Playing the I fund

[Master]

Today is looking as a FAIR VALUATION day:

The Nikkei went -0.23% with the dollar-yen having a -0.31%. This is a -0.54%
However, it only accounts for less than 20% of the MSCI EAFE index.

MSCI EAFE Index consisted of the following 21 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Most of the index is quoted in Euros, and at the moment the dollar-euro is a +1.15%, which despite a loss in the FTSE -0.48%, DAX -0.29% and most other european markets (except Sweden), means that the I will probably rise today. EFA is tracking at +0.27%.

Nevertheless, I expect consolidation later this week to renter the I market.

 

[Master]

MSCI has it at +0.496%. I should have waited another day before getting into G fund. On the other hand, my fidelity portafolio, (most aggressive - 80% of total IRA/TSP) is soaring, so I have no complaints.

When I wrote the earlier post about fair valuation, the US market was in the RED while there were positive gains for EAFE. Typically, that is when they make fair valuation. As the US market reversed itself, it made it ultimately, a normal day (rather than fair valuation day) for the I fund

 

[Wheels]

Most of the index is quoted in Euros,

The yen and the pound also make up a significant portion of the index.

Dave
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[Wheels]

the US market was in the RED while there were positive gains for EAFE. Typically, that is when they make fair valuation.

While fair valuations occasionally occur as a result of this imbalance, you'll find that large dollar fluctuations after Europe closes are the most frequent culprit.

Dave
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[LA_Guy]

I bailed out of I-fund too soon. I should had practiced what I'd preached about I-fund's movement. That is one step backward, one giant leap forward. Oh well, at least F-fund is getting a penny today. Better not get too greedy.

 

[Wheels]

Japan up another percent tonight right out of the gate. I am missing out on some serious gains and not liking one bit. Problem is, if I thought stocks were due for a pull back a few days ago, then I certainly can't justify buying in now, can I?

Dave
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[SkyPilot]

Wheels, I had to quit worrying about what happened yesterday, and now try to make choices on what I think the market will do in the future. If this is the start of a bull run in the I fund, this may be the best price for some time to come, with only occassional, upredictable and impossible to catch brief pullbacks. Just a thought...

Best of luck!

 

[Spaf]

Sky,
If the market advances, great. I'll wait for it to establish a higher low. April is generally a good month. Buying high is not good unless you can catch a pullback or go in in incriments. If I go in 50% or more and Mr. Market sees that, we will have an immediate 5% correction. So try to sneek in, or when his back is turned. Rgds........... ................Spaf

 

[Soldat]

No good news for the USD as of late. China selling debt, US selling debt, countries investing in euros. Dollar is slipping. Nikkei seems to be in more of a sideways correction than a downward one. Europe is taking a breather but how long before we see a rebound? Sky is the limit, yes, but lets shoot for twenty dollar shares.

 

[sugarandspice]

Up .337 today. With the dollar still dropping will this equate to an FV day?

 

[Soldat]

It may be a FV day or just roll over the dollar to tomorrow. Seems like any correction would be around +.2% FV if the dollar holds here. .2% isnt much and they may not elect for FV.

 

[Wheels]

Up .337 today. With the dollar still dropping will this equate to an FV day?

First of all the dollar didn't drop that much. Also remember, it's only significant moves in the dollar AFTER the European markets close that would trigger an FV. Dollar movements before then will be properly reflected in the EAFE.

Dave
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[sugarandspice]

OK, and what time would you say the European markets close? And what would you define has a significant move?

Would you agree to 11:30 Eastern time for the first one?
And a .50 move up for the Euro after 11:30 Eastern time

 

[mlk_man]

Careful Dave, there's another one lurking around somewhere. I got your back though..........Is it just me or is Rolo back.....................

 

[Soldat]

How far can the Nikkei run without puking? +1.2% right now for the morning session... Hey, Sadakazu Tanigaki I'll take 25% more this year. And you can throw in the currency exchange as a bonus round. I'll be sure to send christmas cards.

 

[LA_Guy]

I'm back into I-Fund again this morning but only 20% (conservative move).

 

[Wheels]

OK, and what time would you say the European markets close? And what would you define has a significant move?

Would you agree to 11:30 Eastern time for the first one?
And a .50 move up for the Euro after 11:30 Eastern time

Sorry. Didn't mean to ruffle any feathers (I'm usually pretty obvious when I am trying to ruffle feathers). Just trying to help. Sounds like you'd rather be left alone though. That's fine.

Dave
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BTW, no FV tonight. Guess there was no significant move in the dollar after...

 

[Rod]

I'm back into I-Fund again this morning but only 20% (conservative move).

Good luck to you! That sucker seems to be full steam here lately.

It was wise to only go 20% b/c once it drops (whenever that will be) it may be hard. You've had such a great profit lately, that 20% should be simply "play money" to you by now and not really hurt you much once it does drop.

If I had some recent profits to sacrifice, I'd probably make the same move.

God Bless

 

[Wheels]

I got your back though......

Thanks. I'll be alright. You've got your hands full tracking the predictions of a certain revisionist.

Dave
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[LA_Guy]

Good luck to you! That sucker seems to be full steam here lately.
God Bless

Thanks.