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Qibovin's Account Talk
- Thread starter qibovin
- Start date
qibovin
Member
Taking a little (10%) profit from the only thing in the green as of 1145, the I fund. I'm leaving 30% in per Ebbtracker.
Increasing G fund allocation from 20% to 30% per Trader Fred and my and others' uneasiness.
Keeping 30% in S per Sentiment (and holding out for a gain tomorrow.)
Keeping 10% in C for diversity and because MADDOG shows various "tops" holding more C than "all" average.
Thanks to all referenced.
Increasing G fund allocation from 20% to 30% per Trader Fred and my and others' uneasiness.
Keeping 30% in S per Sentiment (and holding out for a gain tomorrow.)
Keeping 10% in C for diversity and because MADDOG shows various "tops" holding more C than "all" average.
Thanks to all referenced.
qibovin
Member
Gotta decide early. Everyone's buying the dip, but I'm uneasy. Plus Ebb's out, Fred's out, and the Sentiment has not done so hot this week. (Of course if the sentiment's going to pull through, tomorrow could be one heckuva ride up to make up for the rest of the week.) I think there will be a better buying opportunity soon enough, probably announced by Trader Fred. I'm putting 10/10/10 in equities in case of quick turn around, but holding most in G.
qibovin
Member
It seems to have been a general theme over the last week or so to be "all in" for the FOMC circus tomorrow. Now we have the EbbTracker confirming this with one of the most accurate patterns, Sentiment is still in, of course, and today Milk_Man is announcing a buy signal. I'm buying into the idea of holding on to equities through the July 4th holiday, then taking a break for the summer.
Today is looking like a good day to go "I." If the USM stays relatively stable for the rest of the day (when was the last time that happened?) then the "I" is a relative bargain. I'm hoping, then, that the FOMC will result in a +FV tomorrow COB as I hop back over to USM. As a back-up, if the USM tanks after the deadline, the -FV today will buffer my position in the "I." Still, in a crazy market like this, diversification does feel more comfortable, so I'm looking at moving my 20% G to I and maintaining the rest of my equity allocation.
Today is looking like a good day to go "I." If the USM stays relatively stable for the rest of the day (when was the last time that happened?) then the "I" is a relative bargain. I'm hoping, then, that the FOMC will result in a +FV tomorrow COB as I hop back over to USM. As a back-up, if the USM tanks after the deadline, the -FV today will buffer my position in the "I." Still, in a crazy market like this, diversification does feel more comfortable, so I'm looking at moving my 20% G to I and maintaining the rest of my equity allocation.
qibovin
Member
I posted the "Chart of the Day" in the C fund thread that is leaning me toward C fund this month. It also doesn't seem to hurt as bad during dips. I'm showing gains all next week, though with a slightly diminishing likelihood. I will start at 100% equities for Monday and probably take about 10% off the table every up day and buy back any dip until Friday when I will likely go all in for Monday, 9 July, then back off significantly until end of month.
qibovin
Member
I'm on track with last message. F fund thread suggests more movement up for the F, so I'll try a little. I'm moving into C, but the complete unpredictability, lately, of the I fund FV and direction makes me reluctant to move too much in or out at one time. Furthermore, the I fund seems to be popular right now with a good chance of carry over of today's USM performance to the OSMs tonight.
qibovin
Member
I'm sticking with my original DCA out over the course of the week. Trader Fred is still in (and T2034), and the seasonality is strong. I can't help but think that all the chatter and flight to safety in various threads smells like fear. I can imagine that similar thoughts and feeling have occurred every year about this time, thus leading to the strong seasonality data. I haven't heard a lot of really good technical arguments for getting out.
The best argument/rationale is the pending rate increases overseas. Still, they know these are coming, so it's already built into the market prices. The curve ball would be that they don't raise rates, and the market would soar!
I am going to succumb to the fear a little by sticking with my plan to sell off a little each day this week. I'll sell off a little extra today just in case, and get rid of that suddenly worthless F per Ebb.
This leaves me with something like 40% G, 30% C, 30% I (may change slightly), going into what Ben Franklin wanted to call "Deliverance Day" and celebrate annually with great religious fervor. While the connotation of such a phrase now calls to mind strumming banjos and squealing pigs, the original intent is clear. Certainly, tomorrow will be an opportunity to reflect upon the blessings of liberty enjoyed by ourselves as well as the ongoing responsibility to secure those blessing for our posterity. A Blessed Indepence Day to all.
The best argument/rationale is the pending rate increases overseas. Still, they know these are coming, so it's already built into the market prices. The curve ball would be that they don't raise rates, and the market would soar!
I am going to succumb to the fear a little by sticking with my plan to sell off a little each day this week. I'll sell off a little extra today just in case, and get rid of that suddenly worthless F per Ebb.
This leaves me with something like 40% G, 30% C, 30% I (may change slightly), going into what Ben Franklin wanted to call "Deliverance Day" and celebrate annually with great religious fervor. While the connotation of such a phrase now calls to mind strumming banjos and squealing pigs, the original intent is clear. Certainly, tomorrow will be an opportunity to reflect upon the blessings of liberty enjoyed by ourselves as well as the ongoing responsibility to secure those blessing for our posterity. A Blessed Indepence Day to all.
Eldritch Flatus
Member
"Certainly, tomorrow will be an opportunity to reflect upon the blessings of liberty enjoyed by ourselves as well as the ongoing responsibility to secure those blessing for our posterity. A Blessed Indepence Day to all."
Thank you!
So very well said.. May God Bless You, and US all.
Thank you!
So very well said.. May God Bless You, and US all.
qibovin
Member
I'm going to continue my gradual sell-off this week, but keep 20% I for Ebb and 20% C for Fred. I'm going to try 30% F since it's down today and the G is unlikely to pay. If tomorrow is up I will likely go (at least partially) for the penny depending on Sentiment and Trader Fred updates. If it is down, I will likely go all in for Monday before backing off for the next couple of months.
qibovin
Member
Griffin has an excellent stream of collective consciousness going on in his Account Talk thread focused on Paladin's recent success playing the seasonality data. The question comes down to:
1. What is the best market entry timing to catch the one big green day on the seasonalty chart--July trading day #9?
2. What equity fund is going to best capture those gains?
I have been trying to correlate this seasonalty with the EbbTracker data for timing, and factor in the dramatic movement of the dollar today (see T2034's Account Talk thread) and its almost certain rebound to determine the best equity fund (percent allocation).
Here's what I'm thinking:
EbbTracker is in pattern 8 for tomorrow. That pattern has been inconsistent, possibly even worth a contrarian play. The C fund has shown the best return for that pattern and correlates with the seasonal advantage of the C fund previously discussed. Since the gains have been coming rapidly and sizeably, I don't want to miss the upswing. Today's loss may be the majority we will experience for now, so "DCAing" in with 50% C seems to be a safe move today for Wednesday's action.
Thursday, the EbbTracker is in pattern 2. This has been very consistent with the largest gains in the I fund. I think a 50%/50% split of C and I will best capture the gains considering the seasonality of the C now and the unsure timing of the dollar rebound. If the dollar rebounds significantly before then, then the I fund may look more attractive.
Friday's got the seasonality advantage, but the Ebbtracker is out of equities and in for the almost certain G penny with a pretty consistent pattern 6. Still, if the market has not shown a good return by this point, Friday could be the day. I will reserve my allocation decision for Friday until the week has played out more. Even though pattern 6 has been down more than up, it has only avoided 0.5% loss, which may be worth the risk if there still appears to gains awaiting. The other thing that could affect Friday's action is that Trader Fred's graph appears that it may be just starting into a "wind up" which might carry through the week and "release" on Friday, probably to the upside. I am curious to see if a submodel will signal a buy in the next day or so to capture this.
1. What is the best market entry timing to catch the one big green day on the seasonalty chart--July trading day #9?
2. What equity fund is going to best capture those gains?
I have been trying to correlate this seasonalty with the EbbTracker data for timing, and factor in the dramatic movement of the dollar today (see T2034's Account Talk thread) and its almost certain rebound to determine the best equity fund (percent allocation).
Here's what I'm thinking:
EbbTracker is in pattern 8 for tomorrow. That pattern has been inconsistent, possibly even worth a contrarian play. The C fund has shown the best return for that pattern and correlates with the seasonal advantage of the C fund previously discussed. Since the gains have been coming rapidly and sizeably, I don't want to miss the upswing. Today's loss may be the majority we will experience for now, so "DCAing" in with 50% C seems to be a safe move today for Wednesday's action.
Thursday, the EbbTracker is in pattern 2. This has been very consistent with the largest gains in the I fund. I think a 50%/50% split of C and I will best capture the gains considering the seasonality of the C now and the unsure timing of the dollar rebound. If the dollar rebounds significantly before then, then the I fund may look more attractive.
Friday's got the seasonality advantage, but the Ebbtracker is out of equities and in for the almost certain G penny with a pretty consistent pattern 6. Still, if the market has not shown a good return by this point, Friday could be the day. I will reserve my allocation decision for Friday until the week has played out more. Even though pattern 6 has been down more than up, it has only avoided 0.5% loss, which may be worth the risk if there still appears to gains awaiting. The other thing that could affect Friday's action is that Trader Fred's graph appears that it may be just starting into a "wind up" which might carry through the week and "release" on Friday, probably to the upside. I am curious to see if a submodel will signal a buy in the next day or so to capture this.
qibovin
Member
I'm "all in" with the Ebbtracker and per above plan.
I went with slightly less I because the dollar rebound hasn't come yet, "sold off" a little C to "lock profits" but kept most due to the seasonality favorability for C. I used the difference to buy some S which is the second best performing according to Ebb's pattern #2 and hopefully comes at a bargain given its relatively meager gains compared with C thus far today.
I went with slightly less I because the dollar rebound hasn't come yet, "sold off" a little C to "lock profits" but kept most due to the seasonality favorability for C. I used the difference to buy some S which is the second best performing according to Ebb's pattern #2 and hopefully comes at a bargain given its relatively meager gains compared with C thus far today.
qibovin
Member
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