Gilligan
Member
Well, so much for that theory, is dollar is now close to 1% down. This is the lowest its been all year!
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Well, so much for that theory, is dollar is now close to 1% down. This is the lowest its been all year!
Gilligan
Member
Robo posted the above link to the Elliot Wave chart back on Oct 25 showing the dollar dropping to the 84 area about this time of year.
I can't find much reason for the huge dollar sell off, speculations and some commentary that none of the factors really explains why it is falling so far so fast. How to exploit it? If the dollar recovers after OSM close, it will set up a negative FV and an opportunity to steal some FV on the rebound. BUT, the window is normally between close of OSM (a little before noon) and US close at 4pm. Since US closes today at 1pm, we get only a one hour window, not much time for anything to happen.
What would happen if dollar were to make a huge move, say recover all its losses starting at 2pm, too late to trigger FV? When and how would this show up in prices?
What would happen if dollar were to make a huge move, say recover all its losses starting at 2pm, too late to trigger FV? When and how would this show up in prices?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Early Estimate: -.027 + Thursday's +.025 = -.002, no change.
A currency analyst at Bloomberg TV noted that Japan's markets have been closed due to a holiday, and that this great drop in the dollar will cause lots of clamor when they open next session. He speculates that the direction of the dollar will depend on whether the dollar continues dropping today. If it drops too much, this will be seen in Japan by many traders as a dollar buying opportunity. Japan exporters have been hit badly, of course; and this explains in part, the drop in the Nikkei averages. Someone please translate all of this into what would be the best trade for the I fund? I suppose we are looking at a transition stage, but that the longer term trend is to the upside.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Maybe up a penny.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Dollar Info FYI! This is not looking good for the Dollar!
Forex - Dollar stays depressed, more losses expected
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar stayed depressed at levels close to 19-month lowsagainst the [URL="http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex"]euro[/URL] after sentiment on the currency was dented by comments the fromthe deputy governor of the Chinese central bank. People's Bank of China deputy governor Wu Xiaoling appeared to suggest thatholding the dollar as a reserve currency may not be a wise thing. "The exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, isgoing lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets," hewas quoted as saying in an academic paper. The remarks led to a buying spree on alternative reserve currencies,principally the euro. History seems to be repeating itself, said Divyang Shah at IDEAglobal.com. "The last quarter of the year has been a good one for the euro and a bad onefor the dollar in 3 out of the last 4 years," he said. He believes the euro may rise to over 1.35 usd before players look to booksome profits and then watch markets react. Neil Mellor at Bank of New York noted that the euro's gains on the dollarwas partly due to the day's thin trading conditions, what with most of the USstill closed after Thanksgiving day yesterday. "Ultimately, we expect the euro to enjoy sustained gains above the 1.30 usdlevel; but we believe caution is advisable on a day like today," he added. The euro hit 1.31 usd at one point today before easing back slightly.Another test of that level looks likely. (continued)http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dollar-stays-depressed-more-losses-expected_0017820787.html
Forex - Dollar stays depressed, more losses expected
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar stayed depressed at levels close to 19-month lowsagainst the [URL="http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex"]euro[/URL] after sentiment on the currency was dented by comments the fromthe deputy governor of the Chinese central bank. People's Bank of China deputy governor Wu Xiaoling appeared to suggest thatholding the dollar as a reserve currency may not be a wise thing. "The exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, isgoing lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets," hewas quoted as saying in an academic paper. The remarks led to a buying spree on alternative reserve currencies,principally the euro. History seems to be repeating itself, said Divyang Shah at IDEAglobal.com. "The last quarter of the year has been a good one for the euro and a bad onefor the dollar in 3 out of the last 4 years," he said. He believes the euro may rise to over 1.35 usd before players look to booksome profits and then watch markets react. Neil Mellor at Bank of New York noted that the euro's gains on the dollarwas partly due to the day's thin trading conditions, what with most of the USstill closed after Thanksgiving day yesterday. "Ultimately, we expect the euro to enjoy sustained gains above the 1.30 usdlevel; but we believe caution is advisable on a day like today," he added. The euro hit 1.31 usd at one point today before easing back slightly.Another test of that level looks likely. (continued)http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dollar-stays-depressed-more-losses-expected_0017820787.html
ayla
Member
EAFE is + 0.076%
Added to Thursday's relatively small gain means up .02 since pre-holiday if no FV. Final amount would be 21.31 if I'm correct.
With the dollar falling so much, wonder if that will mean an FV?
With the holiday, may not be anyone around to calculate it. My bet is no FV.
Added to Thursday's relatively small gain means up .02 since pre-holiday if no FV. Final amount would be 21.31 if I'm correct.
With the dollar falling so much, wonder if that will mean an FV?
With the holiday, may not be anyone around to calculate it. My bet is no FV.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Muy Bien Ayla, 2 cents on the button!
Why the Dollar Fell Sharply Against Euro and Pound
Analysts said that the dollar’s drop yesterday, which was accelerated by orders from traders to sell automatically once it fell past $1.30 against the euro, reflected a growing anxiety over Chinese economic policy. China’s central bank holds a large amount of American currency, and speculation has intensified recently that it could begin selling off dollars to avoid being burned if the dollar collapses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/25/b...b278e5d9933f&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss
Analysts said that the dollar’s drop yesterday, which was accelerated by orders from traders to sell automatically once it fell past $1.30 against the euro, reflected a growing anxiety over Chinese economic policy. China’s central bank holds a large amount of American currency, and speculation has intensified recently that it could begin selling off dollars to avoid being burned if the dollar collapses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/25/b...b278e5d9933f&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss
weatherweenie
Well-known member
TOKYO, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average <.N225> opened 0.76 percent lower on Monday as investors sold Toyota Motor Corp.and other exporters after the yen rose to its highest against the dollar in more than three months. As of 0001 GMT, the Nikkei was down 119.04 points at 15,615.56, extending the previous session's 1.13 percent fall.
Show-me
Well-known member
weatherweenie
Well-known member
^n300 +0.31%
^n225 +0.48%
^n225 +0.48%
Show-me
Well-known member
USD index gapped down but is filling it in.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency
James48843
Well-known member
Europe is red across the board this morning.
While the Nikkei is up, the dollar is too against the Yen, and should just about cancel out that move.
Could be a red day for "I" today.
While the Nikkei is up, the dollar is too against the Yen, and should just about cancel out that move.
Could be a red day for "I" today.
Show-me
Well-known member
Certainly possible, but who really knows for sure. TSPTom is G fund and I would suspect RevShark is too. I am leaning that way but missed my IFT deadline Friday. I will reevaluate my position this morning.
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