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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Playing the I fund
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robo
Well-known member
The dollar has had a nice run, but should slow down around 87.50. It has been putting the hurt on those of us trying to make short-term plays in the I Fund. In this Market all trades are tricky, but playing the I fund with the dollar headed up . Well, that makes it double tricky!! Make a nice short-term move and the dollar takes back your profits.
Oh well, it's the nature of the beast. It can sweeten the pot or make it sour.
Anyway, the run the dollar is having should run up against some resistance soon.. I Hope!!!! One never knows for sure. Looking for some short-term trades in the I Fund soon with the dollar headed down or sideways.
Support around 83.00. The target for this rally is around 87.50, and we are getting close.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i
Good Trading/Investing
Birchtree
Well-known member
Japan's Small Caps May Bloom
From TWSJ 6/19 by Yukari Kane.
Smaller stocks have taken a supercharged version of the roller coaster ride Japan's stock market has been on for the past year, and some analysts think they are now some of the best buys available in Tokyo. Last year, the Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies jumped 40% on strong corporate earnings and upbeat economic data, but shares of smaller companies easily beat that performance, thanks to their rapid profit growth. This year, as most Japanese stocks have fallen back on fears of higher interest rates in the U.S., markets that lidt start-ups in industries such as technology, finance and business services have again led the way.
The Nikkei is still down about 8% for the year. Japan's largest market for venture firms is down 22% during the same period, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Mothers market, which was created for start-ups that wouldn't qualify for listing in more established markets, is down 43%. The Osaka Securities Exchange's Hercules market is down 38%.
No one is quite sure when Japanese small-cap stocks will pick up. And buying shares of smaller technology-driven companies can be particularly risky, because they can lose everything if bigger rivals come up with better solutions in their industry. Investors will wait untill quarterly earnings reports come out in July and August. If corporate earnings reports are weak, that would mean a continued rough ride for markets. But if they're above the levels forecast, buyers may step in. It's going to take one or two more montrhs before we get a better idea of where the market will go.
The components of the I fund are built from large cap stocks - but I thought the information had some informative value - and it was headed for the trash.Four Year Cycle Low
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=4576&pv=1
Looks like you have a good grip on the wheel, sponsor. My hat is tipped. Have a great weekend.sponsor said:Fivetears said:Four Year Cycle Low
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=4576&pv=1
Looks like you have a good grip on the wheel, sponsor. My hat is tipped. Have a great weekend.
Fivetears,
This is a great article. I had not answered before because this is a very complex matter and I don't understand everything. I read the fine article you posted regarding "Dow Theory and Cycle Quantifications". Look, even if I don't understand all of this area of cycles and other theories like the Gann theories, and other theories like fractal analysis (i.e. chaos theory) of the financial markets, and others, all of these theories are important! They are important attempts by human beings to explain reality and to prognisticate the future. Much of the material I have read has surprising truths to consider. So, we have to keep an open mind and see whether a particular theory is coming to fruition or not. Coincidentally, without knowing much about the Dow theory concepts, there seems to be some sort of alignment in these cycles which we should at least be open to take into consideration. That is what I am trying to do. So thanks again.
Below, I am quoting a paragraph from the article you sent. I don't know if I have interpreted this correctly. I will put emphasis in Bold on a sentence or two. Please confirm if what this means is that we are buying the I-fund and other funds as well at a low point.
QUOTE:
"...
As discussed in the January issue of Cycles News & Views, we also know that because of the fact that the January rally was able to better this previous cycle top, which occurred in March 2005 at 10,984.50, the expected decline into this coming annual cycle low should now be softened. Here's why. In our profiling of this annual cycle, we know that 91.5% of the entire population of these cycles that have topped out in 7 months or more have held above the previous cycle low. This statistical fact is now fully applicable and tells us that we should expect the coming annual cycle low to occur above the April 2005 low, which again occurred at 10,000.50. So, in going with the odds, this logically becomes our expected outlook for the decline into the next annual cycle low later this spring. But, there are two sides to this statistic and the flip side of this very strong statistic would obviously tell us that violation of the April 2005 low would likely be a very bearish omen. I say this because if the market fails to uphold a statistical probability of 91.5%, then obviously something is wrong. However, for now we are working with the most probable outcome.
Once the coming annual cycle low is made, the market will once again rally as the new cycle pushes up. As things are now setting up, it looks as if this will coincide with a summer rally. Since we are due to move into a 4-year cycle low, the statistics tell us that odds are against the success of summer rally. The reason for this is that in going back to 1896 there have been a total of 27 4-year cycles. 16 or 59% of these 27 4-year cycle tops were followed by a failed annual cycle advance. It was from that failed cycle that the decline into the 4-year cycle really got into gear."
Conclusion, help me and others understand whether we are going to have a summer rally and how long this will last, if this theory is correct. So far we have not hit a lower bottom than 2005...
Good weekend!Birchtree said:
I believe that this needs clarification. If you read the article that Fivetears quoted, the paragraph before the one I re-quoted seems to indicate that there is a 12 month cycle right after the 4 year cycle. This 12 month cycle would end in the Spring of 2006 (approximatey last month -- but the low in June 17 is not too far off).
QUOTE:
"... As an example, there is an intermediate-term cycle in the stock market. We know that since 1896, this cycle has averaged 12.39 months from low to low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within this cycle is the advancing portion of the cycle and the declining portion of the cycle. This cycle last bottomed on April 20, 2005 at 10,000.50 and February 2006 marks the 10th month of the current cycle. Furthermore, we know that this cycle low should ideally occur with the coming 22-week cycle low in early spring."
Birchtree
Well-known member
Sponsor,
I did not read the article posted by Fivetears - I'm all cycled out at this point. You will find there are many cycles and cycle strategies - you develope techniques as you learn. I choose not to pay much attention to cycles or the stars - I'm basically a contrarian that sets my own destiny whether that destiny be profitable or unprofitable. There is a lot of junk science out there trying to predict the future - investing is more art than science. That's why we all are given essentially the same potential to succeed - it's the information and sometimes sentiment that may provide the edge. Otherwise you are an individual competing against 50 million frenchmen.
Dennis
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
A while back, the investment firm of T. Rowe Price came up with a portfolio allocation formula on how much percentage you should be invested in stocks.
(110 - your age) * 1.25
ex. If you are 45 yrs. old: (110 - 45) * 1.25 = 81.25%
That means you invest 81% of your TSP in stocks, preferably spread out among the C, S and I funds.
Birchtree
Well-known member
ebbnflow,
Phooy to that suggestion. I'm 59 so theoretically I should have no more than 51% of my portfolio in stocks. Allah, can't make any money that way. Age should not be a primary consideration when determining your level of portfolio aggressiveness. What's more important is the level of investing education and experience - learn to earn. When ever I see some one ready to retire with a power account all I can think about is opportunity lost. It takes money to make money and this site with assistance from others can easily provide potential to maximize your gains. Spaf has retired and is holding a 100% stock allocation - and there are others ready to make some serious green.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Orders for Japanese Chip Equipment Rise 44%
Global orders for Japanese semiconductor-manufacturing equipment surged 44% in May from a year earlier to 169.17 billion yen ($1.47 billion), according to preliminary data released by an industry association.
The book-to-bill ratio for Japanese chip-making equipment manufacturers came to 1.16 in the month, according to the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, an improvement from 1.10 in April. The book-to-bill ratio measures new orders against actual products shipped. A ratio higher than 1.00 means new orders outpaced shipments, implying a good business outlook. Orders for Japanese semiconductor equipment are growing on solid consumer demand for digital goods that use large numbers of chips. Meanwhile, world-wide sales of Japanese semiconductor production equipment, based on a three-month moving average, grew 13.3% on year in May to 145.58 billion yen.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
MSCI had us at 0.006% today. Most of the market move was after noon. I would not be surprised to see a FV today to the positive. Tommorrow's market should be good for the I-fund.sugarandspice
Well-known member
Went up 1 penny today.Sponsor, I'm sorry I didn't catch this post earlier; been really busy in the garage, and at work. I don't really get into allot of the nuts and bolts of computing the FYCL events. I promise you... I am nowhere near the financial intelligence of the article link I referenced. You strike me as an individual looking for some pretty detailed & involved answers to your questions; henceforth that particular link. What I do know more simply is this:
Presidential Term 4 year Cycle Lows: The warning is based on a study of the returns of the S&P 500 during the four-year U.S. presidential cycles between 1945 and 2005. The research showed that on average, the second and third quarters of the second year of an administration produced the worst returns in the S&P 500. The average returns for those two quarters (1945 - 2005) showed a loss of 2 percent and a loss of 2.2 percent, respectively. Still, the fourth quarter of the second year and the first quarter of the third year averaged about 7.5 percent gain each. Given the historical negative performance of the second and third quarters of an administration's second year, the study also found that investors who sat out the second and third quarters outperformed the market 73 percent of the time between 1962 and 2005.
The second year of a presidency tends to be the worst for the market, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
I can send you an Excel Spread sheet (I scribble notes on) that illustrates what I speak of. It covers all TSP Market EOM performance numbers since 2001. You click on 2001 and 2002 tabs... and note the red cells, and the funds involved. Couple this information with the four previous FYCL's, and the coffee turns to tea; you can almost see what I'm talking about. The last two were 20 to 25% in the TSP I Fund. It's been my charted observation, the I Fund has been closely running with the charted pictures of the C & S Funds. I can send you that Excel chart I run too. If you know how to work Excel charts & graphs they're a big visual help. PM me if you're interested.
PS: My 20yo daughter is the actuarial scientist, I’m just a mechanic.
sponsor said:Last edited:Fivetears,
Thanks for the comprehensive explanation you have posted. This confirms my belief that as investors we can take advantage of statistical probabilities, but that there are no full proof systems that can guarantee success all of the time. If we fall within the most probable outcome, this is great! ... , but we can also fall on the exceptional years or months! Therefore, we have to take some risks based on the most likely trends, always watching the technical indicators and keeping some dry powder to apply in order to buy more shares if there is a correction.
Have a great day!Similar threads
