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This is interesting from Lance Roberts morning newsletter. The type was so small that I couldn’t tell where the data originated:

IMG_2147.JPG


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
 
Well, I tried to gain a little by timing a bounce that came a day too late for me. Depending on how things turn out today, I have tempered my loss so far with yesterday's rise, but now I'm too nervous again to let it ride over the weekend or take a chance on the new month. I might have let it ride another day or two, but the Amazon and Apple earnings reports didn't help. I just knew those reports would put a little wind in our sails. There's no telling what else I may be wrong about, so back to G for me at COB today.
 
I'm in the same boat. Some strength this morning, some talk of extreme bearish sentiments indicating a bottom... who knows. :dunno:
 
This game is 'Tic-Tac-Toe' right now.

Lots of X's and O's in the air - most of them losers.

As stated in the documentary "Wargames" the only way to win is not to play.


Just find a nice safe allocation that you can sleep with. We are closing into the edge of a 'normal' market to the downside - as measured by the 'C-Fund'/'S&P500'. If the C-Fund declines by a point or so from last night's value we are moving into 2 Standard Deviation territory. If you have something in the market (C/S/I) than you will share in the early gains - which are generally large. If you are all out (G) you will not share. Swinging around, trying to time a bump, will increase your strikeout count and dump your average.

The real problem is that we cannot invest in anything that is holding. That is what happened in 2008. So far, this is not 2008 and I don't think it will be, but life can be hard. It is definitely time to overweight G and the F might have bottomed out. I have never invested in a time of economic contraction AND monetary inflation. We wanted this excitement (and fairness!!!) and we got it. GLHF.
 
Boghie said:
This game is 'Tic-Tac-Toe' right now.

Lots of X's and O's in the air - most of them losers.

As stated in the documentary "Wargames" the only way to win is not to play.


Just find a nice safe allocation that you can sleep with. We are closing into the edge of a 'normal' market to the downside - as measured by the 'C-Fund'/'S&P500'. If the C-Fund declines by a point or so from last night's value we are moving into 2 Standard Deviation territory. If you have something in the market (C/S/I) than you will share in the early gains - which are generally large. If you are all out (G) you will not share. Swinging around, trying to time a bump, will increase your strikeout count and dump your average.

The real problem is that we cannot invest in anything that is holding. That is what happened in 2008. So far, this is not 2008 and I don't think it will be, but life can be hard. It is definitely time to overweight G and the F might have bottomed out. I have never invested in a time of economic contraction AND monetary inflation. We wanted this excitement (and fairness!!!) and we got it. GLHF.
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Then again, you have done better than me!!!

I just cannot handle swinging though.

I don't find it sexy:cheesy:
 
You’re definitely right about the allocation percentages, but I still think a little good timing comes in handy. Hey, sometimes it works!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
 
What taught me to keep a little bit in is, time after time, I would go to 100% G due to scary headlines, "experts" on CNBC, and my own misguided visions of everything crashing. Nearly every time I went 100% G it went right back up a few days to a week later and I'd be angry that I was missing out. Inevitably I'd be in 100% G after my 2 moves for the month so I had to sit there and watch it explode, definitely fomo. So now I always keep a little in, 20-30%. I can sleep at night and I don't have that feeling that it's gonna bounce soon and I'll miss it. Of course, watch this time the "big crash" will happen. I could live with the stupid noon cut off if we could get past the archaic 2 move's per month limitation. That stacks the cards against us and almost forces us to "stay in". It is a disservice to us all.
 
rangerray said:
Anybody feeling the urge to buy the dip? This bear market action sure plays havoc with the emotions.
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And, I'm not saying I'm thinking about it, I just feel the tug...For two years we were so used to buying the weakness. It's hard to shift gears.
 
rangerray said:
Anybody feeling the urge to buy the dip? This bear market action sure plays havoc with the emotions.
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Nope

Would rather watch other people play with their money:laugh:

If you have something in C/S/I than you will share in the rebound gain, if you have nothing than you won't. But, the trend seems to be heading to the dumper. The mess doesn't look flushed yet. Give it time. Your something gain (if you have something in C/S/I) will outgain most of the folks - who are running 100% to the Lilly Pad. It will gain something while you cringe under the Lillies in fear and give you time to get your sticky pants on and start wading into the deeper parts of the pool. You don't want to stand up without your sticky pants!!!
 
One financial guy said this year 'whoever loses the least, wins.' I'm on the lilly pad, eating a 2% gain to a 3% loss, I'll probably be waiting this one out for a while.
 
Whipsaw said:
One financial guy said this year 'whoever loses the least, wins.' I'm on the lilly pad, eating a 2% gain to a 3% loss, I'll probably be waiting this one out for a while.
Click to expand...

Don't mean to make you/us feel bad...

But, your 2% gain on the Lilly Pad is a -6% loss to your purchasing power.

We cannot run from this. What a mess. But, at least it isn't a 30%+ loss to purchasing power like the SSSSsssssss Folks.
 
I’m not posting much, but I’m reading here no less than every day. I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to financial stuff and will readily admit that the boom we went through in 2020/2021 after the pandemic emboldened me somewhat, and because of the massive gains in my account through that period, most days I convinced myself that I knew what I was doing.

I’m about $55,000 down since the first of the year, largely because I thought I knew what I was doing.

That said, with my luck running the way it is, I fully expect the biggest rally of the year now that our accounts are basically shut down.

I am not in despair, though. Just a little impatient and anxious. Happy days will come again!!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
 
I feel the same way RangerRay. The volatility has been very difficult to navigate as we transitioned from bull to bear. Heck just recognizing the top was in late last year was not crystal clear to me but Des at Grok trade called the top in early January. Ira Epstein continues to state we will have big bear rallies followed by further drops with lots of volatility. I have never navigated a bear market, so I am all ears. :smile:

I have a bear strategy to try to profit off the bear rallies and stay in just a few days each month, but the start of this year was quicker moving than I thought it would be and lost quite a bit (9%). So at this point, I will try to be more patient and wait for a little more stability. I do think this current rally will be a strong one! But I just could not bring myself to enter without the ability to exit and just still not confident enough in market. FOMO but also will be fun to watch! :popcorn: Plenty of opportunities lie ahead.
 
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