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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Show-me, As you already know, the good news are Nikkei closed positive +268.74 for a 1.69% gain, and the Euro appears to be rising against the dollar. Now we have to deal with the U.S. and European markets. Please read my previous post, because any ideas can be very valuable in trying to gauge the market behavior. We will all appreciate your input. Thanks.Good post, ATCJeff! Now, this doesn't mean Jeff and I are trying to make chaos. The IRAN issue will probably take time to develop, etc. If anyone out there knows something we might be missing, do post it here for the best short-term course of action.
Show-me
Well-known member
sponsor,
O'boy I'm horrible at giving individual advise. Look at your leader board. Most of us went to safety for one reason or another. Some sort of capital preservation. Mine was simple I'm up of 4.5% for the month of Aug., a generally poor month for the market.
You will have to weight the risk/reward for yourself. To me the risk is high and the reward COULD be high........or NOT. Market can turn on a dime. Up in the morn. down in the afternoon.
All three charts still look good to me long term. The trend is still going up. Things to look at. It is easy to focus on just one side or the other (bull/bear). Long term I'm bullish. Short term I'm cautious. Long term I think the dollar will get weaker.
Japan follows our market. Europe sometimes lead us and sometimes waits and follows us.
I do all my IFT about a half hour before the deadline so that I get the full picture as best I can. I use this link for market action and this link for currency action. I use this link for premarket action. I use this link for my chart action. $SPX = C fund. $EWM = S fund. EFA = I fund. $USD = US dollar.
- After Labor day is generally weak. Trader come off of vacation and clean out their portfolios.
- Japan is slowing down. US is slowing down. Globally their is concern. ECB is pausing, Japan is pausing, US is pausing their rate hikes. I'm not a expert but this makes me cautious. Fed may have went to far on the rate hikes.
- IRAN (wild card) Who knows what will happen.
- N. KOREA (wild card)
- Tom is usually on with him market comments.
- STA that I quote often.
Sorry I can't be more specific but I gotta get ready for work. Feel free to PM me if you don't want to post on the MB. Good luck and see ya around.U.S. Equity market futures (for the DOW, Nasdaq, and S7P500) are now positive. The U.S. traders apparently like the economic numbers that just came out. Most numbers are in line with expectations. The PCE deflator number that measures inflation came in a little lower than expected and in-line for the core PCE deflator. If I get a good article to back this up I will post it. These numbers support the general idea that inflation is contained and that a FED rise probably will not be necessary next time. I have heard some currency analysts say that if the FED doesn't raise rates or if it pauses, the dollar should continue to decline. So, watch what happens to the currency levels today, because it could also affect a positive or negative FV for the I-fund. The U.S. markets could continue to rally today and tomorrow if this keeps up, but I will decide what to do later at around 11:45 EST or so, because I want to see how the markets behave in the morning. All of this does not mean that markets will continue to rise in a straight line. Surprise do happen in the marketplace! The Stock indiices are overbought, and some sort of correction is expected (see also Tom Crowley's commentary)Show-me, I liked you advise. Thank you. There is no significant disagreement between your position and mine. While you posted this, I was writing my own ideas, because this can help others to understand better what to do if they wish to play the I-fund (or the stock funds for that matter -- at their own risk, of course!). I will probably exit completely to the G-fund today or tomorrow, for all of your reasons. Keep sharing your thoughts!sponsor,
O'boy I'm horrible at giving individual advise. Look at your leader board. Most of us went to safety for one reason or another. Some sort of capital preservation. Mine was simple I'm up of 4.5% for the month of Aug., a generally poor month for the market.
You will have to weight the risk/reward for yourself. To me the risk is high and the reward COULD be high........or NOT. Market can turn on a dime. Up in the morn. down in the afternoon.
All three charts still look good to me long term. The trend is still going up. Things to look at. It is easy to focus on just one side or the other (bull/bear). Long term I'm bullish. Short term I'm cautious. Long term I think the dollar will get weaker.
Japan follows our market. Europe sometimes lead us and sometimes waits and follows us.
I do all my IFT about a half hour before the deadline so that I get the full picture as best I can. I use this link for market action and this link for currency action. I use this link for premarket action. I use this link for my chart action. $SPX = C fund. $EWM = S fund. EFA = I fund. $USD = US dollar.
- After Labor day is generally weak. Trader come off of vacation and clean out their portfolios.
- Japan is slowing down. US is slowing down. Globally their is concern. ECB is pausing, Japan is pausing, US is pausing their rate hikes. I'm not a expert but this makes me cautious. Fed may have went to far on the rate hikes.
- IRAN (wild card) Who knows what will happen.
- N. KOREA (wild card)
- Tom is usually on with him market comments.
- STA that I quote often.
Sorry I can't be more specific but I gotta get ready for work. Feel free to PM me if you don't want to post on the MB. Good luck and see ya around.
Show-me
Well-known member
sponsor,
Another thing I have noticed. I have be increasingly disappointed in the Nikkei's action in the I fund. It doesn't control the direction on the I fund as much as Europe (much smaller portion). I have seen the Nikkei be up like today and Europe be down and erase Asia's gains. Also the Nikkei will be up big in the morning and tank in the afternoon. Europe is the one I really watch for the I fund and the US Dollar Index.
Good luck!Show-me, I am slowly assimilating the many factors that we have to consider. You are spot-on. You make a very valid point!. Percentage-wise, Japan does not weigh as heavily as the other countries in Europe that comprise the I-fund. Let's keep watching and raising whatever flags need to be raised! (Hope it is the Green Flag!)sponsor,
Another thing I have noticed. I have be increasingly disappointed in the Nikkei's action in the I fund. It doesn't control the direction on the I fund as much as Europe (much smaller portion). I have seen the Nikkei be up like today and Europe be down and erase Asia's gains. Also the Nikkei will be up big in the morning and tank in the afternoon. Europe is the one I really watch for the I fund and the US Dollar Index.
Good luck!
Europe is the one I really watch for the I fund and the US Dollar Index.
Has anyone ever compared the US dollar index with the EAFE? That is, compared the list of countries and their weightings for the two? It would be interesting to know how closely the dollar index matches the currency moves for the EAFE countries. It probably isn't exact which means that Barclays effectively calculates their own "dollar index" every day using the exact countries and weightings that make up EAFE. I wonder if its possible to get that info anywhere.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I suppose this is the best we can do. The NYBOT weights the Euro almost twice as heavily as EAFE and both the Yen and Pound only half as much. The remaining countries (17% for NBOT and 9% of EAFE) are completely different. Since there is no practical way to construct a true EAFE "dollar index, we'll have to assume that this will work. Anyway, its good enough that I'll use it instead of the YAHOO graphs I have been using, so thanks for putting it up.
Gilligan
Member
10:45 ET early estimate: Pacific is up 1.2%, Dollar is Down 0.15%, Europe is down but still open.
Looks like the I fund should gain a few cents.I see that, and I feel that with the non-inflationary numbers coming out in the U.S., the dollar should have declined or should have given clearer signs of a decline and I have not seen this. Because of the constraints involved in doing the transfer before noon EST, I prefer to miss some upside than to risk the current gains. As of now, I am moving 75% to G and will leave 25 percent in I. Good Luck to all!Similar threads
