It's a 48", but it lets me get into smaller yards in my neighborhood. I'm not missing the extra width because it mows really fast. I have a Stihl commercial edger, trimmer and blower. And that covers everything I do. I edge, mow and blow. No flower beds, pruning hedges or leaves. I tell my customers that what they save with me they can spend with a neighborhood kid to do the rest. It's working so far and I have more than I can handle while I'm still working that other job with the government.
I don't blame you for upgrading, though. I'd have given up with that other mower a lot sooner than you did, but you probably wanted to squeeze every penny out of it if you're like me. None of that stuff is cheap anymore, regardless if it's consumer grade or commercial.
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