rangerray's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Seems counter-intuitive, doesn't it? So, rates are lowered in response to some form of economic upheaval, then as the economic situation resolves and takes off (too hot), rates are raised again in response to the growth in order to slow it down. Is that about right? :blink:

 

[rangerray]

I didn’t have a chance to update my account status. I was getting ready to eat a Chinese buffet.

I updated from 50% S and 50% C to 20% S, 20% C and 60% G. My plan is to lock in gains from today, hopefully, then be less exposed in case this rally is short-lived.

I lost gains in 2020 by doing exactly what I’m doing (a hit and run), but I don’t trust the market that much when such huge swings are on the table.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[rangerray]

This was my thinking on the C Fund and why I reduced today from 50% to 20%. I read up on the links about the Fib Retracement tool that Robo posted. I used the high from 2/2/2022 instead of the high from 1/4/2022 because the high in January wasn't the most recent high. The .618 to .65 retracement level is supposed to be the "golden pocket;" a good place to sell. It got there today according to how I'm seeing it.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Congrats! Well played RangerRay! :smile:

 

[rangerray]

Congrats! Well played RangerRay! :smile:

Thank you DB!

I wasn't so much looking to toot my horn as much as I was fishing for some commentary on my use of the fib tool. I don't know just a whole lot about it's use, but I figure there is some creative license with it.

 

[Epic]

Nice move man !!! I wish I would have done the same.

 

[rangerray]

I think further upside is very limited in the face of stiff resistance ahead and if this latest move up is indeed cyclical like someone else mentioned this morning, then the next leg doesn't suit me with money on the table. I've made my money this month and will watch from the sidelines until April Fools Day.

 

[rangerray]

Still sitting in G Fund, but watching. These are a few of my observations:



Long Term

I think that long-term we're headed for a recession. I expect there to be huge bear market rally's along that wide band descending channel. But, long term you'd have to agree that we are trending down. There is a war in Ukraine. Inflation is hot and the government is working to reduce it. Markets might seem bullish at times throughout, but the Fed eventually breaks something on the way to getting inflation under control.

Short Term Alternative 1

News driven fluctuations in the market. Do we really see good news coming in the short term? I'm not very hopeful. Opportunistic, in and out moves would be what I'm leaning towards if we follow this channel. I wouldn't trust the direction of this channel as long as the Fed is trying to fight inflation. And, inflation will be front and center in the mid-term elections, so there's the possibility of lots of political promises and predictions to muddy things up further. We still have restaurants and other retail stores that close early because they don't have folks to work the jobs.

Short Term Alternative 2

This channel represents a slow grind down, a continuation of the long-term trend. I think it's more likely than not given the current economy and practically every talking head that I pay attention to says that a recession is inevitable.


Bottom line, I think there will be ample opportunities to make some money, but we have to be much more patient than in the previous two years in looking for those windows of opportunity. For me, that means being much more conservative with my percentages and will have spent a lot of time MOSTLY in the G Fund trying to figure it out. I'm in preservation mode right now.

 

[LTJPFED]

Nice chart! Maybe you can keep it updated through the year to see where we are in these channels. Thanks for posting it!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Great chart Ranger Ray! Definitely agree...no doubt we are in a down trend, and we will just have short "windows" of opportunity to make money. Best wishes to you! :smile:

 

[rangerray]

Congrats! You strike me as pretty strong (at least in my opinion) in your allocations for a near retiree. I envy your returns! Curious if you are going to continue this into retirement or will you start to be more cautious?

I don't think I ever answered this, but, yes, I'm going to be a lot more cautious, but I'll still go "all in" when the opportunity calls for it.

 

[Boghie]

A recession during a period of inflation - forcing the FED to raise interest rates - is a VERY no bueno time to be in the market.

There will be nothing we can invest in that will outgain inflation and interest rates.

At least, nothing we can invest in.

GLHF

 

[rangerray]

-The open gap down below looks like a target to me.

-Nearing the lower Bollinger band currently. It could hug that lower BB for longer than we think or, if we drop below it quickly it could suddenly present as a buying opportunity.

-It's Friday. I do not trust buying on a Friday unless there's something positive on my radar.

-On the retracement, if that 1858 area doesn't hold, the next target to me could be the lows of Feb/Mar

-That open gap :notrust:

 

[rangerray]

I moved to 100% S at COB today.

We have now gapped down to within range of the March lows and I feel more optimistic that support will hold. There's now a small gap above that could be a target. Powell isn't supposed to speak this week. Several important earnings reports are due later this week and I'm feeling there's about a 75% chance those will be positive.

Will Elon's purchase of Twitter help the market? I think it might.

I'll start to regret this move if I see another drop of 1.5% here are more, but I'm going to test my nerve today and see if I can make a buck over the next day or two.

I don't have this same sentiment when I look at the chart for the C Fund.

 

[Epic]

Good Luck !!!!! I thought about it, but I chickened out. The Risk / Reward ratio just isn't quite where I like it. Still just a bit too sketchy out there right now. :ugh:

 

[Boghie]

Well, the S tends to lead the C - so might be time to overweight both...

Personally, I'm happy watching others time the market right now.

 

[rangerray]

C'mon Turnaround Tuesday, Papa needs a new pair of shoes!

And, that gap seems to be inconsequential now.

 

[rangerray]

-1.73% currently. I asked for this? :embarrest:

Now, I'm looking for support to hold.

 

[Boghie]

Personally, I believe that if the CongressCritters start implementing a higher and more fair tax regimen all will be good.

Also, the benefit of higher taxes can be augmented by more regulation - especially on energy.

Works every time.

 

[Boghie]

We wanted this.

We got it.

Yea!!!

Now, my assets are basically camping it till we want something else.

I'll just watch while others market time.

In sports, this is called an 'unforced error'. Happy hunting