Playing the I fund

[Gilligan]

We only export 3 things; jobs, debt and airplanes.

And plane sales are down 20%. :worried:

You must of never visited a port or a border crossing.

 

[Wizard]

You must of never visited a port or a border crossing.

You mean the 60% of cargo ships that come full and leave empty and the crews complaining about the horrible trip riding high because they are empty?

Is that what you are referring too?

Let me guess we are exporting high quality hot air?

Of every 100 containers that crossed the Pacific Ocean from Asia to North America last year, 60 came back empty, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants, a research organization and consultancy.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/29/business/ships.php

60% of the ships go back to Asia with nothing....nothing.....nota - EMPTY. Why would that be?

 

[Wizard]

You need to get out of Ohio and visit factories overseas. They are buying industrial machinery to make their products. Cap-ex spending will lead the economy going forward. And when you KMA be mindful not to leave any hickies.

How is that helping the U.S.? The wages are staying over there. Let me guess they will come here to go on vacation? Do you want to supersize that to a triple cheeseburger? :blink: But guess what? A burger maker is considered a manufactoring job now. That will make things like better........:embarrest:

 

[JOVARN]

the could not afford to go back empty

 

[Wizard]

the could not afford to go back empty

Really? Does anybody have facts on this board or do you just jot down the first thing that pops into your mind?

I guess the Drewry Shipping Consultants does not have the info that you got. :nuts:

Spill the beans.

Let me guess - they can afford to sit in port for a couple months waiting for whatever we export to be ordered?

 

[Wizard]

When you run a negative

$65,000,000,000 trade balance each month. (That is 2.14B a DAY). Billion

You outsourced over 3M jobs in 3 years.

You closed 300 factories in 3 years.

Just be happy 100% of the cargo ships don't go back empty.

But their working on it.

 

[Wizard]

Manufactoring lay offs for this week - this is only about 10% of the report.

Remember this is just for 7 days. :blink:

You may want to read it. You will see "additional jobs" and "more jobs" over and over again.

Nova Chemicals Corporation
Coraopolis, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Bayport, TX
Sarnia, ON

Nova Chemicals Corp., which makes polymers for plastic and foam product manufacturers, on Monday said it intends to cut an additional 250 jobs as part of a broader restructuring and cost-cutting plan. In January, the company announced the closure of its Chesapeake, Va., site, which slashed 125 jobs. The latest round of job cuts will be at a number of locations, but mostly affect its corporate services unit in Pittsburgh. The company also said it plans fold its styrene monomer plant in Bayport, Texas, and its solid polystyrene plant in Sarnia, Ontario, as well as its 50/50 joint venture with European chemical maker Ineos, into a separate unit called Styrenix. Nova Chemicals said the decisions will help the company focus on its advantaged ethylene and polyethylene position, as well as expandable polystyrene and related products.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: AFX International Focus - June 26, 2006



Amcast Industrial Corporation
Fremont, IN
Gas City, IN

Amcast Industrial Corp. will close its Grant County factory Friday and lay off 200 workers. The company, which makes aluminum wheels for General Motors vehicles, filed for bankruptcy protection in December, four months after it emerged from another bankruptcy. Amcast's 75,000-square-foot Gas City plant opened in 1992, and the company plans to sell off the remaining equipment. The company cited a loss of revenue from GM, its biggest customer, in its most recent request for bankruptcy protection.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - June 29, 2006




Berkline/BenchCraft Holdings, Llc
Morristown, TN
Baldwyn, MS

Berkline/BenchCraft LLC will lay off all 400 workers at its furniture plant in Baldwyn as it prepares to shut down the 10-year-old facility on Aug. 26. The president and CEO of Morristown, Tenn.-based company, said the decision was prompted by increased reliance on offshore resources, ongoing efforts to boost internal efficiencies and the effects of recent bankruptcies of several large retail customers. Berkline has two other plants in Mississippi. The one Blue Mountain has 800 workers, and the one in Ripley has about 1,000. Berkline makes recliners, sofas and other furniture.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - June 29, 2006




Dan River Inc.
Danville, VA
Brookneal, VA

Dan River Inc. announced plans Friday to close its Brookneal plant late this summer, laying off about 280 employees. The plant is the last Dan River manufacturing plant in the United States and the town's largest employer. It makes sheets, pillowcases and other bedding, including Disney, Nickelodeon, and Martha Stewart brands.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - June 24, 2006



FKI Logistex, Inc.
St. Louis, MO
Frederick, MD

FKI Logistex, which manufactures integrated handling systems, is cutting 70 jobs at its plant in Frederick. The company's products range from conveyers and cranes to robotics and sorters. They are used by airports for baggage handling and the postal system for sorting and moving packages. FKI Logistex, based in St. Louis, said it is consolidating manufacturing from the Frederick plant to sites in Danville, Ky., and Cincinnati. The Kentucky plant will increase by 30 jobs. Research and development and engineering jobs will remain in Frederick. Financial and operations will be moving from Frederick.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: Knight-Ridder Tribune Business News - June 15, 2006



Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Irving, TX
Neenah, WI

Kimberly-Clark Corp. plans to eliminate about 150 more jobs in Neenah in the next nine months, including about 50 positions next month in research and engineering. The announcement Thursday from the Dallas-based consumer products company adds to the news in March that it plans to close or sell operations in the Neenah area that employ 675 of its 5,000 Wisconsin employees. The latest cuts are part of a move to "further consolidate and integrate various business teams in its North Atlantic Personal Care and Family Care organizations," the maker of Kleenex and Scott tissues said in a news release. The company said nearly a year ago that it aims to reduce payroll by 10%, or 6,000 jobs, by 2008.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - June 30, 2006



MANUFACTURING


Pendleton Woolen Mills, Inc.
Portland, OR
Bellevue, NE

Pendleton Woolen Mills will close its Bellevue women's wear factory, its last U.S. clothing plant, in August, throwing about 50 people out of work. It will be the fourth Pendleton plant in the area to close in 10 years, ending a history of Pendleton making clothing in Nebraska that dates to 1946. The Portland, Ore., company blamed the Bellevue closing on the continuing need to reduce costs in light of the increasing flood of lower-cost imports, particularly from China. Pendleton still operates woolen mills in Oregon and Washington that make its signature woolen blankets.

Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: Omaha World Herald - June 29, 2006



MANUFACTURING


Solar Corporation
Libertyville, IL

Solar Corporation, which employs about 300, has been laying off workers the past few weeks and has informed employees the plant will close Friday. A spokesman for the company said the business has been losing money the past two years and can not find a buyer. The company designs and manufactures injection-molded decorative plastic parts that are used primarily in the automotive and home entertainment products industries. Services provided by Solar include engineering, molding, painting, vacuum forming, and wrapping.

Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: Chicago Daily Herald - June 21, 2006

 

[Fivetears]

Outsourcing and energy, not interest rates, dominate discussion about the economy at Fortune's Brainstorm conference.
Forget about the Fed. Attendees at Brainstorm had longer-term economic concerns. Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the biggest threat to U.S competitiveness in the global economy is the continued shift of jobs overseas.

"The potential shift is massive, dwarfing anything we've seen in the past couple of years," he said. Blinder estimated that between 28 million and 42 million jobs in the U.S. are "potentially offshorable" and warned that it may not just be manufacturing and call center jobs that are at risk.

He said that any services job that doesn't require a large degree of personal service could wind up being lost to competitors and he thinks that a lot of white-collar workers are not prepared for this.

"To put it crudely, a lot of people like us are not used to the idea of competing with people in India, the Philippines and China for jobs," he said.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/fed_brainstorm/index.htm

 

[airlift]

I am guessing +.26 cents for the I Fund from 19.13 to 19.39. I think we still have a +1.375% FV hanging up there. I may be wrong and I hope I'm wrong, since +.30 cents sound much better than +.26 cents.

Sponsor, I choose to trade between the I Fund and the F Fund only. That's only because I'm more familiar with the I Fund than most funds, so I stuck with it. We all have our own risk/pain tolerance :blink: and strategies. I wouldn't recommend my own strategy of trying to time the market if you're new at it. I make an average of two IFTs a week, but it's very risky. Before I tried my tracker for this year, I did last year's TSP first, got my timing right, tweaked it, tweaked it some more. When I'm satisfied that I'm getting over 70% of my picks right, I'm done. If you check the price chart for the I Fund that I posted, even on a couple terrible months (May/June) you still have a 50/50 chance of getting your picks right. Just make sure any system you develope gets you way over 50%.

Ebbnflow,
I am going to take the liberty of asking you what signs or criteria you look for in order to make an interfund transfer (IFT). I am aware of the risks, and whatever I do will be on my watch. Perhaps it is feasible to transfer a small % using your system, instead of risking it all! If you have covered this area in previous posts, I will appreciate your reference so that I can read the explanation without much of a hassle to you.

Thank you.

 

[airlift]

The weak dollar will begin to help the SPX in the second half. Gotta enjoy them exports.

From my vantage point sitting in the C fund - some observations recently.

Who liked the I fund at $20.95 - everybody including Wimpy.

Who liked the I fund at $18.40 - very few excluding Wimpy. He has the Maginot Line. The come back trail may be a short one.

You seem to be mostly in the C-fund? I also like the C-fund, but not right now. It's your decision, but I could suggest that you might consider increasing your total returns by keeping some of your funds in both the I-fund as well as the C-fund. By doing this, you take advantage of the I-fund with a weak dollar (Exports from the U.S., are favored by this and this in turn, will help the C-fund do well, which in turn, helps our U.S. economy). However, this is a process and not a fixed date. By the time the C-fund improves, your returns theoretically could be higher in total, by putting some funds in the I-fund (of course, this assumes a weakening dollar in relation to other currencies for the second half of 2006).

 

[grandma]

You seem to be mostly in the C-fund? I also like the C-fund, but not right now. It's your decision, but I could .........

Sponsor, you might like to do some research on Birch's posts regarding his stance. He is our perma-C-bull; incorrigible, :cheesy:, loveable, loyal, stock knowledgeable ...and... still has a balance -

 

[airlift]

Sponsor, you might like to do some research on Birch's posts regarding his stance. He is our perma-C-bull; incorrigible, :cheesy:, loveable, loyal, stock knowledgeable ...and... still has a balance -

Oh...! Gotcha!!

 

[Birchtree]

Sponsor,

Actually I treat my investments as a family affair. I'm concentrated in the large-cap arena just in case the mood does shift in my direction. My wife has a position in small-caps and international fund. I've been moving some money from the small-cap fund to the international fund - caught the bottom of the AEPGX fund. My last purchase of the C fund was at $13.63 and my desire is for my next purchase to still be under $14.00. But I have no control over fate as a buy and holder of the C fund - I prefer to accumulate awhile longer. I have a long term strategy in mind and the patience and perserverence to wait for the market to come to me. In the meantime DCA is my silver thread.

Dennis

 

[airlift]

Sponsor,

Actually I treat my investments as a family affair. I'm concentrated in the large-cap arena just in case the mood does shift in my direction. My wife has a position in small-caps and international fund. I've been moving some money from the small-cap fund to the international fund - caught the bottom of the AEPGX fund. My last purchase of the C fund was at $13.63 and my desire is for my next purchase to still be under $14.00. But I have no control over fate as a buy and holder of the C fund - I prefer to accumulate awhile longer. I have a long term strategy in mind and the patience and perserverence to wait for the market to come to me. In the meantime DCA is my silver thread.

Dennis

It makes sense!

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow,
I am going to take the liberty of asking you what signs or criteria you look for in order to make an interfund transfer (IFT). I am aware of the risks, and whatever I do will be on my watch. Perhaps it is feasible to transfer a small % using your system, instead of risking it all! If you have covered this area in previous posts, I will appreciate your reference so that I can read the explanation without much of a hassle to you.

Thank you.

First and foremost is the US dollar which of course is affected by a lot of factors: interest rates, bond yields, the economy's growth rate, oil, gold, yen, euros, natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes), etc., and the list goes on. They are all tied together, one goes up, the other goes down. We have to factor in how the Japanese and European markets are doing. Trying to anticipate what the Federal Reserve will do in their next meeting can also help us time the market. It even pays to be on top of hot breaking news that can affect the market. Then you have to weigh in the psychological aspect of trading -- market/investor sentiment. I think Tom has more than covered this in his market analysis and TSP Talk Sentiment Survey. I don't know what kind of disposition you should be in, but after you put it all together, be prepared to lose your shirt nonetheless, just in case. :blink:

 

[airlift]

First and foremost is the US dollar which of course is affected by a lot of factors: interest rates, bond yields, the economy's growth rate, oil, gold, yen, euros, natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes), etc., and the list goes on. They are all tied together, one goes up, the other goes down. We have to factor in how the Japanese and European markets are doing. Trying to anticipate what the Federal Reserve will do in their next meeting can also help us time the market. It even pays to be on top of hot breaking news that can affect the market. Then you have to weigh in the psychological aspect of trading -- market/investor sentiment. I think Tom has more than covered this in his market analysis and TSP Talk Sentiment Survey. I don't know what kind of disposition you should be in, but after you put it all together, be prepared to lose your shirt nonetheless, just in case. :blink:

All of the funds in TSP are affected in some measure by the factors you have mentioned. However, in my opinion, the I-fund is particularly affected by the relative value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies. If relative growth in the world economies should recover faster than the U.S., this would add to its profitability. Significantly, most market analysts that I have seen or read, agree that the dollar is dropping, and will keep on doing so for most of 2006. In this atmosphere, the i-fund is expected to do quite well for many reasons yo have mentioned. Previously, you stated that you did some checking of the TSP returns, did you backtest your system with any particular software, or are you flying by the seat of your pants, as pilots say?

 

[ebbnflow]

Sponsor, I didn't use any software, just did it manually. More about the FV:

Check MSCI EAFE from link below after 2:00 P.M. E.T.

http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html <-- you can change the date to check past results, but I'll post it here for your benefit:

June 26, MON +.006%
June 27, TUE -.109%
June 28, WED -.732%
June 29, THU +1.777%
June 30, FRI +3.585%

This is what happened last week on how the FV built up to .42 cents.

MON -- 18.54 + .006% = no cents, instead we got +.01 cent or FV of +.01 cent to 18.55
TUE -- 18.55 - 1.09% = -.02 cents, instead we got -.16 cents or FV of -.14 cents to 18.39
WED -- 18.39 - .732% = -.13 cents, instead we got +.11 cents or FV of +.24 cents to 18.50
THU -- 18.50 + 1.777% = +.32 cents, instead we got +.63 cents or FV of +.31 cents to 19.13
FRI -- 19.13 + 3.585% = +.68 cents, instead we got +.26 cents or FV of -.42 cents to 19.39

If we add up the FVs from Monday thru Thursday (+.01 - .14 + .24 + .31), it equals the FV of +.42 cents we had to give back on Friday. :blink:

 

[CheapShot]

When you run a negative

$65,000,000,000 trade balance each month. (That is 2.14B a DAY). Billion

You outsourced over 3M jobs in 3 years.

You closed 300 factories in 3 years.

Just be happy 100% of the cargo ships don't go back empty.

But their working on it.

Sounds like money could be made if we figured out what to ship back, maybe trash, other's people garbage can be a treasure, environmental rules are more lax in these other third world countries.

 

[airlift]

Sponsor, I didn't use any software, just did it manually. More about the FV:

Check MSCI EAFE from link below after 2:00 P.M. E.T.

http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html <-- you can change the date to check past results, but I'll post it here for your benefit:

June 26, MON +.006%
June 27, TUE -.109%
June 28, WED -.732%
June 29, THU +1.777%
June 30, FRI +3.585%

This is what happened last week on how the FV built up to .42 cents.

MON -- 18.54 + .006% = no cents, instead we got +.01 cent or FV of +.01 cent to 18.55
TUE -- 18.55 - 1.09% = -.02 cents, instead we got -.16 cents or FV of -.14 cents to 18.39
WED -- 18.39 - .732% = -.13 cents, instead we got +.11 cents or FV of +.24 cents to 18.50
THU -- 18.50 + 1.777% = +.32 cents, instead we got +.63 cents or FV of +.31 cents to 19.13
FRI -- 19.13 + 3.585% = +.68 cents, instead we got +.26 cents or FV of -.42 cents to 19.39

If we add up the FVs from Monday thru Thursday (+.01 - .14 + .24 + .31), it equals the FV of +.42 cents we had to give back on Friday. :blink:

Ebbnflow,

I have studied and compared these numbers you posted above carefully, and I have compared them with my tracking of the EAFE Index, and with the final and corrected return numbers that Tom Crowley posts on a daily basis. There is no doubt that this represents a very precise and detailed effort. In addition, this is the type of tracking which I consider indispensable to perform, in order to understand the exact trend that includes the corrections and application of Fair Value (FV) to the I-Fund.

However, I was not able to see and understand your entry and exit points from this information. I know that this :blink: information is very important information that can be very helpful to the small number of colleagues and TSP participants that appear to be reading, following, and posting their views on this I-Fund thread! Can you share this with us? I know that others will be glad to be helped by your useful input, before making their own decisions! Thank you in advance for your help.

 

[JOVARN]

Sunday, July 2, 2006
Nissan, Renault eye GM stake
Deal could lead to alliance holding 25% of world market
Compiled from AP, Kyodo
Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA are considering buying up to 20 percent of outstanding shares in General Motors Corp., informed sources said Saturday.