Rod's Account Talk

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Rod said:
No FOMO here. Patiently waiting for the retest...
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There are gaps above and below which way do we go? Both directions need filled but which ones gets done first. Wish I knew but I'm with you and hoping to see the ones below get filled with a retest. It's hard though with big money pockets Powell turning on all the presses and waiting for a retest could take a very long time. Look how long it took to fill the one from Oct 20 and I may be wrong but there might have been one left from initial Powell Put in Dec/Jan 19. To be honest this is why the 2 trade limit sucks. I know I was out early in the month and even when the price got to where I considered ok I was out of trades hoping to make it to Apr however Big Money Powell stepped in again. Guess this is another lesson I needed to learn in being patient. Thank you Sir may I have another.
 
Cramer says that algos are programmed to "bring down the S&P" when oil "craters." If so, then this bounce is very suspicious.

oil.jpg
 
Congrats to those of you who have reaped the rewards from the past few days. Especially if you've been caught up in this mess from the beginning. Just remain buckled in because the ride isn't over with yet. But, let the past few days be evidence that you will indeed recover every last red cent, and then some, as long as you do not jump off of the roller coaster. Because you only get hurt when you jump off. Hang in there. This ride will be over with eventually. :fing02:
 
Interesting perspective... heard this on CNBC this evening. You may also have heard it:

"History teaches us the deeper the decline, the higher the bounce, and the deeper the retest."

Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management

On average, most restests of lows occur within a couple of months. But, as we all know, we aren't in an "average" situation. If Monday was indeed the bottom, its retest will likely come sooner rather than later. There is always the chance that the bottom will not be retested. If so, then I will miss out on some monster gains in the future. But, I am not willing to take that chance because my history teaches me that when I get a case of FOMO, I am usually late to the party. Therefore, I'll just continue to relax in (G) and wait for that retest.
 
Rod said:
... because my history teaches me that when I get a case of FOMO, I am usually late to the party. Therefore, I'll just continue to relax in (G) and wait for that retest.
Click to expand...

Same.

Current statements by the US president counteracting medical experts and driving to force "open" the economy by Easter indicate new lows in the coming weeks. Happily 80/20 G/C until we get a solid COVID-19 plan, cohesion between Exec Branch/Congress/Governors/medical experts, and declining US daily deaths from COVID-19.
 
mdfiasco said:
Same.

Current statements by the US president counteracting medical experts and driving to force "open" the economy by Easter indicate new lows in the coming weeks. Happily 80/20 G/C until we get a solid COVID-19 plan, cohesion between Exec Branch/Congress/Governors/medical experts, and declining US daily deaths from COVID-19.
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Although President Trump had/has my vote, and has my prayers and support, I certainly do not agree with his statement. But, aside from it, Mr. Market will do what it's going to do.... whatever that will be. At any rate, the economy will likely be reopened in a staggered fashion. Beginning with the least affected counties within each state. But, my humble opinion does not see that occurring across the vast majority of the US until May at the earliest... after the COVID-19 peak, which is forecast to occur in mid-April, on average across the US.
 
I'm new to this Forum,,this is my first post. I'm looking to retire inside of 2 yrs so I can't take chances like I used to. Two weeks ago I sought refuge and IFT'd 100% into (G) but like most everyone else, I took a severe beating before I could get there. I'm thinking there'll be a retest - maybe as soon as next week. like you guys, I plan to continue in the (G) and wait for the retest - thanks to FOMO I can't really say I'm relaxing though.
 
Rod said:
Although President Trump had/has my vote, and has my prayers and support, I certainly do not agree with his statement. But, aside from it, Mr. Market will do what it's going to do.... whatever that will be. At any rate, the economy will likely be reopened in a staggered fashion. Beginning with the least affected counties within each state. But, my humble opinion does not see that occurring across the vast majority of the US until May at the earliest... after the COVID-19 peak, which is forecast to occur in mid-April, on average across the US.
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I hear you, and I want to ensure I was not taking this to a political discussion. The US presidents, whomever it may be, and their statements and actions factor into this event and how it affects Mr. Market.
 
Chas said:
I'm new to this Forum,,this is my first post. I'm looking to retire inside of 2 yrs so I can't take chances like I used to. Two weeks ago I sought refuge and IFT'd 100% into (G) but like most everyone else, I took a severe beating before I could get there. I'm thinking there'll be a retest - maybe as soon as next week. like you guys, I plan to continue in the (G) and wait for the retest - thanks to FOMO I can't really say I'm relaxing though.
Click to expand...

Welcome Chas! :beerchug: No worries... we've all taken our beatings at one time or another. :twak: You're in good company. :fing02:

Although not required, feel free to create your own Account Talk thread.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newthread.php?do=newthread&f=12
 
Do not let your guard down. Continue to be extremely careful navigating through this minefield. Capital preservation should be our goal in this environment until Mr. Market has stabilized. But, if you find yourself caught in a bull trap, you cannot say that you were not warned.

Rod said:
Interesting perspective... heard this on CNBC this evening. You may also have heard it:

"History teaches us the deeper the decline, the higher the bounce, and the deeper the retest."

Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management

On average, most restests of lows occur within a couple of months. But, as we all know, we aren't in an "average" situation. If Monday was indeed the bottom, its retest will likely come sooner rather than later. There is always the chance that the bottom will not be retested. If so, then I will miss out on some monster gains in the future. But, I am not willing to take that chance because my history teaches me that when I get a case of FOMO, I am usually late to the party. Therefore, I'll just continue to relax in (G) and wait for that retest.
Click to expand...
 
I was thinking about jumping to safety today.. I've ridden this out so far and that was my plan.. I'm only 25% invested but this dragging out is messing with my head.
 
Let's see if this comes to fruition...

Article is dated 29 Mar 2020.

"In this article I will explain why it's highly likely that, after the current bear market rally runs its course (likely within the next few days), US equities will reverse to the downside and initiate a second major leg down in the current bear market cycle, resulting in a collapse in the value of the S&P 500 index which extends far beneath recent lows established on Friday, March 20. In this article I will describe only one methodology which I have employed to arrive at this forecast.

The method I describe in this article is relatively simple. I provide a list of historical bear markets since 1929 and classify them by their severity. I then briefly review some of the economic crises and recessions associated with those bear markets and compare them in terms of severity to the current and forthcoming economic crisis and recession that's associated with the global COVID-19 outbreak.

It will briefly explain why the current and forthcoming economic crisis and recession is likely to be significantly more severe than any other economic crisis and/or recession since the Great Depression. In this context, I will show that it will be quite fortunate, indeed, if during the current bear market cycle, the S&P 500 index manages to establish a bottom somewhere in the range of 1876 to 1463.

My current 'base case' scenario (my working hypothesis) is that the current bear market will ultimately fall into the 'severe' category. In this particular analysis, this would imply a trough for the current bear market cycle in the range (S&P 500 index) of 1876 to 1463."

Full article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334820-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-the-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-0
 
Rod said:
It sure is... if it comes to pass. Of course, no one really knows what will happen. But, it is an interesting read.
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Are the Seeking Alpha writers credible? Just curious what their overall track record is in terms of being right. I am out effective tomorrow and so, see myself as neutral at this point, no axe to grind regarding the bear or bull side.
 
the 1547 comments on the SA article are equally interesting. kind of reminds me of the gang here. i learn alot 👍 thx Rod and gang and well wishes to all. heading back now to X22 and SGT Reports recommended by the one and only CH. 🧐
 
Happy_Trails said:
Are the Seeking Alpha writers credible? Just curious what their overall track record is in terms of being right. I am out effective tomorrow and so, see myself as neutral at this point, no axe to grind regarding the bear or bull side.
Click to expand...

There is a plethora of Seeking Alpha writers- over 15,000 of them. Each with their own take/opinion. Anybody who is qualified can apply to be a contributor. I'm sure you can research each author's "track record."

Here is how somebody can become a contributor:

https://seekingalpha.com/page/become-a-seeking-alpha-contributor
 
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