Qibovin's Account Talk

[qibovin]

That was a good move going 50% C for Wednesday. I only went 20% C because I thought we might see further losses today. You had more guts this time.

This quote from MADDOG's Account Talk got me thinking:

Wow! Look at the percentages that were in the G-fund or F-fund for today. I was flipping around looking to see where folks were and kept seeing that we as a group did a very good job of dodging today's bullet. (Thanks for keeping track Maddog!) Maddog's averages bears it out.

Congrats!

My experience last year (and I think it applies to many others on this site as well) was that I did manage to dodge some down days, but the cost of imperfectly timing re-entry in the market or dodging down days that never came was missing considerable up days. I was going to post something to that effect in that thread today, but decided, before posting it, that it sounded too negative which was not really the intention. I just wanted to make the point that I'll make here: Particularly in a bull market such as we are in, I need to make sure I have a specific, articulable (?sp), compelling reason not to be in the market, because based on the outperformance of just about any remotely aggressive buy-and-hold allocation last year, I can't afford to be out of equities.

 

[Knot_Guilty]

This quote from MADDOG's Account Talk got me thinking:


My experience last year (and I think it applies to many others on this site as well) was that I did manage to dodge some down days, but the cost of imperfectly timing re-entry in the market or dodging down days that never came was missing considerable up days. I was going to post something to that effect in that thread today, but decided, before posting it, that it sounded too negative which was not really the intention. I just wanted to make the point that I'll make here: Particularly in a bull market such as we are in, I need to make sure I have a specific, articulable (?sp), compelling reason not to be in the market, because based on the outperformance of just about any remotely aggressive buy-and-hold allocation last year, I can't afford to be out of equities.

As a TSP Starter and hardly a Talker, I somehow feel compelled to speak. Q, you are absolutely correct; I am one whose experiences last year are the same as yours: I did manage to dodge some down days, but the cost of imperfectly timing re entry in the market or dodging down days that never came was missing considerable up days. And my sentiment and philosophy this year (at least for now) is the same as the point you made and is worth repeating: Particularly in a bull market such as we are in, I need to make sure I have a specific, articulable, compelling reason not to be in the market, because based on the outperformance of just about any remotely aggressive buy-and-hold allocation last year, I can't afford to be out to equities.

Its almost as if you literally were reading my mind word for word. I will definitely be paying more attention to your comments.

 

[qibovin]

I'm taking a little off the table because of the almost sure G penny and I'm shifting a bit more to the I for the "no-brainer."

 

[Birchtree]

Why play with copper when there are loads of silver to be picked up? Today reminds me of July 2002. More big ones to arrive. Remember 2003 was a 3,000 point run almost straight up. And 1995 was a sweet deal.

 

[qibovin]

Why play with copper when there are loads of silver to be picked up? Today reminds me of July 2002. More big ones to arrive. Remember 2003 was a 3,000 point run almost straight up. And 1995 was a sweet deal.

I hope you're right, but I think the masses may be approaching euphoria despite what the Sentiment Survey says. It was done before the gains today. I'm leary. How soon every forgets the Hindenburg Omen.

Still, I'm only 20% in G, pressured by the mass exodus today and justifying it with the penny. You are a real encouragement, Birch. Thanks for your persistent optimism in turbulent seas. In the long run, you're always right.

 

[qibovin]

Goin' with the Ebb. I'm staying mostly I fund because the "post-FV" arguments sound promising (and I don't want to get screwed by another FV if it occurs.) I'm leaving 20% in C because of seasonal advantage and I'm putting 20% from G into S because S has the best past performance for pattern #1 AND it's been lagging C recently and might be a bargain.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

Goin' with the Ebb. I'm staying mostly I fund because the "post-FV" arguments sound promising (and I don't want to get screwed by another FV if it occurs.) I'm leaving 20% in C because of seasonal advantage and I'm putting 20% from G into S because S has the best past performance for pattern #1 AND it's been lagging C recently and might be a bargain.

Thanks, Q, I was thinking and acting the same, even though my at my age I must be much more conservative. You reinforce my decision and it helps, even if its only emotions on my part. I know so little about this stuff.

 

[qibovin]

I'm in class for the next two weeks and don't know if I'll be able to access this board in the mornings. I'll be posting my moves early and (maybe) updating them if necessary/possible. Mostly going with Ebb right now.

 

[qibovin]

I just looked at the most recent Weekly Tracker. This site really does work!! (Thanks, Tom!!) After a little over a year of "learning the ropes" from the masters on TSPTalk, my yearly returns are now (I believe for the first time) above that of the L2040 fund. This has been my benchmark. If I cannot surpass the average annualized return of the L2040, why am I wasting my time. While I have continued in faith that the work would pay off, this is the first time that I have ranked higher on the tracker than L2040. Congrats, too, to the other 45% of those tracked who are currently beating this benchmark. Only the S, I, and Total Global Market lie ahead!

 

[tsptalk]

This site really does work!! (Thanks, Tom!!) After a little over a year of "learning the ropes" from the masters on TSPTalk, my yearly returns are now (I believe for the first time) above that of the L2040 fund.

You're welcome! Did you get the $20 I promised you for saying that?

 

[qibovin]

Did you get the $20 I promised you for saying that?

I'll settle for a coffee mug

 

[qibovin]

Ouch! This week didn't go over well. Every fund is now above me on the tracker. As I see it, I could have bought and held ANY convoluted combination imaginable and I would be better off than I currently am.

But, then, tomorrow's another day. On the half-full side, if you take out all the TSP funds from the tracker, I'm still in the top half of the rankings.

 

[qibovin]

Let's try buy red, sell green, still weighing heavily toward Ebb (S looks best by that, but I looks good, too), Charmed (post-FV I fund), and Sentiment, though watching Fred closely, since he's steadily climbing in the rankings.

 

[qibovin]

Nothing suggests staying in for tomorrow, except maybe Charmed's post-FVC trend, but lately that has been off as well. I'm posting early and may not get a chance to relook this, but even if I did, I'd probably only tweak my G/F ratio based on early movement in the bond market. Right now, I'm going 70% G for Sentiment and Ebb, 30% F for Fred. I see this week falling right in line with the seasonality like over July 4th: Monday and Friday will be the big up days, Tuesday and Thursday will be big downers, and Wednesday could go either way. Shift the data Tom posted for the last week of August one day later to account for the 23 trading days and you'll see the data line up perfectly with the week before Labor Day data. I expect those three up days at the beginning of the September seasonality are shadows based on the fact that these days are frequently that remarkable 75%-positive day before Labor Day weekend. Factor that out since that day will be in August this year, and I'm likely to remain mostly on the sidelines throughout September unless there are big changes in Fred's outlook.
GL2all

 

[qibovin]

Reasons to be in the "I":
Ebb's in I
350z "no brainer"
post-FVC "Charmed" day
most of today's I fund gains are coming from Barclay's overinflated -FV yesterday--OSM are due to recover tonight

Reason to be in equities, period:
may be some early action leading into Pre-Labor Day Friday

Reason to avoid the "I":
who knows how Barclay may "tweak" things

Reasons to be out of equities:
Trader Fred
Seasonality (unless that + trading day 22 really does play out tomorrow)
Sentiment

"in" far outweighs "out" and dodging Wednesday's loss gives me some leeway (besides the feeling on invincibility), so...

100% "in"

And most things say "I" but Barclay's has been no friend lately, and some diversity seems to be protective when the rug gets pulled out, so...

20% C, 10% S, 70% I

 

[budnipper1]

Reasons to be in the "I":
Ebb's in I
350z "no brainer"
post-FVC "Charmed" day
most of today's I fund gains are coming from Barclay's overinflated -FV yesterday--OSM are due to recover tonight

Reason to be in equities, period:
may be some early action leading into Pre-Labor Day Friday

Reason to avoid the "I":
who knows how Barclay may "tweak" things

Reasons to be out of equities:
Trader Fred
Seasonality (unless that + trading day 22 really does play out tomorrow)
Sentiment

"in" far outweighs "out" and dodging Wednesday's loss gives me some leeway (besides the feeling on invincibility), so...

100% "in"

And most things say "I" but Barclay's has been no friend lately, and some diversity seems to be protective when the rug gets pulled out, so...

20% C, 10% S, 70% I

Makes sense to me...

 

[qibovin]

I'm a little curious about this experimental Trader Fred S thing, Charmed's post-FVC play and the contrarian play on Ebb, plus I want to buy this dip. If it continues down, I'll think of it as a DCA (though I'll likely go 100% G tomorrow for the penny Friday.) I'm going to take a little profit in the F and put it into equities as I reallocate CSI based on seasonality and Ebbtracker percentages, ie 30/40/10/5/15 GFCSI.

 

[qibovin]

I'm concerned about an ugly negative day that stands out on the seasonality chart for September on trading day 6 (tomorrow). Dr. Faustus' incipient two-day Ebbchart stats appear to support this, and Trader Fred is still in the F Fund (and there is no mention on his comments or update from Tom on the status of the experimental S-thing). Additionally, it being September, I'm looking for an excuse to get out of equities.

Still, Ebb's in I, and Sentiment's in S. I anticipate a turn-around after the deadline and a +FV to save the I. This is another reason to take a little out of the I and lock in the +FV--all wishful thinking, of course.

So thinking right now...

30% F, 15% C, 5% S, 50% I for Tuesday.

Scratch that. With the markets continuing to tumble, I need to relook this. I don't want to be out for the bounce, and Paladin's got a good point about a positive 9/11 anniversary. I'll watch a few more leaders for my cue, but I'm leaning toward an equity mix of around 25/25/50 CSI.

 

[qibovin]

I think heading for the sidelines is a prudent course at this juncture. The F fund, with Ebb (and Faustus sub-analysis) heading that way and recent buy signals from Trader Fred, appears to be quite popular today. Still, I have been burned in the F-fund too many times and seen it move unexpectedly and dramatically. I want to be in a "safe haven" tomorrow, so I'll cut it with some G-fund. There is a slight possibility of the G-penny by my limited calculations, and I'll be OK with watered-down F-fund returns if it is up.

On the other hand, Sentiment is, of course, still in S, Trader Fred's lost S-fund subsystem may still be on a buy (??haven't heard an update from Tom since the buy signal was mentioned), and, as 12% points out, the S is the big underperformer recently. Interestingly, in Dr. Faustus' 2-day Ebb pattern analysis (Ebb^2), the S-fund was the only equity showing a gain for tomorrows combo, and the Ebbtracker itself shows a smaller percent negative and smaller total loss in the S-fund than the others. Given all that I will try a little S-fund for tomorrow.

40% G, 40% F, 20% S

 

[qibovin]

I'm glad I left a little in the I fund today, as long as USM holds up enough to prevent a -FV at the end of the day.

Reasons to be in for tomorrow:
1. Good point made somewhere about "the masses" continuing to trickle in over today and perhaps tomorrow.
2. Sentiment is "in" for the week. I like to think that means the week overall will be positive, so, even though we've had a big up day (and continue to go up today), any downward action will hopefully be lower in magnitude short term.

Reasons to be out:
1. Ebb is out, and Dr. Faustus' 2-day patterns look no better.
2. Trader Fred is out.

Uncertainties:
1. Trader Fred's oscillator thing-a-ma-jig is teetering near the center line and could go either way or hang out relatively flat for a day or two.
2. Further Ebb-analysis shows that pattern 6 on tap for tomorrow has occurred on Thursday 3 times since January. The overall gain for CSI was +0.11%, +0.16%, and +0.36%.
Also, there has only been one time that 4 safe-haven patterns have occurred back-to-back, and that was in August. Overall during those 4 days, C and S were positive 3/4 days, but there was one huge negative day in the middle which resulted in an overall negative return for the S fund, but still slightly positive overall for the C-fund. The I-fund was negative 3/4 days and overall. Day 3 was positive for all three funds (?this Friday?).
There was also a three-day safe-haven run in May in which the middle day was positive.

Hmm,

Overall hope that any short-term losses will not outweigh the gains, but need to continue cautiously after (presumably) missing most of the gains today. It's not worth the risk of a really ugly day to try to jump all in to catch the rest of the rally, but I will sell a little profit in the I and try to pick up some S and C. If tomorrow's the really ugly day, then I'll probably go back mostly or all in. If its up, then I'll run to the penny for Friday.

GL