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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!rangerray's Account Talk
- Thread starter rangerray
- Start date
ravensfan
Well-known member
I feel your pain. I'm down 4.83% myself. Not exactly how I envisioned finishing out the year. Even if we get a great Santa Rally I will be lucky to recover my current losses. I really need to work on my strategy and stick to it...
Epic
Well-known member
If we could have 3 or 4 days of strait up action, that would put a big fat smile on my face and I'd head back to G for the year.
I like Ira, but I also watch this guy. I watch from beginning until he starts his daily commentary review at 5:45. Then I skip ahead to the 15:00 mark for the rest of the chart talk.
Here >>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHLe2Xn3uns
..I watch his videos most days too and do the same thing, skipping the middle part, which is more about day trading. He gives insightful analysis and I've learned a lot about pattern recognition and things like retesting the lows (which just happened in the small caps) and retesting break up and break down candles. He discusses the IWM and DJT as leading market indicators and he is usually correct. He talks about tin-foil hat events (which I am still skeptical about) but he was right when it happened in late November. Another one supposedly coming in late December, we'll see.
rangerray
Well-known member
Here before the holiday weekend, I'm just a stones throw from where I bought in on Nov 24th. Another 3% up on the S Fund and I'll be back to square one and I've already gotten back to solid ground with my 20% stake in the C Fund. So, I'm hoping that come next session the rally continues for a little longer in the small caps, where I'm in at 80% in the S Fund.
That was a ramble, but I will say this about my retirement. The annual leave that I sold back was included on my very next paycheck, which was also my last paycheck. I didn't want it that early, nut that's the way it worked out.
Merry Christmas everybody and I hope the new year is the best one yet! Hopefully it won't be 2020 Too.Last edited:
Boghie
Well-known member
Nope...
Does the economy feel healthy to you?
I would not be all-in with equities. Maybe EuroTrash/Japan (I Fund), but I think they are in danger as well. I think the growing economy was nipped in the bud mid last year. This thing is turning down.
So, where to go... I don't know. The last thing I want is to camp my assets in some fund earning a crap interest rate defined by Congress. That may be the best place though. It is rare that bonds decline as equities decline, but everything is moving lock-step at this point. Could be looking like 2007/8/7 soon... Probably not, but be vigilant.
One final note... Holding everything in G is pure speculation. Holding everything in anything is pure speculation. Why speculate?
rangerray
Well-known member
I used a second IFT to once again spread between c and S Fund, but I'm getting nervous. At COB, I'll be 50% C and 50% S from 100% C. I read Lance Roberts quite a bit and he keeps a healthy dose of fear instilled in me. This article is very believable:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/pa...A Email Marketing Software&utm_term=READ MORE
"Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks."
"There is no precedent for when so many stocks were in a bear market, yet the index was near its historical highs."
"Despite the best intentions, individual investors are NOT passive even though they invest in “passive” vehicles. Eventually, some exogenous, unexpected event will change investors’ “speculative” psychology. When the psychology changes from “bullish” to “bearish,” the rush to liquidate entire baskets of stocks will accelerate the decline making sell-offs more violent than what we saw in the past. This concentration of risk, lack of liquidity, and a market increasingly driven by “robot trading algorithms,” reversals are no longer a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit becomes very narrow. March 2020 was just a “sampling” of what will happen to the markets when the next bear market begins."
Lord, grant me the wisdom to avoid previous mistakes.
Epic
Well-known member
I almost went 100% I today, but decided to stay with 100% C for now. I fund has just been stronger of late, mostly closing in positive territory above it's open on the day. Can't say that for C fund.
Also, there's something weird how all 4 funds (C, S, I, F) rise and fall at the same and consistent rate, at the same time. That's not normal. What ever happened to "Stocks are up, Bonds are down" and vise-versa? :dunno:
Boghie
Well-known member
Rangerray,
Why are you 100% in equities? If the equity market turns south than C and S will dump in lockstep, with S leading downhill. If C dumps then the I will likely follow or lead. They are all sorta correlated.
The F Fund sucks too, but it has been correcting for over a year now. It is down 5% over the year. It will decline at a slower rate than C/S/I and will not necessarily dump if C/S/I dump. Investors and Speculators will tend to sell equities and buy bonds during a standard equity correction (say up to -15% or 20%). If we get a 2008 dump than only the G Fund will remain stable. I don't see that this equity market is nearly as 'toppy' as 2007, but that is my guess.
Being All-In in a 'toppy' market is a dangerous allocation. I would be something like 40/60 G|F/C|S|I right now if I was concerned about this thing turning over and declining by more than a standard deviation. If retired or nearing retirement than 60/40.
Being All-Out because equities are experiencing a downturn is a dangerous allocation. You don't know when it will turn around and you do not want to miss the massive early gains.
However, if the market shows a long term trend or dumps hard then getting out for a while makes sleeping easier. A 1% decline is not that though. I was seeing multiple days of 8% declines in 2008 with no rebound.
rangerray
Well-known member
Well, I didn't know the market would tumble when I wrote that and, thankfully, it did not. I'm in 100% because I haven't hit my tolerance level for loss yet and I'm looking for that turnaround.
Boghie
Well-known member
I still have tolerance for more pain, but I moved assets from F/S/I into G. I am now G/F/C/S/I 25/30/25/10/10. I lost a point of risk/reward.
I really cannot see anything positive out there. Everyone is adjusting to the stupid, but the stupid is going to last quite some time. You can 'make' money by not losing money. Today looked like a good exit point to take profit.
So, while I could wait for the incremental dump to take me to my -7% from my high I had to ask myself why? Not time to go all-out, but why take part in this?
rangerray
Well-known member
I'm going to bank what little I've gotten back with holding onto my 50% allocation to the C Fund after taking a beating in January. I FEEL that we're about to see another drop and I'm going to wait for a better time to reenter in the month of February, hopefully in the C and S Funds. Going 100% G COB today.Similar threads
