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rangerray's Account Talk
- Thread starter rangerray
- Start date
![lol-045[1].gif](https://forum.tsptalk.com/data/attachments/4/4209-2b4ea824defffff4193be9fe84131301.jpg?hash=4KZAsgVKwB "lol-045[1].gif")
rangerray
Active member
This article made a couple of good points about what the labor market is saying in regards to whether we're in a recession or not.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-get-jobs-as-gdp-falls-155824972.html
"Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis of recessions since 1939, the first month of a recession on average sees a decline in jobs. And we haven’t seen a decline in jobs since December 2020."
"For now, the strong labor market is keeping the economy from tipping into a recession."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-get-jobs-as-gdp-falls-155824972.html
"Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis of recessions since 1939, the first month of a recession on average sees a decline in jobs. And we haven’t seen a decline in jobs since December 2020."
"For now, the strong labor market is keeping the economy from tipping into a recession."
rangerray
Active member
I haven't known what to do lately. I'm not really having to touch my TSP balance at the present, so I've just been sitting in the G Fund. I've been wanting to get in on some of these gains, but every day I feel like the bottoms gonna drop again. No use in chasing the market, but I've been saying that for many days.
Looking for guidance and enjoying the research everyone here is doing!
Looking for guidance and enjoying the research everyone here is doing!
Epic
Well-known member
Hey Ray, don't feel bad. I think a lot of us are doing that exact same thing, including myself. I'm not use to Bear Market behavior, and I got smacked pretty hard in January, so I've been in G-Fund ever since.
Hit me once, shame on YOU....Hit me twice, shame on ME.
If I were still working (4 the Gov.) and didn't care so much, I'd be taking more chances with trying to catch some of these rallies, but that's just not the case and I'm not willing to risk it.
I try and educate myself as much as possible with what little time I have to do so, and there are quite a number of the Market Talking Heads who say that this is just a bear market rally and most likely will subside and the overall market will continue heading south on a downward trajectory. Until they feel differently, I'll just wait it out, but to each their own I guess. :cheesy:
August and September are the 2 worst months to be in stocks.
Walmart and other major retailers initiating large scale layoffs.
2 more rate hikes coming
Quantitative Easing in full swing
Prices and Inflation going through the roof
Hmmmmm.......lots to think about there...:scratchchin::scratchchin::scratchchin::scratchchin::scratchchin:
Boghie
Well-known member
Guidance: Don't be 100% out of the market.
I'm feeling a bit like you at only 30% in C/S/I. I've left money on the table with the recent upturn, but I have collected some of it. Also, I contribute only to C/S/I so that also increases my equity holdings.
I don't trust this market. It seems washy. I will wait till November and let the horrid months of September and October hit the rearview mirror. But, during that time I will have 1/3rd of my money making money if the market continues to recover - or, only take 1/3rd of the market loss (giving me time for other moves) if equities and bonds dump. I don't feel the need to 'get out' at this point if things drop 10% (my loss will be 2% - 3%), and I am recovering enough to be kinda happy if things gain 10% (my account will grow 3% - 4%).
Sometimes the market does as the market does. I haven't seen anything positive that should have turned it around. However, the fact that we reached a DEEP correction state might mean that the market actually corrected. That is a thing. There really doesn't need to be more than that to end a correction. I mean, that is kinda the definition - but we never really know when we hit that point. Hence, never be 100% out of the market. You want some of these 2% - 5% gains. Yummy
Like you I feel I've missed out on this upswing. I was 50% in C heading into it and decided to cut back to 20% thinking of the "sell the rally" in a bear market. So they fooled me once again. However I think another chance is coming. There appears to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with the right shoulder about to form. Equity Clock talks about this today. The trend of manufacturers? orders in the US remains strong, but the pockets of strength below the surface highlight the areas to target within investment portfolios.
If that happens we should see some resistance and a drop from about here back to 4000 to complete the bottom of the right shoulder. Then, pattern-wise, it should improve
But I agree with Boghie in keeping 20 to 30% in at all times, which I've done all year. That way when the bear market rallies start you are recovering losses while you wait to see how definite the upswing is.
If that happens we should see some resistance and a drop from about here back to 4000 to complete the bottom of the right shoulder. Then, pattern-wise, it should improve
But I agree with Boghie in keeping 20 to 30% in at all times, which I've done all year. That way when the bear market rallies start you are recovering losses while you wait to see how definite the upswing is.
Hang in there man! I totally am with you so your not alone. I am still kicking myself for not getting back in with my 2nd move late July. Saw the rounded bottom on the S&P and figured it would move up and it did. Hindsight lol. Can't live in the past. Today is a new opportunity. Not saying you have to do anything today just saying today is a new day.
Tom had great comments in his article this morning, things I had wanted to post several times this week but time and distractions prevented me from doing so, concerning FOMO and climbing the wall of worry. I think that is the phase we are in right now. Fund managers pushed the markets up into FOMC meeting and rate decision and it is still climbing. I think they have pulled enough individual investors in that any day now this will pull back. Not saying a crash and not saying we even go down to test the previous lows, although I am still thinking we do. Maybe I'm in the minority and that's ok. Just my opinion though. Still I want to trade where I can.
With what appears as the NASDAQ leading the way maybe we do keep churning higher, the double top seems to be being ignored on the NDQ. HYG leading as well. There are double tops elsewhere too so maybe we make the attempt but fail to push through. IDK. That S fund looked like it was forming an F flag and thought maybe we would see some consolidation over a few days before trading down to the rising 18 day, obviously not much of a sell off with it rising, but still thought maybe we would see that. I am not so sure now. I thought we'd trade down to it though before bouncing up to that double top. Not getting hung up on the DT's but they tend to sell back down, not always. Just was looking for a potential dip toes entry using that set up but think I'm wrong. Perhaps I'll wait until next week and see where we are. As been mentioned seasonality hasn't always been a good time of the year. But markets do the opposite of what we think so maybe we should just roll with it lol.
Someone recently told me to trust the market but it's very hard to do in a bear market, especially off the rallies. Some think we've seen the bottom and some think this rally is a sign that has happened. They could be right. But we still should try to be wise in our trading and not just doing something off emotion or because someone told us to. Trust what you see I suppose but do it with caution. Understanding things can change on a dime. The VIX is bouncing a tiny bit this morning, not sure it means much in a day but if we see things turn into a higher bounce, markets sell off more, maybe next week we see this turn and come back down. There may be your opportunity.
Tom had great comments in his article this morning, things I had wanted to post several times this week but time and distractions prevented me from doing so, concerning FOMO and climbing the wall of worry. I think that is the phase we are in right now. Fund managers pushed the markets up into FOMC meeting and rate decision and it is still climbing. I think they have pulled enough individual investors in that any day now this will pull back. Not saying a crash and not saying we even go down to test the previous lows, although I am still thinking we do. Maybe I'm in the minority and that's ok. Just my opinion though. Still I want to trade where I can.
With what appears as the NASDAQ leading the way maybe we do keep churning higher, the double top seems to be being ignored on the NDQ. HYG leading as well. There are double tops elsewhere too so maybe we make the attempt but fail to push through. IDK. That S fund looked like it was forming an F flag and thought maybe we would see some consolidation over a few days before trading down to the rising 18 day, obviously not much of a sell off with it rising, but still thought maybe we would see that. I am not so sure now. I thought we'd trade down to it though before bouncing up to that double top. Not getting hung up on the DT's but they tend to sell back down, not always. Just was looking for a potential dip toes entry using that set up but think I'm wrong. Perhaps I'll wait until next week and see where we are. As been mentioned seasonality hasn't always been a good time of the year. But markets do the opposite of what we think so maybe we should just roll with it lol.
Someone recently told me to trust the market but it's very hard to do in a bear market, especially off the rallies. Some think we've seen the bottom and some think this rally is a sign that has happened. They could be right. But we still should try to be wise in our trading and not just doing something off emotion or because someone told us to. Trust what you see I suppose but do it with caution. Understanding things can change on a dime. The VIX is bouncing a tiny bit this morning, not sure it means much in a day but if we see things turn into a higher bounce, markets sell off more, maybe next week we see this turn and come back down. There may be your opportunity.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Just a guess here but market didn't like it because the job increase means Fed will need to continue to raise rates most likely into 2023. Raising rates pushes prices down to curb inflation. Not sure where we end up today and where we go next week. A little digestion of this news and all the market analysis you can handle today could take the markets in the opposite direction. Who knows.
Perhaps the recession topic is back on the table for those who thought we were not going into one. Personally I don't think we are there, yet. Get out the popcorn lol.
opcorn:
Perhaps the recession topic is back on the table for those who thought we were not going into one. Personally I don't think we are there, yet. Get out the popcorn lol.
opcorn:And maybe taking stocks down to form that right shoulder of the inverted HS pattern?
Boghie
Well-known member
Yup, that is why bonds are tanking...
Actually, kinda hoping for it. Get 'er done with. And besides, now you have to yank another $750 Billion out of the system.
Boghie
Well-known member
I wouldn't exactly call a -0.35% move 'tanking'.
But, we shall see. There is still time.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Agree. Good news on jobs is bad news to market due to increased risk that Fed will increase rates more to curb inflation and the higher risk of Fed over-compensating, raising rates too much or too quickly and pushing economy into deeper recession. It's always something! 
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