Qibovin's Account Talk

[Dodge_Em]

I'm so confused. Trader Fred is "in", BUT his charts look ominous and Ebb and 12% are running for cover. Still, T2034's all in in and so's GG. I'm pretty excited about dodging the recent drop and hoping to bag a few cents today, so I'm not desparate for gains right now, but I'd like to think that there are some gains to be made from the Trader Fred system, so I'm "50/50" with 20G 30F 45S 5I.

So true ... I am confused.:blink:

I stayed all in on S.

 

[qibovin]

I expect a late rally today in C & S just shy of causing a +FV in I. OSM should do well overnight sustaining the rally in USM.

 

[qibovin]

"Feels" like the market is winding up for something...
Trader Fred's remarks and "cluster" graph would suggest this too.
But which way?

I "took some profits" (hopefully) from C&S today and even sidelined (G) 10% because I like the somewhat delayed reaction of the I fund. If the market tanks today, the negative FV will buffer what I bought today. If it stays up, this should be good for the OSM tonight. If the USM heads down tomorrow, I might be able to dodge it a little in the I and get out OR a good buying op for an FV play if recovery looks imminent. So basically I'm trying to minimize risk while remaining bullish and staying in a position to benefit from a run up.

Who knows, I may go for the penny if all else fails.

 

[qibovin]

Sure I'm nervous, but I'm far from euphoric, so I'm staying (mostly) in.

 

[tsptalk]

Nervous is good - for stocks. When you are no longer nervous, that's when you should get nervous.

 

[qibovin]

I'm playing the FME (full moon effect) per Ebb, but going for the penny (mostly). I'm still inclined toward equities per Trader Fred, though his "system" seems to be more mid-range than day-to-day. Per MADDOG, the "top 2007" is more in F, S and I today than the pack, so I'm going to throw a little that way. I want some in equities, because if they do (surprisingly) take off, I want to be there for it, but if they tank, I'll be comforted by the fact that I'll be DCAing in lower with my contribution at the end of the month.

 

[qibovin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Mark Hulbert - From Mark Hulbert - A superbear turns bullish

When the most bearish of bears capitulates, isn't that the market top?

I should have listened to myself. All the signs were there. Good call Trader Fred and Tom. Well, now I've gotten myself in a pickle. I don't want to miss another run up, but I've nothing left with which to buy the dip...

unless it lasts until the next paycheck withdrawal...:worried:

 

[qibovin]

...bad feeling...Trader fred says buy today and our ilustreous moderator might jump in today despite his gut feeling...RSI factor brought up by Whs00st...Seems like a correction is coming on the short term...Any coments??

Not to mention Ebb's spin chart with all 3 stops for friday....

Trader Fred's buy (and perhaps sell) signals seem to be "leading" by a day or two. Or perhaps they're better short- to mid-range indicators than day-to-day. It helps that the markets are down today, and I may use this as an opportunity to start DCAing in. Certainly Trader Fred seems to have a good "big picture" idea of what's going on in the market that weighs heavier and heavier in my allocation decisions the more he's right. (But there was that short term buy signal earlier in the year that cost him considerably.) Anyway, I tend to think there will be a little bit more downside, then a rally before the holiday weekend. The fact that the G fund will likely pay tomorrow also weighs a little heavier than a penny probably should, but there is so much uncertainty out there, its hard to pass on that security. I will likely start gradually buying as long as the Trader Fred system buy signal is out there so as to be fully in equities come Thursday and Friday before Memorial Day--whether the market goes up or down over the next couple days.

Now, the I fund is starting to look too attractive to pass up, and with a down in the market across the board, it should be a good day in which to dive.

 

[qibovin]

For a good summary of the downside and reasons to be cautious, see Griffin's Acount Talk today:

I am still considering buying today's dip. But I want to see the action before I make that call. There are three possibilities...consolidation...most likely...5-6% correction...inline with...February...very real possibility...decending another 5-6%...keeps sucking you down. The 5.0% thing, China and the weaker six months...controlled step down might be the ticket.

Also, don't forget the Sentiment Survey.

On the upside:
Ebbtracker is in "I" for tomorrow
Trader Fred's system had another submodel buy for today

I like that the Ebbtracker coincides with the G-penny and puts me in a good position to re-evaluate before going into the weekend. I'm thinking about diversifying equity funds because the S is outperforming the I so far this year (and has taken the biggest dip today) and I don't know where the dollar is going from here. I was considering holding back 10%, but for one day, why bother. If the 5-6% correction is coming, I'll have missed today and Friday and have a better idea how much farther we have to go down from there, sitting comfortably in G.

In short, the Sentiment Survey will probably be right on (again) for the week, but tomorrow could be a day to capture some profit.
So, IFT today to 30% C, 40% S, 30% I (or thereabouts) and back to G for Friday most likely.

 

[southbeachrat]

I'm thinking the same thing. Only a few mixed signals. I like that the ebbtracker is in tomorrow and hopefully the USM will find a bottom today. Trader Fred is on a buy too. I will go all in for one day. Currently 35 C, 35 S, 30 I.

 

[FogSailing]

You guys are convincing me. but I'm still undecided..I'd sure like 12%, Thunder, Griffin and few others to show their hands...it doesn't look look like a major selloff before noon YET....wait till 12:01...oh welllll..:nuts:

FS

 

[qibovin]

I might not get a chance to check back in again this morning, so I'm sticking with the Ebbtracker and hoping for the penny tomorrow. 100% G.

 

[qibovin]

A lot of early moves this morning, mostly to the I--Go Ebb!!

I think this is a good idea. At early estimate of -3 cents it will be a bargain at COB--save of course the possibility of a +FV. I'm hoping the USM doesn't rally that much today (especially since I'm not in it), but I'm thinking about the S and maybe even C. The best situation for the I-fund would be a rally in USM just shy of triggering a +FV. If FV is triggered, I will still be good since OSMs will rally big and USMs will no longer be much of a bargain at COB today. Well, there--I just talked myself into 100% I. This Account Talk thread is really useful.

With Ebb and Sentiment both in for Monday, who can argue.
I still think Trader Fred is +/- a day, so yesterday would have been a good sell signal:nuts: or perhaps Monday:blink:. I'll wait and see what the Ebbtracker has for Tuesday and will likely go with the 2 that agree (which means Ebb unless another Trader submodel signals a buy over the weekend--of course then I'll probably wing it since I think Trader Fred's timing is confounded by the TSP deadline with which we have to work.)

I'm waiting until closer to the deadline, but will likely be 100% equities, probably all I. I wish I had whipsaw repellent or at least a detector to help me avoid it. The I fund has the attractive feature of being able to dodge those whipsaws if it can avoid an FV. GL to All.

 

[qibovin]

This time I'm following your lead...

I wouldn't be too hasty. What ever just happened in the USM has got my rethinking. If the USM doesn't finish up strong today, the I may not do as great, but we still might have time to catch the bounce in the USM. A recovery from an 1130 dip will also be more likely to kick in an FV. Hmm:worried:

 

[qibovin]

I'm holding what I got. I'm afraid to move anything in or out of the I fund anymore. I might do well to just leave my 70% in I all year and just move the remaining 30% in and out of C & S based on 2/3 of Ebb, Fred and Sentiment.

 

[FogSailing]

That sounds like a sound plan... The only reason I'm extra extra cautious right now is the seasonaility factor, the Chinese (they seem to scare easily...a sure sign of a non-mature market), and oil\inflation..

But as Rosanna Danna made perfectly clear...It's always something

FS

 

[qibovin]

OK, I'm moving out of I on a day that there is a good chance of +FV and minimal chance of -FV and no FV correction looming. Let's see!

 

[qibovin]

Mostly positive for tomorrow:

Praise God!
And I'm predicting a positive week per Sentiment Survey!

I checked it again and the middle one (S-fund) turned green.

I strongly believe that the I Fund is the place to be in the few weeks. OSMs are way oversold compared to the USMs. The US DOLLAR is ahead of itself. We have 2 key reports coming out PPI .Friday and Fed Minutes tomorrow afternoon.

If times were more stable I would call this a no-brainer. I still may act like it is and move in.

more stable including FV unpredictability:

considering holding the I-fund … anti-China trade bill… contains the following sentence:

“the dollar could come under broad selling pressure on Wednesday"

This would mean a +FV tonight

I’m curious if anyone has seen an FV triggered by dollar alone?

I’m staying all in but may still try to work some back over to the I fund both for the “no brainer” and the increased security from diversification (feels that way, anyway) regardless of what happens over the next couple of days.

 

[12%ayear]

Mostly positive for tomorrow:






more stable including FV unpredictability:

I’m curious if anyone has seen an FV triggered by dollar alone?

I’m staying all in but may still try to work some back over to the I fund both for the “no brainer” and the increased security from diversification (feels that way, anyway) regardless of what happens over the next couple of days.

nice post

 

[qibovin]

nice post

Thanks.
Well, I got tied up and missed the deadline to move some to I, but maybe there'll be a better buying op for I later, and I'm sure there'll be spill over into USM. At least I'm "in." Missing that IFT can be a real bummer.