RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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RealMoneyIssues said:
Well, I decided to sell my TZA today at 33.70, just before the markets popped up... at least for now. Profit takers are trying to close lower.

I did take a small position in XIV on the assumption that we have a pause day or a small bounce from this slaughter... if so, then VIX should come down somewhat, boosting XIV (inverse to VIX)...

Taking a chance, but I have been waiting all year to try my theory on big VIX days... I hope it works out.
Click to expand...
Christian says VIX in cup and handle, bullish about 13.10 min in. Nightly Market Videos if you're interested.
 
Bquat said:
Christian says VIX in cup and handle, bullish about 13.10 min in. Nightly Market Videos if you're interested.
Click to expand...

He has also been bullish for weeks (maybe months), so getting a little bounce for a day or two, then heading back down could happen. Look at the SPX weekly and you will see we bounced (albeit a small bounce) off the 20 MA.

I have a tight stop in place, and I will just have to see how tomorrow goes...
 
burrocrat said:
i hope tomorrow goes down, straight down. we need to shake a good 10% of the leaves off this tree before i get to try my hit and git knife caching trick. wheeeeee!
Click to expand...

I am not saying we won't see more downside, just think that after 2 days some buyers will come in for a pause day... Lets see what happens
 
bmneveu said:
Futures lookin good for a decent bounce so far
Click to expand...

The question is whether it is sustained or do more sell orders come in after the open...

Today is Quadruple Witching day:

Investopedia said:
The expiration date of various stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. All stock options contracts expire on the third Friday of each month and once every quarter - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - all four asset classes expire on the same day. Because futures and options investors must close out of their positions on those days, they often witness increased trading volume.
Click to expand...
 
Sorry BT, but the bulls are hiding in their barns with their tails between their legs.

I half expected a bounce, any bounce, but now the bounces are being sold...

So, Bulls are on the run... scary?

I would expect some IFTs to safety for a lot of folks on the AT, but I guess we will see at 1210.

Good luck everyone!
 
all we need now is for mom and pops to logon to their scottrade/schwab accounts and hit the big red 'gtf out now' button. this market gots wheels and gravity is my friend.
 
burrocrat said:
all we need now is for mom and pops to logon to their scottrade/schwab accounts and hit the big red 'gtf out now' button. this market gots wheels and gravity is my friend.
Click to expand...

HEY, I can't find my 'GTF Out NOW' button??? Where is that... I think TDA needs an upgrade!

I think everyone is now expecting more downside, so it is theoretically possible that we could bounce a little today and Monday... who knows?

Only time will tell...
 
GTF button got pushed a couple days ago. I'd be pressing it repeatedly today over and over to get faster results if I were in.

But that is just me. I think a lot of us here are wondering where that go away in may event went and are still waiting for the 10% drop. But again, I am making assumptions now.
 
Well, had a great week-end. Spent Saturday at Colonial Williamsburg and Sunday recovering ;)

I made a daring moving thinking we had a bounce coming after a 500+ move down in the DJIA... Well, looking at this mornings futures charts and VIX, I am definitely second guessing my move. Since I don't trust my analysis, I didn't go all in, so I might buy some more this morning still hoping that there is a 1-2 day bounce just to draw some more bulls into the market, then more downside...

Well, as I was writing this and looking at other sites, the ES futures are up about 9 points, so maybe the dip buyers have finally come to save the day!!

One of the problems is that the bond market is hemorrhaging, with rate continuing to go up. Some folks believe the 10 year will hit 2.9% before any relief. Interesting, all that money leaving bonds is not going into equities. So, where is it going? The US Dollar?

The USD decoupled from it's inverse relationship with the equities market over a month ago, so now it isn't quite so easy to see where the market might go by watching the USD. For the last few weeks, you could watch the USD/JPY spot price to get a little insight into where the equity markets were going... now that is going the way of the Dodo and I am not sure what to watch on the currency market...

S&P-500 futures are getting rejected at 1575 (4x as of 9am) after dumping through 1575 probably due to the Asia market sell offs (China down over 5%). Some analysts are saying that the bulls need to push this above, and stay above, 1580 to have any glimmer of hope to continue to rise. Other analysts are saying that there is going to be a drop to 1540-1550 before a meaningful bounce. As ES hit 1565 this morning, maybe that will be close enough. Will the dip buyers save the day!!

As mentioned on this board and others, the character of the market has now changed from "buy the dip" to "sell the pop" which is significant. This mentality will continue to be the baseline for the market until some event (yet to be determined by the market manipulators) changes it back. That could be at 1540, or 1200... Only time will tell.

Another thing to look at is the long term outlook of the S&P, where the long term (weekly and monthly) support/resistance trendline from the 1990s means the bulls need to keep the market above ~1580. Another trendline is from the 200 and 2007 peaks, meaning the support is at ~1585. The point is, if this week (and this month too) doesn't bounce to end above 1580-1585, then the chances of additional, significant selling is much higher.

1580-1585 is the battle line, lets see who wins by the end of the week/month.

Options Expiration week is over, but volatility is at a multi-month high which is good for traders, but makes for wild swings in the market. This is testing the psyche of investors, but until they panic, we are probably good for a bounce... let us see :(

As always, only time will tell what the market has in store for the bulls and the bears.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Well, had a great week-end. Spent Saturday at Colonial Williamsburg and Sunday recovering ;)

I made a daring moving thinking we had a bounce coming after a 500+ move down in the DJIA... Well, looking at this mornings futures charts and VIX, I am definitely second guessing my move. Since I don't trust my analysis, I didn't go all in, so I might buy some more this morning still hoping that there is a 1-2 day bounce just to draw some more bulls into the market, then more downside...

Well, as I was writing this and looking at other sites, the ES futures are up about 9 points, so maybe the dip buyers have finally come to save the day!!

One of the problems is that the bond market is hemorrhaging, with rate continuing to go up. Some folks believe the 10 year will hit 2.9% before any relief. Interesting, all that money leaving bonds is not going into equities. So, where is it going? The US Dollar?

The USD decoupled from it's inverse relationship with the equities market over a month ago, so now it isn't quite so easy to see where the market might go by watching the USD. For the last few weeks, you could watch the USD/JPY spot price to get a little insight into where the equity markets were going... now that is going the way of the Dodo and I am not sure what to watch on the currency market...

S&P-500 futures are getting rejected at 1575 (4x as of 9am) after dumping through 1575 probably due to the Asia market sell offs (China down over 5%). Some analysts are saying that the bulls need to push this above, and stay above, 1580 to have any glimmer of hope to continue to rise. Other analysts are saying that there is going to be a drop to 1540-1550 before a meaningful bounce. As ES hit 1565 this morning, maybe that will be close enough. Will the dip buyers save the day!!

As mentioned on this board and others, the character of the market has now changed from "buy the dip" to "sell the pop" which is significant. This mentality will continue to be the baseline for the market until some event (yet to be determined by the market manipulators) changes it back. That could be at 1540, or 1200... Only time will tell.

Another thing to look at is the long term outlook of the S&P, where the long term (weekly and monthly) support/resistance trendline from the 1990s means the bulls need to keep the market above ~1580. Another trendline is from the 200 and 2007 peaks, meaning the support is at ~1585. The point is, if this week (and this month too) doesn't bounce to end above 1580-1585, then the chances of additional, significant selling is much higher.

1580-1585 is the battle line, lets see who wins by the end of the week/month.

Options Expiration week is over, but volatility is at a multi-month high which is good for traders, but makes for wild swings in the market. This is testing the psyche of investors, but until they panic, we are probably good for a bounce... let us see :(

As always, only time will tell what the market has in store for the bulls and the bears.
Click to expand...
I disagree with the going from buying the dip to selling the tops. That happens at the 200 SMA. I think we're just dipping until this market corrects until it can be more economy based. My two cents.:notrust:
 
Bquat said:
I disagree with the going from buying the dip to selling the tops. That happens at the 200 SMA. I think we're just dipping until this market corrects until it can be more economy based. My two cents.:notrust:
Click to expand...

I guess I was looking at this from the retail point of view and not the institution point of view. If a retail investor bought leading up to May 22nd, that retail investor has already been pounding their head against their monitor. The SPX has lost 100 points since then, and there doesn't appear to be any strength to get back up there. So, from a retail point of view, I see that they may be panic selling if we get below 1550 by any margin.

Don't take stock in anything I say. My TSP account is officially at 0% for the year.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Well, had a great week-end. Spent Saturday at Colonial Williamsburg and Sunday recovering ;)

I made a daring moving thinking we had a bounce coming after a 500+ move down in the DJIA... Well, looking at this mornings futures charts and VIX, I am definitely second guessing my move. Since I don't trust my analysis, I didn't go all in, so I might buy some more this morning still hoping that there is a 1-2 day bounce just to draw some more bulls into the market, then more downside...

Well, as I was writing this and looking at other sites, the ES futures are up about 9 points, so maybe the dip buyers have finally come to save the day!!

One of the problems is that the bond market is hemorrhaging, with rate continuing to go up. Some folks believe the 10 year will hit 2.9% before any relief. Interesting, all that money leaving bonds is not going into equities. So, where is it going? The US Dollar?

The USD decoupled from it's inverse relationship with the equities market over a month ago, so now it isn't quite so easy to see where the market might go by watching the USD. For the last few weeks, you could watch the USD/JPY spot price to get a little insight into where the equity markets were going... now that is going the way of the Dodo and I am not sure what to watch on the currency market...

S&P-500 futures are getting rejected at 1575 (4x as of 9am) after dumping through 1575 probably due to the Asia market sell offs (China down over 5%). Some analysts are saying that the bulls need to push this above, and stay above, 1580 to have any glimmer of hope to continue to rise. Other analysts are saying that there is going to be a drop to 1540-1550 before a meaningful bounce. As ES hit 1565 this morning, maybe that will be close enough. Will the dip buyers save the day!!

As mentioned on this board and others, the character of the market has now changed from "buy the dip" to "sell the pop" which is significant. This mentality will continue to be the baseline for the market until some event (yet to be determined by the market manipulators) changes it back. That could be at 1540, or 1200... Only time will tell.

Another thing to look at is the long term outlook of the S&P, where the long term (weekly and monthly) support/resistance trendline from the 1990s means the bulls need to keep the market above ~1580. Another trendline is from the 200 and 2007 peaks, meaning the support is at ~1585. The point is, if this week (and this month too) doesn't bounce to end above 1580-1585, then the chances of additional, significant selling is much higher.

1580-1585 is the battle line, lets see who wins by the end of the week/month.

Options Expiration week is over, but volatility is at a multi-month high which is good for traders, but makes for wild swings in the market. This is testing the psyche of investors, but until they panic, we are probably good for a bounce... let us see :(

As always, only time will tell what the market has in store for the bulls and the bears.
Click to expand...

Glad you did not go all in. I started to, but backed out with about 30 seconds left. Still in the G.
 
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