Playing the I fund

[airlift]

Let's see. Gold is up, dollar is down, all other indicators say LAUNCH! We got the best seat in the house for watching the market's fireworks today.

I agree with you! This morning at about 8:45 AM, I read an article in the Bloomberg.com financial website which could be very significant as a turning point in the currencies. It quoted a currency analyst who works for Daiwa Securities stating that he expects the BOJ to raise rates in July. While this is not new information, it is consistent with the intended rise of the YEN. Morover, the article states that this would boost the YEN to 113.50 per dollar (currently @ approximately 116.051 per dollar. The future rise of the YEN might not be in a straight line, but perhaps we have seen the bottom of the YEN for some time to come; and, I hope this contributes positively to our profitable expectations for the I-fund for the second half of 2006.

 

[Pilgrim]

U.S dollar tanked on the news. Great day for I-fund, EAFE now heading straight up.

 

[sugarandspice]

Up 1.777% for today. A gambler's got to love those last 3 numbers 777.

 

[ebbnflow]

I hope the I Fund doesn't get shortchanged today. But for tomorrow, it does seem to be the best horse to be on.

 

[Wheels]

I hope the I Fund doesn't get shortchanged today. But for tomorrow, it does seem to be the best horse to be on.

The I fund does "owe" 10 cents or so. But they may not take it for a day or two. Particularly in light of today's huge gains.

Dave
<><

 

[Wheels]

Yikes. 19.13. The I fund is now valued roughly .40 cents too high. For those of you who were in the I fund today but out tomorrow you made an absolute killing.


Dave
<><

P.S. Of course if you were out of the I fund today but in tomorrow - look out below.

 

[ebbnflow]

Yikes indeed, +.63 cents!

That's the best gain yet for the past three months.

 

[Birchtree]

Rock on Nikky - currently up 372

 

[JOVARN]

I am 70% S 30% I for some time now, and have taken a beating over the past month or so. My plan is to ride this out. What is your guess on the split for the I fund VS the S fund
just putting it out for comments
Thanks

 

[Hawkeye]

I have been 100% I for over a year now... I am ridin out the storm.. Although I am starting to wonder if that is just plain stupid...

(im open to suggestions)


good luck all!

 

[Spaf]

Jovarn,
Last 12 months S=18% where I=29%. They are both good funds to hold. I-fund has that double edge so you need to monitor the $. For us that trade, it all depends on the fundamentals + the technical analysis.
We have market index funds and, so they are not sector funds. I don't sell under the purchase price, not unless the fund is a real dog, and that is where stops are used.

Hawkeye,
Never sell low! TSP equity funds will bounce back. If you want to buy and hold, see the L-funds, or TSPTalks long term allocation on the home page Trading is good too, ya just gotta learn how. That is what this site is somewhat about.
We are not financial advisors, so no advice, just opinion! OK!

 

[Fivetears]

The NIKKEI is at 343.64 (2.27%) as post time stamped.
The AORD is at 87.400 (1.76%) as post time stamped.

 

[JOVARN]

http://www.tribstar.com/news/feeds/...ction/D8IIGVCO0.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview
On the economic outlook, the Fed said: "Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."

Jeffrey Hirsch of the Almanac Investor Newsletter said, "When the market rallies because the Fed says the economy is weakening, you are in trouble."

Still, international stock markets showed strength on Friday, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.5 percent in Tokyo and the German DAX 30 up 1.1 percent in Frankfurt.

Dollar weakness continued, with the euro up 0.4 percent at $1.2712. Gold futures rallied $14.30 to $603.2 an ounce in early trade.
_______________________________________
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2PabSonzsnM&refer=
The Fed won't kill the global economy, which is what the market had feared,'' said Hans Kunnen, who helps oversee $70 billion at Colonial First State in Sydney. ``The outlook for growth remains in place and history suggests that when the Fed stops tightening, shares everywhere go for a run.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index climbed 3.7 percent to 126.69 at 7:16 p.m. in Tokyo, bringing its advance for the week to 4.5 percent. That would be the biggest one-day jump since May 19, 2004, and the largest weekly rise since Jan. 6. Ten shares gained for each that fell today.
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http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=956052006
The MSCI's key index for shares of Asia's biggest companies outside Japan jumped 2.4 per cent to a three-week high.

The prospect that interest rates and borrowing costs may be close to peaking also drove US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds to higher levels. The weak dollar bolstered gold and a report showing stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth in the United States pushed up copper.

 

[JOVARN]

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060629/1151616788363.html?.v=1

INTERESTING TAKE ON THE PSYCH SIDE OF THE MARKET
This puts to doubt whether we will see another rate hike in August and traders are still left guessing. However, unless Bernanke really wants to be known as mixed message Ben, we have probably seen the last of the Fed’s rate hikes.

 

[JOVARN]

THIS IS A NICE ARTICLE THAT TOUCHES ON THE I FUND RELATED COUNTRIES AND CHARTS AS WELL. A BIT OVER MY HEAD BUT I AM STILL WORKING ON IT.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060629/1151616788363.html?.v=1

INTERESTING TAKE ON THE PSYCH SIDE OF THE MARKET
This puts to doubt whether we will see another rate hike in August and traders are still left guessing. However, unless Bernanke really wants to be known as mixed message Ben, we have probably seen the last of the Fed’s rate hikes.

 

[airlift]

THIS IS A NICE ARTICLE THAT TOUCHES ON THE I FUND RELATED COUNTRIES AND CHARTS AS WELL. A BIT OVER MY HEAD BUT I AM STILL WORKING ON IT.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060629/1151616788363.html?.v=1

INTERESTING TAKE ON THE PSYCH SIDE OF THE MARKET
This puts to doubt whether we will see another rate hike in August and traders are still left guessing. However, unless Bernanke really wants to be known as mixed message Ben, we have probably seen the last of the Fed’s rate hikes.

This is a good article. I haven't read the others you posted, but this is thr type of awareness we need to have in order to gauge the direction of the dollar and its impact on the I-fund. For me it is difficult to trade the I-fund on a short-term basis because the difficulties are compounded by the currency shifts and FV. But the second half seems to be quite favorable for the I-fund. Yesterday I heard that the United Arab Emirates are going to take 10% of what they have in dollars and will shift it to Euros. Japan an other countries are doing some of this. This means that they are selling dollars to buy other currencies and gold, etc. Let's hope this doesn't become a dramatic exodus from the dollar. The interdependency of the G7 or G8 economies might help to avoid the extremes. Of course, I think that if the U.S. dollar were to be abandoned that would be disastrous for us. But I believe that the global interactions will be able to avoid a real catastophy.

 

[Wheels]

Looks like the I fund could have another good today, even if they take back the whole 40 cents today. The Far East portion of the EAFE was up over 4 percent.

Dave
<><

 

[ebbnflow]

Looks like the I fund could have another good today, even if they take back the whole 40 cents today. The Far East portion of the EAFE was up over 4 percent.

Dave
<><

Just checked: MCSI EAFE = +3.585%

Wheels, that's right, so I'm hoping they take that FV now and be done with it. We can all breath easier for next week.

 

[airlift]

What formula do they use to set the FV rate? If the dollar has been dropping for two days, for instance, and the investor has been in the I-fund for some time, why would FV be given or taken away so frequently? Thanks to anyone who might help me understand this!

 

[SkyPilot]

FV is balanced everyday by Barclay's. Sometimes it will make a difference, sometimes not. Therefore, each days FV balance is independent, and is not really ever over or under as it appears to some (as in the I fund is "owed" or "owes"a certain amount). *This is my observation, and some may disagree with great fervor.

You might visit Barclay's website for more info, but pretty sure that each component of the EAFE is adjusted relative to the USD, and considering the number of components and various weighted percentages, it must be quite complex.

The adjustment is most dramatic when the value of the USD or the EAFE index makes a substantial move after the close of the EAFE markets overseas (appx. 11 CST?).

For more info, visit the I fund page at TSP.gov