Percentage Theory and Calculating the EFA and the I FUND

[Frizz B.]

12/08/06 AT 4:30 PM

Is there anyone out there who still does not believe.

My earlier statement:

"I am hoping that the I fund will follow true to form and make a correction of the 8 pts and go into the negative."

I fund came true to form, went from a +8 to a -1.

 

[FundSurfer]

I looked at this type estimate a couple years ago and it has merit under some conditions. I've seen the market dive in a different direction than expected and give FV that'll kill ya. I quit tracking it. Your not swinging your full fund in and out like I was so when it happens it probably won't hurt as bad. I think you can make as good an estimate before noon with fresh data rather than yesterdays momentum.

 

[Frizz B.]

12/11/2006

Quote by FundSurfer

"Your not swinging your full fund in and out like I was so when it happens it probably won't hurt as bad. I think you can make as good an estimate before noon with fresh data rather than yesterdays momentum."

I disagree to a point. The fresh data is good to know for long term, but I am talking about day to day, when there is a big difference (+ or – 10 pts) between the two funds.

I don’t use any fresh data on any of the funds, I only use my numbers and I have done quite well. To many times, when the EFA was up or down for the day, the I fund did the opposite.

I only use this information as a guide. In my percentage theory, I only add or subtract a percentage of each fund in according to where the data is at 9am. Approxiametely every 11 points the EFA, 9 pts. for Wilsire 4500 and 10pts for the S&P 500, I will add 1% to their fund. I make trades almost every day.

This is my example for the I fund:

On 11/24 the I fund was a +14 points, and at that time the I fund was at its high of 21.31. The EFA fund was down less than the .5% so I should of only added 1% to my I fund, but I added 10%. At the end of the day on 11/27 the I fund dropped 15 pt but still gained 2 points on the EFA to a +16. Although the EFA was up on 11/28, I still added another 2% to my I fund because of the +16 pts. When the market closed the EFA was up .83% but the I fund dropped another 4 pts. Now the I fund was a –6pts. I am not always this lucky, but it happens quite often. 11/29 EFA had a nice gain at 9am and I was hoping to take the gain and I dropped my I fund to 3%. At closing the EFA gained 1.11% and the I fund gained 1.42% and we were at a zero pt diff.

 

[Frizz B.]

12/15 AT 8:55 AM

The I fund is 8 pts on the high side, with the EFA down at this point. I should only be putting 2 % into the I fund, but since it is 8 pts over, I put 10 % in the I fund hoping for a good drop and then take it back in the next couple of days.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Frizz B.,

I concur with your prediction today.

 

[350zCommTech]

12/15 AT 8:55 AM

The I fund is 8 pts on the high side, with the EFA down at this point. I should only be putting 2 % into the I fund, but since it is 8 pts over, I put 10 % in the I fund hoping for a good drop and then take it back in the next couple of days.

It's only going to drop 3 cents today unless there's a -FV.

 

[350zCommTech]

It's only going to drop 3 cents today unless there's a -FV.

Yikes! Frizz might be getting what he was hoping for.

 

[Frizz B.]

350zcommTech,

I am now curious in the FV, you were right on on the -3 pts, KOOL!!!!

Do you have the link for this information.

The I fund went down 3 points and still gained a point to 9. I will probably be adding another 5% today to my I fund.

 

[350zCommTech]

350zcommTech,

I am now curious in the FV, you were right on on the -3 pts, KOOL!!!!

Do you have the link for this information.

The I fund went down 3 points and still gained a point to 9. I will probably be adding another 5% today to my I fund.

I've been calculating and posting the I fund gains/losses int hte I fund thread for a month or two.

For FV, read this: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3111

 

[Frizz B.]

12/19/06 at 8:50

Thanks 350

The EFA is even at this point, but the I fund is still 9 pts to high. I am raising my I fund to 15%

 

[Frizz B.]

11/20 at 5:48 AM

I do not know to much about the FV, but I really do like my calculations. It usually takes a day or two to make corrections, and when it does, it gives you extra. The I fund went from a +8 to a +9 and even though the EFA gained a +.44% the I fund lost 5 pts, just what I was hoping for. Now the I fund is a negative 6 pts.

Now the quandry, On the 15th the I fund was a +8 and still gained a pt to +9. Now the I fund is a –6, there is a good chance that it will lose some more groung before the correction. Will have to wait till almost 9 am to make a decision on whether I will take some out or not.

 

[350zCommTech]

11/20 at 5:48 AM

I do not know to much about the FV, but I really do like my calculations. It usually takes a day or two to make corrections, and when it does, it gives you extra. The I fund went from a +8 to a +9 and even though the EFA gained a +.44% the I fund lost 5 pts, just what I was hoping for. Now the I fund is a negative 6 pts.

Now the quandry, On the 15th the I fund was a +8 and still gained a pt to +9. Now the I fund is a –6, there is a good chance that it will lose some more groung before the correction. Will have to wait till almost 9 am to make a decision on whether I will take some out or not.

I have the I fund currently up .829% or 18 cents. Just the facts. Not trying to influence your decision.

 

[Frizz B.]

Thanks, that helps, this is my originall thoughts

12/20 at 8:50

With the I fund at a negative 6 pts and the EFA .22% up, I am taking 5% back off the table. I would like to take more, but if history repeats itself, it is a good possibility the I fund will not take back the t6 pts until Friday.

With the new information, I will take 8 % off the table

 

[Frizz B.]

350, You are now my idol, I am definetely going to look into the FV. I was looking for a correction, but not going from a -6 to a +12. Will definately be looking to add the % I took out plus add a couple of more

Thanks
FrizzB.

 

[Frizz B.]

12/26/06

The EFA has change to the Adjusted close, so here is my new numbers, as close of December 22 and what it is at 8:55 am this morning. The I fund is still a +7 pts so I am adding another 5 % to my I fund.

7238
3.297920
2195

 

[Frizz B.]

12/27/06

EFA is doing quite well, and this is what is tough for me. Although the EFA is up .86% which is up 18 pt. The I fund has not has it turnaround, it has gone from a +12 to +10, +7 and yesterday to a +4. History shows that it will go into the negative soon. So the EFA is up 18 pts. The I fund might not do as well. I am still going to take a gain.

 

[Frizz B.]

11/28 at 8:50

My comment for yesterday held true:

“The I fund has not has it turnaround, it has gone from a +12 to +10, +7 and yesterday to a +4. History shows that it will go into the negative soon. So the EFA is up 18 pts. The I fund might not do as well. I am still going to take a gain.”

Well the I fund did make a gain of 19 pts. .86%, but the EFA gained 27 pts. 1.23 % and now the I fund is a –3 pts. With the EFA down 73.15 -14% or -3 pts, I am looking for the I fund to continue the slide and lose a couple of extra points. History doesn’t give me much help, it goes both ways. I am only going to add 3% to my I fund account and see where we end up at the end of the day.

 

[Frizz B.]

Simply amazing, the I fund went from a plus 17 to a plus 34 vs the EFA fund. I am glad I did buy a lot of stock into the I fund. I went back till Jan of last year and this has never happened. The biggest jump went from a +14 to a +16 and then the next day was a -6. The I fund has 34 points to give away. I have no doubt that it will also give more than the 34 pts. How long this will take and how far this will go, not sure. I went 10% in the I fund today and will probably move it to 25% for tommorrow. Will have to wait and see after that.

 

[Frizz B.]

Although the EFA is up today 1.05% I am still going to add another 5% to my I fund. Right now the EFA is at 22.56 and the I fund closed at 22.67. With the 34 pts differential at the start of the day, my only choice is to add to the I fund.