Qibovin's Account Talk

[qibovin]

My thoughts and/or strategies leading to IFT.

 

[qibovin]

Looks like C and S could both rebound down then continue back up, but C has more potential than S for the short-term upswing. Expect to capture gains today in F while moving that 50% into C and S, but will leave 50% in I until tomorrow. May move all to G then for the penny over the weekend.

 

[qibovin]

Anyone reading this, please comment on the following strategy:

Maximizing reliance on the predictable and minimizing guesswork...

Assumption 1: G pays a penny every Monday
Assumption 2: Stocks are generally trending up but otherwise random over the course of a week

ergo

Move to G by COB every Friday to pick up all the gains of G while still capture 4/5 of whatever the stocks are doing.

By my simple math:

if CSI is expected to do >20%, ignore above strategy
if CSI portfolio does 20%, above strategy will yield 20%
if CSI does 15%, above will do ~16%
if CSI does 10%, above will yield ~12%
if CSI does 5%, above ~ 8%
if CSI is flat, above ~ 4%
if CSI is down 5%, above breaks even
if CSI is down >5%, stay out of CSI (not that you know this)

Bottom line, this appears like a "better than index" strategy in the middle range, and perhaps in a market like the current one in which there are enough gains worth capturing 4/5, but enough uncertainty to have a back-up.

Please point out the flaws in this train of thought.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for joining us qibovin!

Tom

 

[qibovin]

Good timing on the G-fund yesterday! Thinking about nibbling at stocks today as they dip, but don't know if the penny is coming today or tomorrow on the G. I will likely keep 80% in G and distribute the other 20% over C or I. S still looks good long term, but I want to see a bigger dip.

 

[qibovin]

Not a lot of rosy options, but I don't want to hang out in this F'in' fund either.

 

[James48843]

Please point out the flaws in this train of thought.

You never know when you could get a big bump down. It might happen on wedensdays. And then there is something about Thursdays- you know, "Black Thursday" of 1929, and "Black Monday" of 1987.

I remember being in a mutal fund, fully invested, on "Black Monday" in 1987, when everything tanked. I lost about 23% in one day then.

So you never know.

P.S.- nothing at all in conditions today remind me of "Black Thursday's" condition. I remember then- walking down the hall in a University, overhearing one student tell another to put his college grant money into mutual funds because "...They only go up, and you can make 20% by the end of the semester, and you can then pay your bills late and still have money left over!".

That was one or two days before "Black Monday" hit in 1987.

I hear more people talking now about making money in the market, but NOTHING like I did back then.

If you want to see a chart of what COULD happen in one day, see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

 

[qibovin]

Traveling today, so won't be around to watch the fun. I'm playing it somewhat safe, keeping most of the I but hoping for a bit of a short term buying opportunity into C and S.

 

[qibovin]

Maybe my missed deadline yesterday will work to my advantage if I can get another penny out of the F fund and buy I even lower. Tempted to buy a little more I, maybe 20/20/20/40 GCSI or 20/20/60 CSI! Can only watch a few more minutes.

 

[qibovin]

Glad I didn't plunge into I yesterday any more than I did. I don't see an early end to this bloodbath, but I am hoping for a little bounce soon to exit stocks for awhile. When is there going to be a precious metal fund for TSP? Maybe the "A fund" for Au, since G for Gold, C for Copper and S for Silver are already taken? Could go "P fund" for Platinum or Precious metal, but A fund would easier to remember and easier to type into IFTs for the next several+ months.

 

[qibovin]

I'm back in stocks 100% COB today, still confident in a short bounce soon, but I have a pending transfer to 100% G by COB tomorrow (25 May) in case I don't get a chance to look at things again (because preschool "graduation" is tomorrow morning) and most likely even if I do because I'm concerned about the core price index announcement on Friday. Inflation concerns seem to be affecting the market for most investors, though I'm more concerned, long-term, about a recession.

My timing has been intentional but also rather lucky in and out of the F fund which has paid off consistently for me, though not nearly enough to compensate for the beating I've taken in stocks. I hope my timing tomorrow to get out will be good and I will likely bounce back and forth between the G and F trying to catch the downs and sell the ups of the F while timing the penny on the G. I will also look for opportunities for very short gains from partial excursions into CSI, but I don't feel very bullish intermediate term and want to wait for a clear bottom to start thinking long term.

 

[qibovin]

Going half in today. If there's a dip today I want some short term gains, if were really back on the rise I want back in. Basically I don't like sitting around in the G.

 

[qibovin]

Selling I to take some profit, buying a little apparent weakness that hopefully will survive the rest of the trading day and bounce tomorrow in C and/or S, and still taking a big chunk of the penny.

 

[qibovin]

Pardon me. I was overcome by some sort of freakish prime number mood, perhaps for lack of any other stimulating news from the TSP indices. Sadly this roller coaster ride has gotten rather banal.

 

[EW_ret]

Just to let you know I am counting you as having made no interfund transaction for July 7th. Your post time of 12:10 pm did meet my fudge factor that I add to the 12:00 pm EDT deadline. But, you cancelled the original interfund transaction when you started to make the change. By the time you completed the revised allocation it showed it was to be effective for July 10th. You then cancelled the revised transaction because you wanted it for July 7th.

Do I have this correct? Check your TSP account this weekend. It should show your asset allocation as unchanged at 40% G, 20% F, 20% C, 20% S.

 

[qibovin]

Do I have this correct? Check your TSP account this weekend. It should show your asset allocation as unchanged at 40% G, 20% F, 20% C, 20% S.

yes, you are correct. I just confirmed this as well.

 

[qibovin]

I have missed the deadline by a few minutes the last couple of days (my computer clock is slow and I don't have the privileges to change it), but it may have actually been a blessing.

I am going to take advantage of the recent significant drops in CSI and play the seasonality for tomorrow, hoping for a bounce. I will likely take some back out of stocks tomorrow regardless of market direction.

 

[qibovin]

Sometimes I have to remind myself that the G Fund does earn interest. (At least it isn't loosing any.)

 

[qibovin]

Will be "in the field" for the next few days and won't even get a chance to see how the market starts today, but I don't want to be totally out of the game while gone, so sort of straddling the fence, but buying a little back into the market.

 

[EW_ret]

I do record IFTs in the TSPTalk Weekly Tracker that are a few minutes late in posting to your account.