Percentage Theory and Calculating the EFA and the I FUND

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Frizz B.

Member
Hello everyone, I am back. It has been almost three years.

If you knew me before, I am a numbers man. I change my allocations according to my calculations, not what they say about the market. I now use a percentage theory, which I will explain later.

So here are my questions.

Question #1

Has anyone figured out how to explain why the EFA and the I fund does not give the same percentages at the end of the day. Ex. Oct 26th EFA went from 7089 to 7040 (-.69%), yet the I Fund went from 20.98 to 21.01 (+.14%)

Question #2

Has anyone figured out how to use this information to use as an advantage in changing your allocations in the I fund.

FrizzB.
 
Frizz, Welcome back. I moved your post to the I fund since the questions you brought up is of importance to those who are trying to figure out the mystery of the I fund.

I can't wait for the answer!!!!!

Pyriel
 
Isn't the EAFE index calculated around noon EST, at the end of the day for the internationals? That is what the I Fund tracks.

EFA is an ETF that gets traded on American soil, so it continues to fluctuate with any currency movement, world news, or supply and demand all the way through 4pm EST. Also, EFA is meant to closely track the EAFE index by investing in a portfolio with roughly the same weights. EFA is not going to be the exact price of all the stocks it represents, but it will closely track the sum of their movements.
 
MLK, You were correct, I was off a day, it was Oct 27

27-Oct-06 70.40
26-Oct-06 70.89
down .49 or (-.69%), yet the I Fund went from 20.98 to 21.01 (+.14%)

My appolgies,
 
First take the EFA (yesterday close (70.20) and divide the number by 3.367183324425, I came up with this number by taking an average of 30 days of the EFA and the I fund diffential, and kept on changing the # until I was happy with this number ), this will give you 20.85. This is the actual close Itha I use my I fund close. Now take the 20.85 and subtract it from the actual I fund close (20.92). It comes up a -7. This tells me that the I fund is 7 pts higher than it should be.

If you use this calculation and go back through August 1st, you will get a difference from -13 to positive 11.

Good examples I fund EFA /by # +, (-)
27-Oct-06 21.01 0.14% 7040 2091 -0.69% (10)
26-Oct-06 20.98 0.72% 7089 2105 0.77% 7
25-Oct-06 20.83 7035 2089
I fund EFA Div by # +, (-)
13-Oct-06 20.44 -0.39% 6905 2051 0.17% 7
12-Oct-06 20.52 0.93% 6893 2047 1.07% (5)
11-Oct-06 20.33 6820 2025 (8)
I fund EFA Div by # +, (-)
2-Oct-06 20.29 0.69% 6794 2018 0.28% (11)
29-Sep-06 20.15 0.00% 6775 2012 -0.22% (3)
28-Sep-06 20.15 6790 2017 2
I fund EFA Div by # +, (-)
20-Sep-06 19.90 0.30% 6701 1990 0.98% 0
19-Sep-06 19.84 -0.15% 6636 1971 -0.93% (13)
18-Sep-06 19.87 6698 1989 2
 
My MY, my theory holds true, big turnaround, now instead of being 5 pts ahead, I is 20.89 to EFA 20.84, now it is 11pts behind I is 21.04 and my EFA is 21.15. Tommorrow should be a good day to sell shares in the I fund.
 
Well, Well

The I fund went from 11pts behind, I is 21.04 and my EFA is 21.15.
Now the I fund is at 21.28 and my EFA is at 21.17
The I fund is 11 points higher than it should be and tommorrow will be a nice day to buy.
 
Frizz B. said:
Well, Well

The I fund went from 11pts behind, I is 21.04 and my EFA is 21.15.
Now the I fund is at 21.28 and my EFA is at 21.17
The I fund is 11 points higher than it should be and tommorrow will be a nice day to buy.
Click to expand...


IMHO, I think you might be looking for something that's not there, but I'm very much intrigued by your work. Keep it up.
 
Believe me, it is there. I have been calculating this since Jan 1, 2006. Take a look at my chart. Try the calculations and see for yourself. Nothing is guarenteed. There are times when the differential is over the 10 mark and you get little change.

24 out of 27 times, 88.89% there is a change of 7 pt or higher
15 out of 27 times, 55.56% there is a change of 10 pt or higher
6 out of 27 times, 22.22% there is a change of 15 pt or higher
and
3 out of 27 times, 11.11% there is a change of 20 pt or higher
and there is
4 out of 27 times, 14.81% there is a change of 6 pt or lower, but never in the negative


DATE I FUND EFA DATE TURNAROUND
11/06/06 (11) 13 11/07/06 24
10/27/06 10 2 10/30/06 8
10/02/06 11 3 10/03/06 8
09/13/06 13 0 09/14/06 13
09/06/06 10 6 09/07/06 4
08/17/06 (4) 10 08/18/06 14
08/03/06 (11) 6 08/04/06 17
08/01/06 27 0 08/02/06 27
07/07/06 10 7 07/10/06 3
06/27/06 10 0 06/28/06 10
06/19/06 11 4 06/20/06 7
06/09/06 19 4 06/12/06 15
06/07/06 13 5 06/08/06 8
06/01/06 (13) (4) 06/02/06 9
05/23/06 21 (3) 05/24/06 24
05/14/06 12 1 05/15/06 11
05/12/06 12 1 05/15/06 11
05/11/06 15 12 05/12/06 3
05/05/06 (10) 0 05/06/06 10
05/01/06 11 (1) 05/02/06 12
04/04/06 (10) (9) 04/05/06 1
03/14/06 (10) (2) 03/15/06 8
03/10/06 (14) (5) 03/13/06 9
02/22/06 (11) 2 02/23/06 13
02/17/06 (10) (3) 02/21/06 7
01/30/06 (10) 0 01/31/06 10
01/11/06 (10) 7 01/12/06 17
 
Frizz B. said:
First take the EFA (yesterday close (70.20) and divide the number by 3.367183324425, I came up with this number by taking an average of 30 days of the EFA and the I fund diffential, and kept on changing the # until I was happy with this number ),
Click to expand...

Sounds very interesting. I was wondering if you have tried using a moving average of the EFA and I fund differential rather than a constant? Or maybe that is what you are already doing. It wasn't clear.
 
Yes, I tried the 22 day, 50 day, 100 day averages, and I still watch it. When the market is up the way it is now, I stayed in the G fund. Now I try not to play anything less than 2 %.

What this calculation will do, it might give you an advantage is when to trade.
Today, the EFA was down around .6% at 9 am and with the -13 pts I felt it was a good time to get some stocks. Now the difference went from -13 to a +4. 17 pt swing.
 
The FVs are supposedly so ordinary folk dont use postdata(the data available to them)?

In all actuality, its a few guys at the top manipulating the returns to their benefit.

Who wouldn't?
 
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