Rod's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Buy American Coffee! Black Rifle Coffee Co.

 

[LTJPFED]

Buy American Coffee! Black Rifle Coffee Co.

It is great coffee!! Our favorite.

 

[Rod]

My favorite coffee is Community Coffee's "Coffee and Chicory." I've been drinking it since my wife's uncle sent me some in 2009 while I was deployed to Iraq.

 

[wahinepio]

Thank you Rod for pointing to the Pivot Point Trading vid from Nuut. (that was you right, or CH. Sorry if I'm posting wrong. cant go back. You are all SO excellent!!) However your Seeking Alpha link of 3/29 was an eye opener. Both help to confirm grave hesitation. Be out for awhile and definitely heeding your caution signals. Thanks for coming back on btw.

 

[wahinepio]

Aloha Mcqlives, thanks for pointing out Nuut's posts. I get turned around in here and would've def not found that. I thoroughly appreciate y'alls expertise and am ashamed to admit I have to look up everything y'all share. But hey maybe I'll learn something by the time the economy shapes back up? Not holding my breath. Looks bad, downright SCARY.

 

[Rod]

...am ashamed to admit I have to look up everything y'all share. But hey maybe I'll learn something by the time the economy shapes back up? Not holding my breath. Looks bad, downright SCARY.

We all had to start somewhere... as you are first now doing. There is no shame in that at all. Anyways, I'm still looking stuff up myself. Remember, a good investor is always learning, and sharing with others what they've learned.

 

[Rod]

As of now, weekend futures aren't looking too bad. Dow is down 125:

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street

Although I'm waiting for the lows to be retested, I'm contemplating if I want to position myself for the "Cuomo FOMO" rally that I wrote about on 1 Apr. There is already talk of the case count slowing in NY (see link below). Might even be a mini rally off of that news should it become official anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1246160171249917952

But, the hospitalization/death rate will lag that and purportedly peak in 2 weeks. Furthermore, as the case count slows in NY, it will rise substantially in other states such as LA, FL, CA, and TX, to name a few. Therefore, it will be a short-lived rally.

So, when might Mr. Market react to (and likely rally to) the news that NY has peaked? As of now, (and subject to change), it could be the week of 20-24 Apr. Hopefully we'll have a retest of the lows by then. If so, a lot of us would have already positioned ourselves to catch the "Cuomo FOMO" rally.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Last week, the talking heads said that NY's peak was likely 2 weeks away- the reason for my last post. Now there is talk of NY possibly already hitting that peak...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

New York State reported 594 new coronavirus deaths on Sunday, fewer than 630 on Saturday, marking the first daily decline in coronavirus-related deaths, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo.

“Incoming data suggests NY state might peak sooner than Cuomo’s optimistic case,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, said in a note to clients.

Perhaps we are now seeing that "Cuomo FOMO" rally. If so, I'll simply miss out because my chasing days are over with. At any rate, if NY is indeed peaking, then expect the news to shift its focus away from NY and on to the nation's newest hot spots, thus renewing negative sentiment.

As of now, weekend futures aren't looking too bad. Dow is down 125:

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street

Although I'm waiting for the lows to be retested, I'm contemplating if I want to position myself for the "Cuomo FOMO" rally that I wrote about on 1 Apr. There is already talk of the case count slowing in NY (see link below). Might even be a mini rally off of that news should it become official anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1246160171249917952

But, the hospitalization/death rate will lag that and purportedly peak in 2 weeks. Furthermore, as the case count slows in NY, it will rise substantially in other states such as LA, FL, CA, and TX, to name a few. Therefore, it will be a short-lived rally.

So, when might Mr. Market react to (and likely rally to) the news that NY has peaked? As of now, (and subject to change), it could be the week of 20-24 Apr. Hopefully we'll have a retest of the lows by then. If so, a lot of us would have already positioned ourselves to catch the "Cuomo FOMO" rally.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Remember back in Jan and Feb when I was screaming from the top of my lungs that the global "sky was falling" during China's coronavirus crisis, but no one paid any attention because they were mesmerized by The Bull?

Well, I'm bellowing again.

Be careful out there.

 

[Rod]

My money is on a W-shaped recovery.

And we're nearly half way there... V.

Now, get ready for the second V in the near future.

A W-shaped recession is painful because many investors, who jump back into the markets after they believe the economy has found a bottom, end up getting burned twice—once on the way down, and again after the false recovery.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/w-shaped-recovery.asp

 

[Beester15]

I think you are right. Just don't understand what is driving this market up when all indications show that we are not out of the woods yet and the economy is grinding to a halt.

 

[mdfiasco]

I think you are right. Just don't understand what is driving this market up when all indications show that we are not out of the woods yet and the economy is grinding to a halt.

Bullshit. That is what is driving it up. Bullshit from everywhere except the epidemiologists.

 

[blueroadster]

I think you are right. Just don't understand what is driving this market up when all indications show that we are not out of the woods yet and the economy is grinding to a halt.

My take would be a pump and dump. Probably just waiting for the six-month SPXU chart to complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.

 

[blueroadster]

Bullshit. That is what is driving it up. Bullshit from everywhere except the epidemiologists.

Agreed. Here is a link for context on Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus

 

[Rod]

I think you are right. Just don't understand what is driving this market up when all indications show that we are not out of the woods yet and the economy is grinding to a halt.

Blame it on the algos/machine trading reacting to oil and such. Oil was up then down to nearly 7% today. Algos love (or don't love ) that stuff. But, after waking from my afternoon nap, I was glad to see that Mr. Market closed down... although ever so slightly.

 

[Rod]

Do you hear that???

That's the sound of Mr. Market trying to suck in the suckers. Don't be one of them. :Flush:

 

[Tsunami]

Do you hear that???

That's the sound of Mr. Market trying to suck in the suckers. Don't be one of them. :Flush:

Yep, I now count 4 waves complete of wave 5 of C, so just one more wave up into the close is needed for a potential significant top. I'll be going short if I see the S&P reaching 2757 (yesterday's wave 3 peak) at the close.

 

[weatherweenie]

Contrarian indicator that I am, would say that you are right. I am fighting everything to keep from jumping in.

Do you hear that???

That's the sound of Mr. Market trying to suck in the suckers. Don't be one of them. :Flush:

 

[Happy_Trails]

My wife says to stay out - current rally = smoke and mirrors. She is usually pretty good at making calls.

 

[Rod]

Contrarian indicator that I am, would say that you are right. I am fighting everything to keep from jumping in.

Especially over this long weekend. You certainly don't want to be in then. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the MSM will soon pivot away from NY as it peaks and search for more dire news elsewhere, as in LA and other "hot spot" states which have yet to peak.

And don't forget, Q1 earnings is right around the corner. But, I honestly can't say how stocks will react to it. FOMO will really set in for some if Mr. Market shrugs off those eventual crappy numbers. Maybe reality will truly begin to set it with Q2 and Q3 earnings, or lack thereof? We could be seeing a lot of sideways action until then. That L-shaped recovery some are talking about? All of us are merely speculating what might happen. None of us know for sure. Take it all in with a grain of salt. But, do keep that FOMO in check.

God Bless :smile: