Playing the I fund

[fedgolfer]

... s&p is up about .25% since the IFT cutoff. Very remote chance of a 5 cent FV... I know, I'm grasping for more grains of gold.

 

[Griffin]

EAFE + 0.38% which is a little disappointing given the state of the US markets.

That does seem a bit low - are we looking at an FV?

 

[350zCommTech]

EAFE + 0.38% which is a little disappointing given the state of the US markets.

The boys at MSCI are at it again.

 

[350zCommTech]

That does seem a bit low - are we looking at an FV?

Not yet. We need a little bit more juice.

 

[James48843]

Yes, I knew exactly what you meant. And no, I'm not hearing voices, yet. The only think I hear now and then is the loud nagging from my wife. ie, "Why are you always on the computer?", "Why are you starring at the stock market?", " And when are you gonna finish the kitchen?....blahblahbalah"

That's YOUR wife?

That sounds exactly like MY wife.

Sheeshh... I Didn't know she could be in two places at the same time......:nuts:


Looks like there will be nice follow through tomorrow on the "I". Strong finish on C and S today should propel things overseas. Let's hope, anyway.

 

[mailmanusa]

I say to my wife, "Darlin Im only trying to secure a comfortable retirement for us" She responds with, "Dammit, I want that money now!!!"

 

[sugarandspice]

G--
F--
C+.14
S+.18
I+.08

 

[Griffin]

That's YOUR wife?

That sounds exactly like MY wife.

Sheeshh... I Didn't know she could be in two places at the same time......:nuts:


Looks like there will be nice follow through tomorrow on the "I". Strong finish on C and S today should propel things overseas. Let's hope, anyway.

I'm with you....and I agree about the I-fund too.

 

[fabijo]

I say to my wife, "Darlin Im only trying to secure a comfortable retirement for us" She responds with, "Dammit, I want that money now!!!"

:laugh: Have you been bugging my house? We've had that brief conversation many, many times.

She wants me to work on a monkey program that will make us rich now - not in retirement.

 

[Fivetears]

AORD - .07% :worried:
N225 - .28% :worried:

 

[Griffin]

AORD - .07% :worried:
N225 - .28% :worried:

After a couple of big up days, the reasonable expectation is that the market would form a top. We had good follow through in the OSMs, now we are just waiting on the dollar index to allow us to recieve our returns.

We have found ourselves in this position quite a bit with the I-fund over the past year and it's almost to the point of a becoming a cyclical pattern. That pattern is: the domestics pop, the OSM's follow through, and somewhere around day two or three we see the dollar index top and hold until the consolidation starts. The result is that sometimes the gains in the I-fund are delayed and diminished but we get an extra day to get out of the market before the consolidation starts, ultimately generating a better return for that rally.

Right now it appears that today is shaping up to be that extra day.

I have noticed that in most case's it is better to be in the domestic stocks at the start of any rally and switch to the foreign a day or two into it. Sometimes the dollar index works against you, but just as often, it creates an added opportunity.

Is this a figment of my imagination or are others seeing the same thing?

 

[airlift]

Yes. I have noticed this pattern too. Thanks for the explicit explanation of the current pattern!

 

[airlift]

Do you think that the higher than expected unemployment clains will have the effect of raising expectations of a FED dropping rates? If housing also points to a slowdown, perhaps the dollar might drop further?

 

[Robo5555]

Yes....It seems like the I fund is a day behind the curve. A bad US market on the following day affects the I fund performance for that day.

 

[ayla]

. That pattern is: the domestics pop, the OSM's follow through, and somewhere around day two or three we see the dollar index top and hold until the consolidation starts. The result is that sometimes the gains in the I-fund are delayed and diminished but we get an extra day to get out of the market before the consolidation starts, ultimately generating a better return for that rally.

Right now it appears that today is shaping up to be that extra day.

I have noticed that in most case's it is better to be in the domestic stocks at the start of any rally and switch to the foreign a day or two into it. Sometimes the dollar index works against you, but just as often, it creates an added opportunity.

Is this a figment of my imagination or are others seeing the same thing?

Sorry to be dense but I thought yesterday could be considered a "pop" for the USM. Looks like the I-Fund will be down today. I don't see that as a "follow thru" the way you are describing it, is it?

Or is this down day today (that may be in the neighborhood of 15 cents, have to wait for est from 350z), the "extra day"? Even though it seems like it will be down, do you mean that you think it will really be going down a whole lot MORE tomorrow if the cycle you describe holds true?

 

[Pilgrim]

MarketWatch
Dollar flat after existing-home sales; yen steady on G-7 chatter
Thursday January 25, 10:28 am ET
By Wanfeng Zhou
Yen, Swiss franc continue to rebound as carry trade unwinds
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded flat against other major currencies Thursday, after an economic report showed U.S. sales of existing homes declined slightly more than forecast last month while inventories fell sharply.

"The headline was a bit weaker, though the sharply lower inventory level should support the dollar," said currency analysts at research firm Action Economics.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070125/e85446c7081d4dbab541ca618017da3e.html?.v=2

 

[350zCommTech]

Early estimate: Down .336% or 7 cents.

 

[fedgolfer]

... wow, I was expecting a deeper shade of red. Thx, 350.

 

[350zCommTech]

I have noticed that in most case's it is better to be in the domestic stocks at the start of any rally and switch to the foreign a day or two into it. Sometimes the dollar index works against you, but just as often, it creates an added opportunity.

Is this a figment of my imagination or are others seeing the same thing?

Yes, I've used this strategy a few times. It's actually not as risky as most people think. One just have to set aside his/her fears. That is easier said than done.

 

[350zCommTech]

... wow, I was expecting a deeper shade of red. Thx, 350.

Your welcome,

The dollar is done a little bit after yesterday's spike.