RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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bmneveu said:
nice pop the last few days. i may short here around 1600. not sure yet
Click to expand...

I would rather see something closer to 1620-1625, but I am not clear whether that is an unrealistic goal. Any bull moves have been promptly sold, so if we can maintain this level today, I might consider one more day. If not, I will probably go to cash today just to lock in gains and see what the market has in store... who knows.
 
As usual, pops are being sold... looks like I should have sold my longs at the open and if I thought we would continue up, buy more this afternoon.

Intraday support has just been broke and confirmed. I don't expect to see any more upside today, financials are weak, and the pop in the USD is just confusing things again.

Was hoping with the positives in the global market, we would see more of a gain today, but alas... it doesn't look like it will sustain.

For the bulls out there... the markets action does not support your BS (reminder: bullish sentiment)... good luck. I see us hitting 1500-1550 before we go near 1650... But, hey, what do I know... I am at 1.5% for the year (only because of yesterday's recovery)
 
I suspect that we now have the potential to break the intraday high of 1688 (SPX) the first four trading days of July. With the downward revision of the GDP - QE infinity is still in play and we are in a liquidity driven market. Stay in and win.
 
Birchtree said:
I suspect that we now have the potential to break the intraday high of 1688 (SPX) the first four trading days of July. With the downward revision of the GDP - QE infinity is still in play and we are in a liquidity driven market. Stay in and win.
Click to expand...

If that were the case, then we should have seen a pop and go from the market, but what we are seeing is a pop and drop. No serious bull is worth their weight until they can close above 1600 (psychological), then 1620 (20 AND 50 daily MA)...

Until the bulls take it seriously, I am in neutral...
 
Well, today was interesting. Spent way too much time listening to the political blathering of a TSP rep here for training. Nothing new, and she gave the same party line when I asked her about IFTs and 12 noon deadline...

Oh well. I sold too early, watching my short ETFs go down in value... Oh well. I will see what happens from here.

Have a great day everyone.

Have you seen the price of gold recently??
 
I am pretty sure this has been covered in detail here, but I wanted to be sure I understood this...

The PIP does not take into account contributions?

T or F

Thanks!!
 
if you have $100 and gain 5% over 11 months you have $105. If you than contribute another $100, making it $205 and gain another 5% over 1 month you have 215.25. So you gained $15.25 but your average balance was something slightly higher than 108.75 ( ($100 * 11 + $205 * 1 month) / 12 months = average balance of $108.75.

$15.25 is 14% of 108.75 (average account balance)
$15.25 is only 7.625% of $200 (total account contributed)
For the year you had compound gains of 10.25% (1.05*1.05 - 1). This way is irrelevant to actual $$ balances and is more closely to how the autotracker works.
 
k0nkuzh0n said:
if you have $100 and gain 5% over 11 months you have $105. If you than contribute another $100, making it $205 and gain another 5% over 1 month you have 215.25. So you gained $15.25 but your average balance was something slightly higher than 108.75 ( ($100 * 11 + $205 * 1 month) / 12 months = average balance of $108.75.

$15.25 is 14% of 108.75 (average account balance)
$15.25 is only 7.625% of $200 (total account contributed)
For the year you had compound gains of 10.25% (1.05*1.05 - 1). This way is irrelevant to actual $$ balances and is more closely to how the autotracker works.
Click to expand...

Its too late to crunch numbers like this (probably have to wait until tomorrow), but the question was specific to the PIP, not the AT.

The AT doesn't take into account contributions, but I am pretty sure neither does the PIP .
 
It doesn't. If it did, your first year would be like100% and 2nd year would be 50%. I don't remember ever seeing those numbers.
 
Personal Investment Performance (PIP) — The rate of return earned by your entire account during the 12-month period ending on the date indicated on your annual statement or on your Account Balance page of the TSP website. The PIP is a time-weighted return that has been calculated using a modified-Deitz method (a method used by many financial institutions and an industry standard). The PIP adjusts for the distorting effects of cash flows into or out of your account. It is an estimate; therefore, your PIP may not be the same as the 12-month performance of the TSP funds, which are time-weighted returns.

https://www.tsp.gov/sitehelp/glossary/glossaryOfTerms.shtml

The modified Dietz method[1] is a measure of the historical performance of an investment portfolio in the presence of external flows. (External flows are movements of value such as transfers of cash, securities or other instruments in or out of the portfolio, with no equal movement of value in the opposite direction, and which are not income from the investments in the portfolio, such as interest, coupons or dividends.) To calculate the modified Dietz return, divide the gain or loss in value, net of external flows, by the average capital over the period of measurement. The result of the calculation is expressed as a percentage rate of return for the time period. The average capital weights individual cash flows by the amount of time from when those cash flows occur until the end of the period.

4fd50f2f53f29f1b758ef7b31776760b.png


Modified Dietz method - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Wow, so... since I am "inflowing" over 2% a month and my PIP is around 12%, then my return must be -12%...

I think I am going to leave everything in G, at least there I will get +1.75% :nuts:
 
The Ten Cannots:

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

You cannot help little men by tearing down big men.

You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.

You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.

You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.

You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn.

You cannot build character and courage by destroying men's initiative and independence.

And you cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.


William J. H. Boetcker - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia​
 
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