In my FrizzB account talk is my percentage chart. This is the chart I use to make my allocations. Although the I fund hit 21.28 my calculations on the EFA has only gone as high as 20.17. This is what I now use for the high of the I fund. For every 9 pts the EFA goes down, I can add 1 %.
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Percentage Theory and Calculating the EFA and the I FUND
- Thread starter Frizz B.
- Start date
The I fund is a minus 5 pts to the EFA. EFA is at 21.09 to the I 31.04, and with the EFA starting up today, I believe that the I fund will make a good jump today. Hopefully it will pick up the 5 points and gain a couple. So I feel that it is a good day to take some off the table in this fund.
My mistake,
I stated "The I fund is a minus 5 pts to the EFA. EFA is at 21.09 to the I 31.04, (actually 21.04) and with the EFA starting up today, I believe that the I fund will make a good jump today. Hopefully it will pick up the 5 points and gain a couple. So I feel that it is a good day to take some off the table in this fund.
The I fund did pick up the 4 pts and added one for 11/22, and now the I fund is at 21.31 and the EFA is at 21.17, (14 pts higher than what it should be).
If the EFA fund is down for Monday, it will be a great day to buy.
If the EFA fund is up for the day, it might be a good day to buy.
I stated "The I fund is a minus 5 pts to the EFA. EFA is at 21.09 to the I 31.04, (actually 21.04) and with the EFA starting up today, I believe that the I fund will make a good jump today. Hopefully it will pick up the 5 points and gain a couple. So I feel that it is a good day to take some off the table in this fund.
The I fund did pick up the 4 pts and added one for 11/22, and now the I fund is at 21.31 and the EFA is at 21.17, (14 pts higher than what it should be).
If the EFA fund is down for Monday, it will be a great day to buy.
If the EFA fund is up for the day, it might be a good day to buy.
At EFA time 11:30, I have 70.95, which in my calculations is 21.08, and with the I fund being 14 points higher at the close on Friday than the EFA (I=21.31, EFA=21.17), I am going to go a little higher on my percentage of the I fund. In my Percentage theory, I would go 6% at 21.08, but I went 10% on the I fund looking to take some off the table tommorrow if the I fund gives up the 14 points and hopefully gives up some extra points at close today. I am lookinng at an extra 4 to 10 point fall in the I fund.
11/28/06 at 8:50 AM
At closing on the 27th EFA closed at 21.00 down .83% and the I fund closed at 21.16 down .70%.
Although the I fund went down, it picked up 2 more points on the EFA, it is now 16 points to high. At 11:50 AM, EFA time, the EFA was 21.07, (70.95) up .35%, but I still went from 10% to 12% on the I fund. I knew the I fund was 16 points to high and in my I fund theory I was hoping that the I fund would drop the 16 points and a little extra.
11/28/06 at 10:00 PM
HOLDING TRUE TO FORM
AT CLOSING BELL
EFA closed at 21.18 (71.33), a gain of .89%, and the I Fund closed at 21.12 a loss of .19%. The pendulum has swung again. The I fund went from a +16 to a –6 points, a swing of 22 points.
WHAT TO DO TOMMORROW
(11/29/2006)
If the EFA is up, I will take a little off the table, if the EFA is down, not sure what I will do. The EFA would have to be down over 1% for me to add funds to my account.
At closing on the 27th EFA closed at 21.00 down .83% and the I fund closed at 21.16 down .70%.
Although the I fund went down, it picked up 2 more points on the EFA, it is now 16 points to high. At 11:50 AM, EFA time, the EFA was 21.07, (70.95) up .35%, but I still went from 10% to 12% on the I fund. I knew the I fund was 16 points to high and in my I fund theory I was hoping that the I fund would drop the 16 points and a little extra.
11/28/06 at 10:00 PM
HOLDING TRUE TO FORM
AT CLOSING BELL
EFA closed at 21.18 (71.33), a gain of .89%, and the I Fund closed at 21.12 a loss of .19%. The pendulum has swung again. The I fund went from a +16 to a –6 points, a swing of 22 points.
WHAT TO DO TOMMORROW
(11/29/2006)
If the EFA is up, I will take a little off the table, if the EFA is down, not sure what I will do. The EFA would have to be down over 1% for me to add funds to my account.
11/29/06 at 5:39 AM
Tom’s comment in his market post this morning.
“The weakness in the dollar has been making headlines lately. I thought it was interesting that the I fund ended the day in the red.”
I was not surprised at all, I even bought more I fund shares. I have been charting the I fund vs the EFA. With the weakness in the dollar, the EFA did well, up .89%. Since I had the I fund 16 points to high, I felt that the I fund would drop in price, no matter what the EFA did for the day.
“With the dollar down 0.50% yesterday and the late rally in U.S. stocks, the I fund should get that loss back today in fair value alone” “
I hope this is true, with the I fund now at a –6, and if the EFA has a good day, the I fund, HOPEFULLY will have a good jump today.
Tom’s comment in his market post this morning.
“The weakness in the dollar has been making headlines lately. I thought it was interesting that the I fund ended the day in the red.”
I was not surprised at all, I even bought more I fund shares. I have been charting the I fund vs the EFA. With the weakness in the dollar, the EFA did well, up .89%. Since I had the I fund 16 points to high, I felt that the I fund would drop in price, no matter what the EFA did for the day.
“With the dollar down 0.50% yesterday and the late rally in U.S. stocks, the I fund should get that loss back today in fair value alone” “
I hope this is true, with the I fund now at a –6, and if the EFA has a good day, the I fund, HOPEFULLY will have a good jump today.
11/29/06 at 8:30 AM
Tom was correct on the EFA it is now at 72.13=21.42, this is a good day. Hopefully it will also add the 6 pts and the I fund will have a tremendous jump. Just in case it does not give back the 6 points, I am not going to take everything out of the I fund, I will leave 3 % there
Tom was correct on the EFA it is now at 72.13=21.42, this is a good day. Hopefully it will also add the 6 pts and the I fund will have a tremendous jump. Just in case it does not give back the 6 points, I am not going to take everything out of the I fund, I will leave 3 % there
VirginiaBob
Member
Frizz,
I just did a quick backcheck on your ideas although i used a 10 day MA for my 3.xxx factor and doing the switch at 3 cents rather than 11 cents, and here are the results:
24-Jun-2005 through 16-Oct-2006:
100% I-fund Returns: 39%
50% I-fund/50% C Fund: 16%
Switching between C and I when I is above or below EFA fund by 3 cents: 28%
Not sure what this indicates.
I just did a quick backcheck on your ideas although i used a 10 day MA for my 3.xxx factor and doing the switch at 3 cents rather than 11 cents, and here are the results:
24-Jun-2005 through 16-Oct-2006:
100% I-fund Returns: 39%
50% I-fund/50% C Fund: 16%
Switching between C and I when I is above or below EFA fund by 3 cents: 28%
Not sure what this indicates.
VirginiaBob,
It is nice to hear from someone who might think that this is a helpful chart. Not sure what it might mean but any calculations might help you decide what you might do in the future. I use the differential only as a guide. I use the above 10 points to add or subtract my % that I will move the I fund for the day.
I will use my comment of 11/29/06 at 5:39 AM as my example
11/29/06 at 5:39 AM
(Tom’s comment in his market post this morning.
“The weakness in the dollar has been making headlines lately. I thought it was interesting that the I fund ended the day in the red.”
I was not surprised at all, I even bought more I fund shares. I have been charting the I fund vs the EFA. With the weakness in the dollar, the EFA did well, up .89%. Since I had the I fund 16 points to high, I felt that the I fund would drop in price, no matter what the EFA did for the day.)
and although the EFA was up at the 9 am posting time, I still added more to my I fund account. The EFA gained .88% but the I fund lost .19%, and the I fund actually became a –6 pts, this is what I was hoping for. With the EFA up the next day I took almost all out of the I fund.
It is nice to hear from someone who might think that this is a helpful chart. Not sure what it might mean but any calculations might help you decide what you might do in the future. I use the differential only as a guide. I use the above 10 points to add or subtract my % that I will move the I fund for the day.
I will use my comment of 11/29/06 at 5:39 AM as my example
11/29/06 at 5:39 AM
(Tom’s comment in his market post this morning.
“The weakness in the dollar has been making headlines lately. I thought it was interesting that the I fund ended the day in the red.”
I was not surprised at all, I even bought more I fund shares. I have been charting the I fund vs the EFA. With the weakness in the dollar, the EFA did well, up .89%. Since I had the I fund 16 points to high, I felt that the I fund would drop in price, no matter what the EFA did for the day.)
and although the EFA was up at the 9 am posting time, I still added more to my I fund account. The EFA gained .88% but the I fund lost .19%, and the I fund actually became a –6 pts, this is what I was hoping for. With the EFA up the next day I took almost all out of the I fund.
12/07/06 AT 8:50 AM
This is what makes this tuff, although the EFA is up .60%, the I fund is 8 pts higher at yesterdays close, than what it should be, and that is from a –6 on 12/5/06. Do you take money off the table, or will the I fund compensate and go down even though the EFA is up. Quite often the I fund will go in the same direction for 2 to 3 days, so I am going to take the money and run.
This is what makes this tuff, although the EFA is up .60%, the I fund is 8 pts higher at yesterdays close, than what it should be, and that is from a –6 on 12/5/06. Do you take money off the table, or will the I fund compensate and go down even though the EFA is up. Quite often the I fund will go in the same direction for 2 to 3 days, so I am going to take the money and run.
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