Rod's Account Talk

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To reiterate what I wrote on Monday...

Rod said:
Do not let your guard down. Continue to be extremely careful navigating through this minefield. Capital preservation should be our goal in this environment until Mr. Market has stabilized. But, if you find yourself caught in a bull trap, you cannot say that you were not warned.
Click to expand...
 
As of COB yesterday, all of our accounts are out of the stock market. A very simple indicator seems like it could be the trick for this market. Buy at the end of April only if price closes above the 200 day simple moving average effective 4/30/2020. Following that simple indicator would have had me out for all of March because price closed below the 200 SMA on 2/29/2020. It suggests to be out of stocks all of April since price closed below the. 200 day SMA on 3/31/2020.
 
Happy_Trails said:
As of COB yesterday, all of our accounts are out of the stock market. A very simple indicator seems like it could be the trick for this market. Buy at the end of April only if price is closes above the 200 day simple moving average effective 4/30/2020. Following that simple indicator would have had me out for all of March because price closed below the 200 SMA on 2/29/2020. It suggests to be out of stocks all of April since price closed below the. 200 day SMA on 3/31/2020.
Click to expand...

I'm happily watching the markets tank and sitting happily 80/20 (G,C). I'll bite back in a bit at a time over the coming weeks...but I'm curious if you have your TSP contributions going in to G as well. I was 100 C prior to Feb 22, now I'm 45 C, 45 S, 10 G and happy with that.

What's the take here on contributions? Just curious, Im stoked where I'm at.
 
Beware of the inevitable "COVID-19 Has Hit Its Peak" rally. It will likely occur before the true economic shock sets in. Don't get caught up in it!
 
mdfiasco said:
What's the take here on contributions? Just curious, Im stoked where I'm at.
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Always, always, always have your contributions going into (G), and then allocate out from there. Or, you might find yourself contributing into equities on a down day. I'd much rather miss an up day than get caught with my pants down on a down day.
 
Rod said:
Always, always, always have your contributions going into (G), and then allocate out from there. Or, you might find yourself contributing into equities on a down day. I'd much rather miss an up day than get caught with my pants down on a down day.
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Fair enough, but I'm confused by your response.

I want to get into equities on a down day, when the price is lower at close. Or are you using inverse language here?
 
mdfiasco said:
Fair enough, but I'm confused by your response.

I want to get into equities on a down day, when the price is lower at close. Or are you using inverse language here?
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I'm talking about losing some of your payday contribution on a down day. If you have your payday contribution going into equities, and it happens to deposit on a down day, then you will lose some of it. But, if you have it going into (G), then there is no chance of losing any of it. Just IFT out from there.
 
Rod said:
I'm talking about losing some of your payday contribution on a down day. If you have your payday contribution going into equities, and it happens to deposit on a down day, then you will lose some of it. But, if you have it going into (G), then there is no chance of losing any of it. Just IFT out from there.
Click to expand...

I dig that strategy. Forgive me if this has been discussed here before.

So I just got off the phone w/ TSP and did some data mining on my acct. to determine when exactly TSP is buying shares on Contribution days. For the last 6 months, my Posting dates have been payday exactly, meaning TSP is receiving my contribution funds from my agency sometime after noon on Wednesday which gives me the price of shares on the close that Thursday: every Thursday before payday. So knowing this, I suppose we could even try to time contributions: Let them slide in on a down week, put them in G on an up week.
 
Want to say Thank You Rod, for all of your posts. Yesterday was the second time you posted something that made me double think right before my move to re-enter C and S funds. Save me from big loses both times now. so Thank You again. God Bless!!!
 
Valkyrie said:
Want to say Thank You Rod, for all of your posts. Yesterday was the second time you posted something that made me double think right before my move to re-enter C and S funds. Save me from big loses both times now. so Thank You again. God Bless!!!
Click to expand...

Thank you for the feedback! Although none of us can call it 100% of the time, it's nice to call it from time to time. :smile:
 
mdfiasco said:
I dig that strategy. Forgive me if this has been discussed here before.

So I just got off the phone w/ TSP and did some data mining on my acct. to determine when exactly TSP is buying shares on Contribution days. For the last 6 months, my Posting dates have been payday exactly, meaning TSP is receiving my contribution funds from my agency sometime after noon on Wednesday which gives me the price of shares on the close that Thursday: every Thursday before payday. So knowing this, I suppose we could even try to time contributions: Let them slide in on a down week, put them in G on an up week.
Click to expand...

For myself, I would just keep it simple and have my contributions go into (G). I did that even when Mr. Market wasn't in a crisis. But, of course, you should do what you think is best for you. :smile:
 
Rod said:
Beware of the inevitable "COVID-19 Has Hit Its Peak" rally. It will likely occur before the true economic shock sets in. Don't get caught up in it!
Click to expand...

I'd like to coin a term right now before it occurs. It's called the "Cuomo FOMO" affect/rally. This will occur when Gov. Cuomo announces that NY has reached its peak... has flattened the curve. A beautiful day it will be for all of New York. But, if you play the rally, be prepared to jump out of the market just as quickly as you jumped in on the news. It will likely be a short-lived rally just like last week's rally. Because by that time, there will be other "New York"s across the USA going through what New York is currently experiencing.
 
Wow...never though I would see Cuomo and Rally in the same sentence.

and typing “cuomo gave me some entertaining auto correct choices😂
 
Cramer says,

"When S&P future rally on oil futures you have to tread very carefully. The oil chieftains will make their case to the president tomorrow. Unless the president pledges a NO IMPORT ban, oil will fall back."
 
Another Chinese rip-off, this one of Starbucks. I wonder which ranking Chinese government "proletariat" had their fingers in that knock-off?
 
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