Gilligan
Member
CommTech, you have been on the money so much, I think that I will let you take over the estimates for me.
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
CommTech, you have been on the money so much, I think that I will let you take over the estimates for me.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Thanks Gilligan,
I'll be more than happy to take over, although it was never my intention. I was just trying to add to the forum.
If my numbers are way off from yours' please post or PM me.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Here is my quick and dirty method of getting an I-fund estimate that anyone can do.
Step 1: Go to http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/
and average the current numbers for Japan Nikkei 225; Europe Euronext 100; and UK FTSE 100.
Step 2: Go to http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
and get the % Change for the Last trade. (You are really interested in the change from noon the prior day if no FV but this is a little trickier to guesstimate from the graph.)
Add the two numbers for step 1 and step 2 (both are percentages).
Now I realize all the stocks are not in the three indexes above and that the currency weights for the dollar index are not correct, but this method does get me a fairly good estimate.
Now to see the trend of the overseas markets, I go to
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/world_charts.html
This along with the trend of the dollar index tells me the direction of the market prior to noon. You will find that the trend of the OSM will follow the trend of the US markets most of the time.
I have used a more complicated method which uses a spreadsheet and requires more data but have found that having a more precise number at 11 am does not tell me that much. To me the trend prior to noon plus the fact of are we up, even, or down is what I really want to know.
Step 1: Go to http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/
and average the current numbers for Japan Nikkei 225; Europe Euronext 100; and UK FTSE 100.
Step 2: Go to http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
and get the % Change for the Last trade. (You are really interested in the change from noon the prior day if no FV but this is a little trickier to guesstimate from the graph.)
Add the two numbers for step 1 and step 2 (both are percentages).
Now I realize all the stocks are not in the three indexes above and that the currency weights for the dollar index are not correct, but this method does get me a fairly good estimate.
Now to see the trend of the overseas markets, I go to
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/world_charts.html
This along with the trend of the dollar index tells me the direction of the market prior to noon. You will find that the trend of the OSM will follow the trend of the US markets most of the time.
I have used a more complicated method which uses a spreadsheet and requires more data but have found that having a more precise number at 11 am does not tell me that much. To me the trend prior to noon plus the fact of are we up, even, or down is what I really want to know.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Early estimate: Up 9 cents.
Dollar seems to have found it's bottom for today. Thanks to North Korea I guess.
Dollar seems to have found it's bottom for today. Thanks to North Korea I guess.
fabijo
Well-known member
Thanks for the useful methods and commentary, FundSurfer. It's always good to see how other people are doing their math and making their decisions.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Final estimate: up 8 pennies.
Dollar continues to fall whcih is good for tomorrow>
Dollar continues to fall whcih is good for tomorrow>
pyriel
Active member
Kind of a double edge sword isn't it? According to the seasonality, Nov-Apr has been pretty strong for stocks. But here we are on an overbought market. No matter what, I think we are in for an uptrend and I believe everyone here when they say a pullback now will make this market healthy for more uptrend. ;-)
Oldcoin
Member
Boy, if only we knew! The last pull back occurred over a 4 to 5 week period. I think these things need time to play out, so we’ll have some up days but more down days. Keep an eye on your indicators and when we’re oversold it’ll be time. Tech is predicting a significant drop, by the sounds of his post and others are only looking for a 3%.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
If the pain continues and we see triple digit loss today, I think you can count on a FV-. I was contemplating a play earlier to the I anticipating a big drop, but if a big drop occured it would more than likely drag down the overseas markets. Then the "giveback" part of the FV would only soften the blow or make it a wash.
Griffin
Well-known member
It ain't that bad
...just the end of the month hucklebuck....if tomorrow's red, then start worrying.
The_Technician
Active member
See Carnac's thread for news on FV prediction....
FundSurfer
Well-known member
HOCUS...POCUS.... Allacazam! Does the new method feature astrology?
Start predicting the FV correctly and I'm sure you'll have everyone's attention.
I appologize to everyone who is getting tired of my dogging Dumbledore about his rants. I thought initially it would be better to ignore him but after reading his post have decided that something needs to be said. I think it is dangerous to let his claims go unchallenged.
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
hahaha..he does provide some comic relief
sugarandspice
Well-known member
EAFE says +.252%= about +.05 cents....I don't see an FV situation today.
The_Technician
Active member
I'm getting tired of them worthless dogging rants of yours myself.....so thank you for the appology.....u know sooner of later my data will catch up so wait around FunSmuf.....
weatherweenie
Well-known member
BEIJING - The U.S. and Chinese governments announced Tuesday that North Korea agreed to rejoin six-nation nuclear disarmament talks, a surprise diplomatic breakthrough that comes only three weeks after the communist regime conducted its first known atomic test. The agreement was struck in a day of unpublicized discussions between the senior envoys from the United States, China and North Korea at a government guesthouse in Beijing.
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